I want you all to spread it and don’t make my mistake, after got 700 duriels kill, spent almost all my time in the game since the start of the season, saw many drops to the other players, I can say FOR SURE - Shako and grandfater is dropping ONLY in first three uber drops ! ONLY. My shako dropped me twice in both my chars as the first uber drop, I saw that almost 90% of the new players with whom I ran rotas got shako as first or second uber drop, I saw A LOTS of players with 600+ runs that didnt get shako or grand at all, and me myself on 700 run with every uniques exept grandfather. So that is it ! Never look at popular streamers, they always have a tuned drop. Seem the ONLY way you can obtain it after three drops is to create a new char and try to get it in this interval
Edited:
SO I tested it and it worked. My 2 hours old lvl 25 necro just got shako and grand as first and second ubers in least than 30 runs, and it was not a simple luck. Of course, I can’t objectively prove my words to you, because all this is just my experience, but please don’t be like my 700 run barb, just try it yourself and see for yourself, create a new character, don’t level him, but just go boost to T4 and then do a normal duriel rotas. If you dont get it after 2 - 3 ubers drops (Which is very rare but still) create a new one and try again. It took me month of grinding this 700 runs to realise this simple rule
Drop depends on the items you have and the skills you use. As a necromancer and sorceress, I had a problem with certain items dropping. I changed my skill set and it worked. They started dropping items in pairs that I had never seen before. Diablo 3 works on the same principle. After changing skills, I received items for a specific build. Unfortunately, I don’t know if these most unique items work on the same principle.
Have only about 50 duriels in total, but got an andariels with my barbar. I use it at my rogue, who is a really unlucky character. He even not found a special ring from varshan, while the barbarian found 5 pieces.
Maybe shako is next, hope so, but Andariels was first.
I confirm this is work 100%!!! I got all Uber on same char. Secret is - I come to Dureil without any gear equipped and with skill board reset (with clan mates in party of course 
).
The hat and amulet fell out at the first launch. I confirm)
Unfortunately wrong, it’s RNG.
I got 2 Shakos almost in a row on my barb, and that was after about ~200+ Duriel.
But, I got to admit that on my sorc, it was literally the 4th Duriel run that dropped me a Shako.
I still think it’s RNG, it’s too easy to see patterns in random events and try to draw conclusions from it.
Yes, patterns.
This thread is pure conjecture and personal experience, full tinfoil.
No ill intent though, I get it… I also see patterns everywhere.
But aren’t you saying what I’m saying? Exactly It dropped to you between the first three uber drops. I tested this on three of my characters, they all received shako with the first and second uber drop and never after. I apologize for not clarifying right away, the first three drops are the first three uber unique items that drop, and not the entire first drop
To Gannicus:
A character’s luck depends on the length of time he exists. Create a new character, ask someone to take you to T4 and go straight to Duriel rota with this new character and you’ll see
I see what you mean, but I still think it’s RNG. When you think about it, within the first 3 uber that drops, you have very high chances that one of these to be Shako since the loot pool for Uber uniques is very small. So among 3 drops of Uber, whether be it last or first, you have 3x 1/6 (Druid & Sorc & Rogue 1/5) chances to drop Shako.
So technically you are right, Shako is likely to drop within your first 3 Uber drops, but not for the reasons you think, it’s still probabilities, not rigged RNG.
a friend of mine got 3-4 shakos and feel cursed as to only getting shako so i dont see your pattern being true
I got only that useless “uber” ring in more than 200runs, so, forget getting ubers from Duriel.
But you just confirmed my words…
Again, every shako\ grandfather drops is always first uber drops, almost nobody got it as their for example 6th or 8th uber uniques.
true RNG does not exist, and this game RNG is most twisted one I ever seen
I’ve done 100 runs and haven’t even got an Uber, so stop your complaining
Yea, u and me both, but it will come.
I read there’s a 2% probability for an uber to drop. At 100 attempts we have an 87% probability we have had a drop. We was unlucky, and that may continue for some time.
That we had gotten our particular drop is the lesser probability of 33%, however.
At 200 attempts we have a 55% probability to see a particular drop.
At 400 attempts there is an 80% probability we got that particular drop in our bags.
It’s a big part of the game to hunt like this, but it’s tedious at times making us invent hypothesises surrounding this circumstance. I, for instance, sometimes harbor the idea that the drops are all planned based on our progression status. Like we’re supposed to keep growing, because that’s fun, so they keep feeding us small pieces at a time to keep us happy. But I don’t truly believe that. I think that it’s just random, like Blizzard tell it is.
Bro, look, what I want to say is forget about 2% and such, idk what seed they used for their RNG but it twisted, as you and all can see If 90% of the players got shako as first and second uber drop there can’t be a 2% chance here
AND what also I want to say, I just test it and confirm it to myself. I created a necro, boosted him to T4 and go on the rotas at lvl 25, and I got shako as first uber and grandfater as second in less than 20 runs. And what I want to say - it was NOT a luck. here not only the rule of three first uber drops took place, but also an increased luck of the new chars so I get it in the less than 20 runs. Of course I can’t provide objective evidence with mathematical formulas, but I think everyone will at least agree with the fact of increased luck, because all 7 characters of which I leveled to 100 had it, this can’t be a coincidence
So in conclusion: My main barb with 700 + runs with a lot of game time played couldn’t get grand, and my 2 hours old 25 lvl necro got it on ~25 run. (as my rogue but it was the shako so nvm)
I don’t think you know 90% of the players, and even if you did you would never have time to talk to them about this. It discredits you to claim 90% has had this happen.
I met this guy the other night that couldn’t drop shako. Had everything else, just not shako. I want andy’s, and it dropped… for him. gg.
In any case, there could be something off; idk. Back in d3 they swore the rng was fine as they’ve checked it several times when ppl were telling they got double drops of the same uniques and set items. Got that myself a couple of times. How astronomically unlikely is it to drop the same set item twice within the minute? Sounds pretty god damn improbable to me. And yet it happened to people enough for them to come to the forum about it. So who knows, maybe your guts is telling you the truth but… to me it sounds you got extrordinarily lucky. Luck that should’ve been mine -.- Freaky though.
Off-topic: I dropped 300% fist of fate today, btw. I’m omega happy about that… gz to me!! High rolled too, just the dmg stat that was medium.
You can’t infer a pattern just from that my man. We understand what you’re trying to say, but you had 1/6 chances to get Shako as you first unique, 1/6 chance to get it on your second, and in terms of probabilities it gets closer to 1/3 chance for Shako to be that 2nd or 3rd drop.
The Uber unique pool is very small, 6 items for 2 classes and 5 for others. It’s tiny. So the chances to get a Shako early on are very high (I mean as your first/second or third Uber, not the chances to drop an Uber).
My Sorc had its Shako on the 4th Duriel run, my Barb took close to 300.
You’re not getting a lot of data because your suggestion implies people keep on farming for 4th, 5th or 6th Uber, which can take a long time for many people. So of course you’re only going to hear about people dropping a Shako, because most people have 1 or 2 Uber max, if at all.
The point here is that it is wrong to consider the RNG in this game as close to ideal. I’m not even talking about the fact that such an RNG does not exist in principle. Dont get me wrong, but according to your logic the chance should always be 1/6 (dont forget about duplicates), and if we take into account again my experience, in which I almost always saw Shako drops as the first or second drop to beginners (who had no Ubers at all), as well as people with 600+ runs without Shako or without Grandfather, then this means that I’m just crazy. Maybe I am, lol, but as the bombus said above, it works incorrectly, to put it mildly, of course I cannot and will never be able to objectively confirm my words with scientific data, because for this I would need to get into the game code, what I am talking about is my experience and the experience of the players whose I met. Also want to add that I never said that the first three uber drops will always be shako and grandfaver, I said that they can only fall in this interval (and chance of it as I saw very high). Of course, I understand everything and do not insist on the Truth™, but I hope that this will help many who find themselves in a situation like mine (and I’m sure it will help)
I understand that everything I say without objective confirmation turns into demagoguery, but I really think that’s how it all works
I enjoyed the read and think. Fun thread. Can’t add much more than that I do appreciate your truth-calling. There’s many lies and all that but as long as you carry a certain intellectual honesty it can never hurt to speak your mind about what’s going on; crazy, genius or otherwise.
I understand what you’re saying, and although I disagree, I understand how you are coming to your conclusions.
In the end it’s close to the same topic whether you have only a 2% chance to drop an Uber or 1% to not have an Uber after 300 runs. One is the overall probability when flipping a coin (like 50/50 to get face or tail) but on overall view, it’s an incredibly low probability to get only Heads over 300 flips.
So yes, you do get 1/6 chance as a barb/necro to get Shako as your Uber, but over several Uber dropping, the probability becomes much higher for that 2nd or 3rd Uber to be a Shako.
But let’s assume for the sake of argument that somehow, that RNG is rigged. I got two questions for you:
- Why would Blizzard do that? Sounds like more work to implement such a logic than pure RNG. So what’s their motivation to enforce Shako drop?
- Would that be a bad thing? Shako is BIS for most classes, so why would Shako dropping early on be bad?