I’ve had it. Wow is so bad it’s funny, and this season “theme” isn’t a theme, it’s a mystical chase for an item that doesn’t even drop. I’m paragon 500 and only missing 1 item from my item hunt. WTF were you thinking? At this point, I’m not buying d4. I’ll find another company that values…well anything. Gluck with your season 26, the season of no season.
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ya i have no intention to continue playing until they increase the drop rate. complete waste of my time. ive done many grifts and havent had a single drop. whats the point
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can’t believe you started in the first place after they nerfed everything post ptr
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I guess it is random. I had my first two at around p150. I have 4 more since then at p400. But I’m hardcore. So no way I’m using them. Wish i could give them away.
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same i am para 900 had 2 so far
P 970 here, Ive used 5 so far, another 4 are waiting in stash.
Ive joined a party and played like 6 echo nightmare. My stash is full with 125 whispers, the only thing I need are the gems to sacrifice.
So the question is what is the actual drop chance? 0.05, 0.1 0.5 percent? What’s the chance?
What is the GUARANTEED drop rate, like 100th Grift or 150Grifts?
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There is no “guaranteed” drop rate. There seems to be a statistical, average drop rate of 5% in GRs from 90 and up. But no guarantee.
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“guaranteed” I meant instead I should used “nearly guaranteed”. Based on % calculation you can be certain that you get n pieces within a certain tries on x% chance.
Example of such calculator to show what I’m thinking about is if you search for chance calculator(s) on google you will find them easy.
Other games I play like Warframe, they state these stats on drop chances as “nearly guaranteed”.
On average, yes you would expect to see a certainty. Meteorblade is the math guy here but I’m certain that the smaller the chance of something is, the more likely it’ll be that you’ll need more tries before you’ll see the average result.
If a chance is 50/50 most people will get that result within a few tries. If the chance is much smaller there will inevitably be some people with “bad luck” who will need more tries than the majority to get the average results. Just like there will also be “lucky” people who over a number of tries will get better results.
Furthermore, as we are dealing with a complex computer program there is always the possibility og bugs, hickups or other unintended happenings.
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A lot of videos I’ve seen (and my own personal drops) seem to suggest the drop rate for the screams is around 5%. This means there’s a 95% chance for each GR you complete that you will not get a scream. Now, when it comes to statistics, you’ll get things like confidence levels, e.g. at this drop rate, how many GRs would you need to run to be 90% certain of obtaining a scream? Well, how about some maths…
- Chance that a Petrified Scream will not drop from a GR Guardian = 0.95
- Chance that no Petrified Screams will drop from X GR Guardians = (0.95)^X
Okay, so how about we put in some values for X…
- Chance that no Petrified Screams will drop from 10 GR Guardians = (0.95)^10 = 0.5987
- Chance that no Petrified Screams will drop from 20 GR Guardians = (0.95)^20 = 0.3584
- Chance that no Petrified Screams will drop from 30 GR Guardians = (0.95)^30 = 0.2146
- Chance that no Petrified Screams will drop from 40 GR Guardians = (0.95)^40 = 0.1285
- Chance that no Petrified Screams will drop from 50 GR Guardians = (0.95)^50 = 0.0769
So, if you want 90% confidence of obtaining a Petrified Scream, you need the lowest value of X for which (0.95)^X is under 0.1 and that happens when X is 45, i.e. you need to do 45 GRs to have a 90% certainty of getting a scream.
Right, this is what I ment. Thanks @Meteorblade.
So the question is if people see the drops ~50 runs or more than that, because if more than it is likely they’ve lowered the drop rate even further.
BTW, 45-50 GR runs seems a LOT! Its a hell of a grind that is for sure. 
Season 26 is getting to be the lost season, I have played for hours and hours and found no petrified scream. It is a pity for the devs, but season 26 for me is just a no-season experience. Looking forward to season 27 and quitting this nonsense chase for a non existent key or whatever it is, I will never see it!
No 5% for me, I have got tons of Ramaladni’s gift but after about 100 GR’s no petrified scream for me, for me personally the chace is 0%! Please stop this season and start season 27. It feels like being in between seasons right now, nothing new. I really dont believe ther even IS a petrified scream key, I havent seen it and will never see it, lost work for you devs, better put your energy in season 27!
Im at paragon 1000 now and got 8 key drops total for seasonal. Worst patch ever…what is point of seasonal if you cant PLAY it!!
It’s funny, but i really don’t care about PS, and i have 3 so far, used 2 and got CD rank 68 and 75. I’m currently P 409 and first one dropped around P 200, but last 2 dropped yesterday and today, at GR 40… No point of using it since i have spent most of my gems to upgrade my gear with 2 CD. Seeing people farm those keys and don’t get any, is sad, but i can tell if i was farming those keys i would also got none, knowing my luck, i mean every time i need or farm something i get everything else except what i want, so frustration is real and known to me. Keep it up guys and girls…
Edit: heh, just got another one… damn…
i hear you dude
i am p950, had 2 drops so far, been only doing sg90-100 and nothing
i am here to play season otherwise it is useless, worst season ever, and i have done them all and played HC aswell
so i quite the season and uninstalled the game
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I ran over 85 GR90 plus and got no petrified screams. Have more Primal then screams. Very discouraging to say the least. What’s the drop rate 1 in every trillion!
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According to Season Summary, I have run 2704 Rifts (this includes Greater & Nephelam) & had 98 Petrified Screams drop on my EU SC account & on my NA HC account, I have run 34 Rifts for 6 Petrified Screams. Purely RNG to if they drop or not hence why people are farming them by running sub 90second GR90’s rather than pushing higher rifts in less time like in previous seasons. My drop rate seems to be sitting in the higher ranks amongst my friends in the game but tbh they are more of a gimmick than anything else as after running 3 or 4 in a row, they get extremely boring, and once you start hitting 2000+ paragon, the XP gain from hitting 150 is around enough to gain a 1 or 2 paragon each run, which in the time it takes to complete a Nightmare, it isn’t much more than doing a GR or 2 in the same time would give (but with less loot not including the Whisper of Atonement). I would have preferred to have seen a better season theme tbh but I would assume that the development teams for the Diablo series were concentrating on the D2R ladder & Immortal rather than D3 this time around
Assuming a 1:4 ratio of Nephalem Rifts to Greater Rifts (e.g. by running the NRs solo with an emanating follower for extra GR keys) that means 0.8 * 2704 = 2163 GRs, from which you got 98 screams, which is 2163:98 = 22:1, which is roughly a 4.5% drop rate. Sounds well within the margin error for the 5% drop chance people were suggesting was the case.
If you were levelling up gems in GRs anyway, getting a gem from Rank 0 to Rank 125 is going to be a minimum of 25GRs anyway, and you’d expect to get a scream from that many GRs, so essentially you’re getting a “free” Rank 125 whisper for each Rank 125 legendary gem you level. If the GRs take 90 seconds each, and it takes you a couple of minutes to run the Echoing Nightmare, each whisper is essentially saving you 40 minutes of gem levelling.
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