I absolutely agree, that TBC fresh should have happened on release day, I was actually always expecting this and was very disappointed when it did not come. It did kill my motivation for TBC to be honest.
I cant confirm nor deny what will happen to either game, I only know there is talk about what they can do to their “classic”.
Personally, based on the high demand for TBC fresh on release, plus the big issues with boosting, TBC is not doing that well but it is where the money is at. I could imagine that TBC fresh would attract players that are currently not playing and it would be able to generate subs.
This is where I believe a Vanilla fresh doesnt have an as big potential, unless Vanilla would see some significant changes, which however, I dont see will happen.
The team behind vanilla is much smaller than behind TBC and with the current issues at Blizzard HQ´s, it seems unlikely that they would invest into a new classic vanilla team and if they would, fresh realms + client would not come out in the next weeks either, but maybe next year.
I was asking a few friends who are still working in the gaming industry and one of them did chat to someone at Blizzard about this topic just a while ago.
He was actually doing the interview about D2R, but in the process also asked about some WOW related stuff. There are different teams working on the various games, but some information still slipped through.
The announcement was the confirmation of the information given to me, thats why I shared what I heard before. Without the announcement, I wouldnt have shared it.
What exactly happens now, I dont know, the talks are obviously made public, but what the results will be, nobody knows yet and I believe this is also exactly how their announcement is to be understood. They did not confirm any results, just that there is a thought process going on and more will be made public in the future.
History has shown however, that the community is often expecting a lot more than what will be delivered, so I would try to stay calm, else the disappointment might be very big.
My bet is still on TBC with disabled boosting and other stuff that is not well received, a vanilla fresh might come too, but I doubt with any major changes as the team just isnt big enough for that.
And in that case, the question remains if the interest is big enough for such a fresh realm if we talk about people who would stay there for 2 years and not rush through content and leave afterwards.
Because this seems like a big issue with Vanilla fresh, while it will be crowded in the first few days, it seems difficult if it comes to competing with classic era, as people wont leave their current progress behind and start from scratch, only to then maybe having to start from scratch again once the fresh realm becomes old or empty.
This issue a TBC fresh doesnt have, as there all content will be new until Sunwell is out, which is unlikely to happen before summer 2022.