Reforging - always the same chances?

General Discussion
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My fingers hurt, my mouse got sweaty. I just finished reforging the Band of Might ring in the Public Test Realm 100 times (yes - a hundred) hoping to get an ancient…

Zero. I don’t believe I’m that unlucky. I gave up for now, maybe after a nap and coffee I’ll reforge a hundred more.

The general idea is that reforging a legendary brings an ancient in 1 in 10 times, though some people claim it’s 1 in 40/50. For me the latter seems truer.
My question - are the rules always the same, regardless if it’s a ring or chest armor or anything else? I noticed with some items I get an ancient fast, while with this ring - 100 tries brought nothing.

I also heard some people said the chances get bigger in some moments of the game, for example after finishing a GR… I don’t think it’s true but I’m really puzzled.

Or maybe PTR works differently?

Any light on this matter would be greatly appreciated. If I can’t get an ancient in 100 tries, reforging seems to be total nonsense, unless you do bounties for 3 months day and night :grinning:

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When an item drops, is crafted, gambled or reforged, it always has an average chance of 1 in 10 to be ancient and 1 in 400 to be primal. It does not matter what type of item is in question, the propabilities are still exactly the same and equal. Note that those are average chances for a very long term. There can be massive fluctuations in short term skewing your perception.

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Yes.

Yes.

It is 1 in 10.

These are the same people that have lucky socks, wear tin foil hats and only walk around town anti-clockwise, i.e. this has no impact on the 1 in 10 chance what-so-ever.

No. It’s still 1 in 10.

However, can I just mention that, as you’re on the PTR, every GR you run probably gets you 600-800 bloodshards. The PTR Jewellery cache costs 50, so you can buy 12-16 of those per GR run. Each of those caches is guaranteed to have a Band of Might in it. So, rather than standing at the Cube reforging, just keep doing some GRs.

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Never mind - my bad, sorry, my item wasn’t level 70… Thank you for replies!