I like to use my trusted balanced six-sided die. While each of the sides always has the same 16.67% chance of ending up each roll, after a few rolls it starts getting weird if a specific side doesnt end up
Say we’re looking to get the 4 side ending up (because I like it ) and we roll the die 25 times, we’d already be looking at 99% probability of having seen the 4 side at least once
But we’re in the 1%ers that didnt saw it so we roll another 25. At 50 rolls we’re at 99.99% probability of having seen the 4 side at least once
Yet we’re that unlucky 1 in 1000 guy that just did the 50 rolls and hasnt seen the 4, so we do more 38. At 88 rolls theres a 99.99999% that we saw the 4 at least once.
But (you guessed it), we’re that 1 in 1 million unlucky guy and we keep rolling.
126 rolls - 1 in 1 billion
164 rolls - 1 in 1 trillion (we gonna have to get more people rolling on this planet to “make sure” this guy exists)
202 rolls - 1 in 1 quadrillion and we finally saw it
So while the probability is always the same each roll, with repetition it starts to get highly unlikely to not see the side we looking for at least once.
And it wont matter the least if we do those rolls in a row or 1 roll each month
But hey, we can always be the guy that needs to roll the die a 203rd time
15 chars x 20 people per group is 300 times per week he has done a min of 10 weeks farming = 3000 and nobody has seen it in his groups thus making it a lower chance per sa then love rocket /sha mount .
before 8.1 the drop was 1% / 30 that means a drop of 0.03%, the drop of the mounts from world boses of pandaria is 0.3%, this means that it is a design error of the personal loot sistem.
Since Blizzard’s hotfix in 8.1 supposedly the drope increased to 1% at least in the mythical mode, it is unknown if it was also corrected in heroic and normal.
Since 8.1 I saw two reds droped in mythic but no green at the moment.
Again, that is not how it works. It doesn’t matter how many people are in the group, the drop rate is still the same. If I solo it 300 times, that gives me 300 chances of seeing a mount drop. If I do it with 20 people 300 times, that also gives me 300 chances of seeing a mount drop.
