I collected 25000 forgotten souls for my Barbarian to reforge the “Heel the Savages” boots as a primal ancient. 0.25% chance for primal reforge and drop rate. That means 400 reforge results 1 primal! 20000 forgotten souls should enough for 1 primal. I spent all of them, all 25000 forgotten souls that means 500 reforge and I didn’t even get 1 primal!!! That 0.25% chance from Blizzard is a lie! Very unfair system. I wrote message to the customer support and they ignored my questions and not given any answer to me. They don’t want to compensate me with giving back my 25000 forgotten souls or the “Heel of Savages” primal ancient boots. The game does not perform the 0.25% chance of promise! This is not my fault, I am a loyal player of Diablo 3 since 2016. Do I not deserve a fair reforge system for my thousands of hours invested into this game?
One more thing. Legendary items with no special powers should be removed from the game, just wasting the chances from primals and has no point being in the game without special affixes. Please remove them. Primal ancients are strong but not so strong to have only 0.25% chance. This game is old, it should be the time to increase that chance to 1% from 0.25%. Thank you, and sorry for the long description.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers
In probability theory, the law of large numbers (LLN) is a mathematical theorem that states that the average of the results obtained from a large number of independent random samples converges to the true value
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value
Informally, the expected value is the arithmetic mean of the possible values a random variable can take, weighted by the probability of those outcomes.
Primals being 1 in 400 legendaries is the Expected Value, i.e. the average number you’ll get over a huge amount of attempts, i.e. if you reforged a million times, you’d expect that roughly 2500 of the results would be primal.
You reforged 500 times…
- Chance that a reforge results in a primal = 1 in 400 = 0.0025
- Chance that a reforge results in a non-primal = 399 in 400 = 0.9975
- Chance that none of X reforges will result in a primal = (0.9975)^X
- Chance that none of 500 reforges will result in a primal = (0.9975)^500 = 0.28605
Over a quarter of players doing 500 reforges would get exactly the same result as you did, i.e. no primal.
For fun, let’s take a look at some higher values of X…
- Chance that none of 800 reforges will result in a primal = (0.9975)^800 = 0.13499
- Chance that none of 1200 reforges will result in a primal = (0.9975)^1200 = 0.04960
- Chance that none of 1600 reforges will result in a primal = (0.9975)^1600 = 0.01822
- Chance that none of 2000 reforges will result in a primal = (0.9975)^2000 = 0.00669
Yes, that’s right, even with 2000 reforges, roughly 1 in 149 players wouldn’t get a primal in their results.
This is a fair system. You not understanding that system, or the statistics of low-chance outcomes, doesn’t alter that.
Just looked at the Heel of Savages boots. There is no legendary power on them…(that can roll with a high or low range) and there is no other damage modifier like crit chance, crit damage or elemental damage…
Ordinary ancient Heel of Savages, that can be augmented, would be quite sufficient. So you wasted a lot of mats for no good reason.
Primal ancient items are vastly overrated compared to ancient items.
Also don’t forget that the cube recipe 11 can give you one primal, but choose the item wisely.
Yes, but shiny red things sure do look nice…
I already used that cube recipe to make one primal, but only one can be equipped. Heel of Savages is a set, it has legendary power, when the set is 2, 4 or 6 pieces.
True, but the bonus from the set is fixed. We always get the full amount even without ancient or primal ancient items. What I was talking about is the possible legendary power on a supporting item that can roll with a range. For example the ring Convention of the Elements where the damage can be from around 150% up to 200%.
There are some supporting boots that roll with a damage range where it would be desirable with ancient ones with high damage or primals with max damage.
Like Crudest boots for monk or Nilfur’s Boasts for wizard.
Still, even then primals often drop with crappy or less desirable affixes. I usually get a Focus or Restraint ring from drops in season play but I have never gotten one that I could use (because they have always come with main stat, vitality and life per hit or something like that).
Thank you for your time to explain this, I appreciate it. The funny thing is, before I reforged one primal from approx 400 attempts of reforging, it was promising.
When I go in the Vision of enmity approx after collecting 400 legendaries always 1-2 primal drops from monsters. Almost with with mathematical precision after approx. every 400 legendaries 1-2 primal drops. But not that primals what I wanted. That is the 0.25% chance as promised from blizzard. So why did this not happened in the cube as well? I am not good at maths, never been good, but I find it unfair.
Because the 1 in 400 rate is the average and you can have long streaks of bad luck with a drop rate this low. As I showed with my previous post, 1 in 149 players still wouldn’t get a primal after 2000 reforges / drops.
You may feel that way, but it’s not.
Thank you for your time and helpfulness.
Blizzard does not say there is a 0.25% chance - ie - 1 in 400
That is the average stat that players have collectively ascertained.
That means there is no guarantee of a primal even if 3000 legendaries fall