But that’s the problem with Baine rigth now. It’s not that he has acted agaisnt Sylvanas. Is when and what maked him stands out.
What makes Baine snaps and take action? It’s not Sylvanas burning thousands of innocents and forcing the Horde into a full-scale war. It’s not Sylvanas blighting her own troops and rasing them as undeads puppets. It’s not seeing his people bleed and die in a war that he knows is unjust and “dishonorable”.
No. What makes him snaps it’s to see a brother of Jaina turned undead and being torutured. That’s what makes him take action.
His people’s bodies desecrated and blighted during the siege of Lordaeron? That’s worth it an ironic “for the Horde" (and not even since he says that because of Saurfang “being left behind”, even if it was his wish). His people dying in a stupid war? That’s perfectly fine. But a human being tortured after being raised? Oh man, that’s too much. Now it’s the time to stand against Sylvanas.
That’s why people complain on him and call him a hypocrite. What Sylvanas does to Derek is a perfectly valid reason to fight her. But the burning of Teldrassil, the desecration of tauren, orc and trolls bodies, the nonsense war Sylvanas have taken the Horde, all those were reasons as much as valid as Derek’s torture, if not more. And all those existed way before Jaina’s brother raising.
But it seems that, for Baine, they weren’t enough reasons to stand against Sylvanas. Only when a random Alliance character who Baine have never met before is suffering an unjust sittuation, he dares to stand out. And that’s the crux with Baine. He seems more interested in Alliance lives than in Horde ones.
It happened before after Taurajo and in Theramore. It goes with his character. He is the leader with closest bonds with the Alliance. And that’s fine, he fits that role. But when most of the times he takes the spotligth he tends to act more in line with Alliance wishes that with his people interests, then its when his position as leader is doubted.
Of course, the problem in the end is always the same. Blizzard’s bad writing, not knowing what to do with the story and their famous “Continuity exists to enhance a story…”
I would differ with that. He is weakening the Horde. That’s objectively true. He is helping the Alliance while hindering the Horde war efforts. What he is doing is indeed helping the Alliance to win, but in a way that shows them there are people in the Horde which can be counted on and can be allies.
And I think gamble is the right word. Your example of the strike is a really good one. But in this case Baine only knows the “Alliance’s prime manager” is eager to “give the Horde better conditions”. As far as he knows, Jaina, Genn and Tyrande hate the guts of the Horde, and the rest of the leadership doesn’t have too much sympathy for the Horde. And he should know that Kul’tirans, Gilneans and Kaldorei have still a huge grudge with the Horde.
Of course we, as the ones reading the story, know that Genn and Jaina have been toned down and more important, that the game limits don’t allow for a complete Horde extermination. But Baine doesn’t know that. He only knows Anduin’s stance in trying to save as most as he can. So he is helping the Alliance hoping Anduin can calm/convince all those parts of the Alliance which would ask for dismantling the Horde if not just simply extermination at the moment of the Alliance victory. A pure “all or nothing” gamble.
Of course the other option would be to help Sylvanas and bet for her winning the war. Which is another gamble, and one which doesn’t fot Baine moral compass.