This means that if every person in the planet were to run the Countess (H), the average of all of their results would be some approximation of 1 key in every 68 runs. Some people would experience slightly different results and some outliers would experience vastly different results. This is usually represented (and many of you have seen it before) as a bell-shaped graph. All probabilities are like this. But those outliers would likely say the game is bugged. Little do they know.
Now, for a single person the probabilities are calculated using a so-called binomial probability function, which is a function that calculates probabilities based on that bell-shape.
So here are some interesting facts about the countess key drop, that you can verify yourself on any online binomial calculator:
The probability that in 68 runs you will encounter exactly 1 key: 37%
The probability that in 68 runs you will encounter 1 or more keys: 64%
The probability that in 68 runs you will encounter 0 keys: 36%
The probability that in 68 runs you will encounter 1 or 0 keys: 73%
The probability that in 68 runs you will encounter more than 1 key: 26%
And in case you are curious after doing 200 runs:
The probability that in 200 runs you will encounter exactly 1 key: 15%
The probability that in 200 runs you will encounter 1 or more keys: 95%
The probability that in 200 runs you will encounter 0 keys: 5%
The probability that in 200 runs you will encounter 1 or 0 keys: 20%
The probability that in 200 runs you will encounter more than 1 key: 79%
I am your fan from now on :)). Whish I had your patience to compile such an answer for the likes of Danutz and other rng deniers…all stemming from the lack of understanding of how probabilities and statistics work. You must train your brain in this direction.Probabilities don’t come natural. Our brain is hardwired to search for patterns and meaning. Being unlucky is hard to accept.
Keep up the good work!
This one for single roll, I guess? Your description is correct, but numbers are wrong.
There are 5 item slots rolled. Each can be a key of terror. I believe, once in 20 years one lucky person get all 5 keys together from 1 Countess. In general, it means that drop chance is about 1:12-1:14, not 1:68.
watch your frames man, ist old game, look /fps in chat window, is over 140, make it in options to 40-60, thats helps me to found things. the Bug is Real!
Even I do not really think the fps can influence drops, who knows, if in their random generator formula introduced fps number, then now when fps go above 60(20 years ago was max 60, even less), can be even 240-360, then depending on their formula e.g. overflows can occurs and range on generated itmes can be much more restricted. Anyway, just a theory with no proofs indeed.
Guys, anybody seen an Berserker Axe drop? white, grey, blue, rare, does not matter. I have not seen even 1 until now doing lot of Diablo, Ball, Cow runs.
This topic is a perfect example of what is a random distribution. If everyone has all the key all the time, we should say without than the RNG is bugged
