The summoner does not drop the key

guys, take care of that life-less people around here, they will tell you to spend all your life to get a key from Summoner…

There is a saying: “Don’t trust statistics you didn’t falsify yourself!”

(Traue keiner Statistik, die du nicht selbst gefälscht hast!")

Even though its true this dont really fit here. The drop chances of individual items as well as how the drops are actually calculated in this game are well known. Therefore you can just go on and perform e.g. baal runs simply on a sheet of paper if you want to.

By doing this numerically you get quite a good insight in how absurd some drops and bad and good streaks might actually feel.

Also its often better not to think in percentages and chances since we as humans are really bad at this, but rather think about the number of people who encounter such bad luck runs.

E.g. a cumulative chance of 0.1% sounds kinda unlikely, but it still means that on average it happens to 1 out of 1000 players. Given the overall number of current players and keeping in mind that mostly those with bad luck will actually make a topic about this in a forum and you end up with quite a high number of players who come here and think that the loot is broken.

I’m sorry generally I agree with the majority : it’s just bad RNG…But I feel like too the summoner does not drop as often as he should.

When I do keys, I always do Countess/Summoner/Nil.
I have so much more Countess/Nil keys than summoner…Sometimes I got a summoner key, but way less than the others. I feel like too there’s a difference, while he should drop like the 2 others key providers :slight_smile:

Didn’t you say in another topic that you stopped playing this game?

Why are you still here?

Because someone who wants to quit just shut up and quit, while people saying they want to quit are usually looking for some comfort words from their pairs. That’s also for real life too BTW :slight_smile:

I am now collecting broader and more accurate statistics

Because his hobby is forum tralling. :man_shrugging:

I’m having the opposite problem, I’ve done well over 100 nithalak runs and have only found 1 dkey in the last 2 days, but I always run summoner at the same time and find piles of h keys. want to trade 3 of your d keys for 3 of my h keys?

I started collecting statistics from scratch. the intermediate result for 350 races is 1 to 14. 25 keys. the chance is 7%. I will continue to collect statistics further. there should have been not 25 keys, but 31!! Which is very significant !! The chance is not 9%, but 7%!!

I didn’t get 6 keys!!!
This is a quarter of all the keys extracted, 25%!!!

I quit the game not the forum, the forum is actually more fun that this stupid game with no drops and no end-game.

The cumulative probability for getting only up to 25 keys in 350 trials is still roughly 12%.

Sorry to say but this is far away from a clear statistical deviation.

You know that your behaviour is rediculous, right?

42 keys from 350 attempts is 12%. But not 25 keys. The difference is almost double, even a statistical error cannot explain such a serious deviation.

got like 12 keys in under 50 runs so no problems there from my perspective

Sorry, all your missing keys dropped in my games. I recently got 5 keys from 12 runs.

Thats why i stated cumulative probability of getting 25 keys or less.

You can not easily think i made 350 runs, chance is 9% so i will get 31 Keys. Thats not how probabilities work since your chance to see the average outcome in a limited number of trials is not 100%.

Therefore i mentioned that if the drop chance is 9%, after 350 runs the chance of getting maximal 25 keys is still 12%, therefore roughly 12 out of 100 players will only get 25 keys from 350 runs Just like you. thats why its not a significant deviation from the expected result, you therefore can not conclude that the drop chance is only 7%. Well to be honest you can do that, but the chance that your sample size is too small to reflect the correct underlying distribution is just to high.

1 Like

750 races.
the chance of 1 to 14
received 53 keys
should have received 68 keys
15 keys
were not received, which is about 30% of the total amount
, almost a third of the keys I receive less
750 runs is already enough for statistics
, what is the reason that the keys fall out by almost a third less than they should fall out ?

WarGiraffe gets it. This is how you play D2.
Trading.

I have the same problem. I just had about 50 attempts in 2 hours and no single key. Even started googling the problem and now I’m here.