I am very certain that is not how it works… you always see way less elite than anything else.
From my perception and again this might be wrong but it is a qualified guess…
On hell, you probably have less than 5% chance to get elite items, like 70% normal, 20% exceptional and last bit elite… something in that ballpark.
My guess would be it might be a bit less than that… I almost feel like recording what i find to see the spread, not sure I can be bothered though hehe… a bit of a hazzle.
But from my many many hours of playing D2:LoD back in the days, this level of droprates, seems totally within the norm. Not less for sure.
Random in computer programming is something mathematic, random number is pseudo-random, software calculate it by putting into an equation multiple “variables” available, e.g. date, time… … Computers does not have the possibility to get a random number from the universe which is perfect random, it need to calculate one based on what it have available.
In D3 they fixed I think at a moment their Random Generator because was bugged. Having a bad random number generator will do, e.g. some items never drop…
By the way, Countess have a chance of 8% to drop Terror Key, I did 100 runs and not get even 1. random of course, but 8% means 1 in 13 runs I might get one… does Countess still drop Terror key or they change it?
If its indeed 8% chance getting none is possible but would be really unlucky and should be well below 0.1%.
Aside from that there are a lot real random number generators working e.g. with atmospheric pressure data or any other real random source. But i guess there is no reliable information about what d2r actually is using?
Unfortunately for you , this is how the game works.
As many mentioned before , the game roll a dice and an item from a pool of thousands of items, the things that matter towards the how good an item can be is the mob level and your character level and your magic find attribute.
I was playing D2 back in the day and i remeber that i hadn’t found a single soj even though i was farming 24/7 ,yet there were players with low mf on nightmare that got it. This is the magic of the game… RNG its like a gambling. This is why this game is so addictive because you can farming all day and got bad drops and bam, you get one awesome drop and you forget the hours you have been farming the same spots for hours.
I actually do feel there is something up with the loot today because I noticed my cowruns only gave complete crap today on hell. Felt like loot on normal. I even thought to myself it was odd, and now I read this…
“Theoretical”, “for me”, are all meaningless claims.
A cow on Hell has a 1:11021 chance of dropping a white Archon plate with 0 MF on players 1.
So stop this nonsense with “theoretical” made up numbers which are far away from reality. It’s completly worthless. Kill 11000 cows, and maybe you get lucky and ONE archon plate drops. If more than one drops you are SUPER lucky.
But that’s it. Any expectation higher than that is bullshit.
The best probability of a white Archon plate is 1:9666 in the entire game. So anyone claiming they saw “plenty of those” in regular LoD is just talking shit OR got super lucky RNG back in the day.
For the drop chances i am using silospen’s drop calculator, if someone has a better source let me know.
I assume for all calculations that there are 400 monsters on average within the cow level, i guess in reality there might be less.
First i calculated the mean possibility over all regular monster to drop a certain elite type item. From that i calculated the possibility that such a hypothetical mean drop chance monster on hell drops any elite type item at all.
As the result: If you kill 400 random monsters on hell difficulity ( or cows since their chance of dropping elite type items is quite close to the mean chance for most items ) you should get at least 3 elite type items with 97% certainty.
So just go and make like 10 or 20 cowruns on hell and you should end up with around 20-30 or 50-60 elite type items of any kind. If you’re looking for a specific elite type item e.g. a certain shield or whatever, the chance will obviously be way smaller, see examples below.
Item | Number of items | complete cow lvl runs for 97% certainty
But nevertheless, if you made lets say 20 complete cow runs and only end up with 1 or 2 elite type items at all, than there might be a problem indeed, or the drop chances the calculator spits out are off, or you are really really unlucky.
Edit : Since it seems like there was some confusion i added > to the number
Thats exactly NOT how it works. With 13 Runs there is still a ~33% chance that you didn’t get a key.
Schools should really teach probability calculation.
May this would save us from some of this threads.
There are always people everywhere who just shout but don’t read and mostly don’t want to understand things
Holdarnyek
… Thats all, very simple, no matter the MF no matter the exact count of items just: D2 x/y <> D2R x/y. It must be the same and 100 run * 400 - 450 cow drop (40000 - 45000 drop!!) … So I’m over 11kows:) … you don’t have to think about rare, mf, nothing … just divide D2 x/y and D2R x/y and compare.
Dude, trust me, don’t even try.
They just don’t get it. I tried. Their brain can detect patterns in D2 drops and they remember seeing top tier elite drops everywhere 10 years ago and therefore loot is bugged and so it was written and so shall it be.
Save yourself the frustration and just go kill some cows
edit: just read the post above mine: absolutely convinced 100 runs is enough to see a pattern and 40k kills is a big enough number to make claims of bugged drops.
If you can succeed where I failed, kuddos to you though. Good luck
Nononononono … Im sure almost only 1-2 man understand the problem.
Not the exact count of elite items are funny.
The ratio of D2R low lvl / high lvl versus D2original low level / high level.
I cannot describe it in more detail.
There is no problem with the uniques/set/etc, not the count of elite drops. Only the ratio of … dont write it again.
The fact that people are “calculating” something here based on the actual roll is very funny.
You would need a pool of several million samples to have at least any degree of accuracy.
Why? Because some drops in this game go into tenth thousand of a percent chance to drop. So to converge at an approximate percentage, your sample size must need to be enormous. The claims like “I ran all weekend” and “my quest drop was garbage” are statistically insignificant.
If you are really that interested to get to the bottom of this, there is only one way to do it.
Examine the actual roll formula calculation in the game resources/executable. This is the only way to be absolutely sure. Everything else is just gossip and speculation.