(I hope you don’t mind me editing out the silly spaces from your link so that people can now just copy/paste it without having to remove them by hand)
The topic title of this post includes the word “proof”. And yet you post just a single match. Since this is a match from an Arena run, I assume that all other games of that run are also available on hsreplay. Would you care to share links to all the games in that run?
It happens. It is called RNG.
If you watch the entire game, you will also see your opponent draw Blizzard on turn 2. Or Argent Commander on turn 3. Or a Silent Knight on turn 4 that was useless for the board state. Drawing Baron Geddon on turn 7 was not really that great either given their mana total and the board state. Or what about turn 13 - Babbling Book into Arcane Explosion when faced with high-health minions is also totally useless.
And on the other side of the board, you drew Darkbomb off your hero power in turn 8, giving you just the removal you needed. And what about the Faceless Rager on turn 11? Or the hellfire turn 12 (you didn’t play it but you should have - Hellfire - Shadow Bolt - Earthen Ring Farseer would have cleared the opponent board and kept your side alive). The Potion Vendor turn 14 was no slouch either as it made it much harder for your opponent to clear your board.
So in a topic called “proof that card draw is rigged”, you actually posted a link to a game that shows how both you and your opponent played a game in which more than 40 cards were drawn, both you and your opponent had a few lucky draws, both you and your opponent had a few unlucky draws, and both you and your opponent had a lot of average draws.
That’s what the first line says. The table (which BTW is a detailed breakdown of the simplified table in the paragraph above) tells you a lot more.
For instance, it tells you that 43.75% of all arena runs end with 0 or 1 wins. If I track my data and see that I end at 0 or 1 in 12.63% of my runs, I can safely assume (given enough tracked runs to be relevant) that I’m more skilled than average in Arena.
And another example, it tells players that across all drafts, only 0.65% make it all the way to 12 wins. So if someone posts that they did 40 runs already and never once made it to 12 wins so surely they suck, I can point to this table and say that in 40 runs it is for the average player far more likely to NOT make it to 12 than to DO make it to 12. (Many players start playing HS after watching streamers that regularly make it to 12 and expect to be able to do the same).
And it also serves as a nice prediction of how often you will get which reward tier if you assume that your Arena skills are exactly average. Which is of course not true for anyone, but it does serve as a nice starting point for answering the question (often seen on the forums) “is it economically smart to play Arena”.
It IS is correct representation of arena results. It tells nothing about an individual arena run, but everything about the total of all arena runs.
Unless you want to challenge the first assumption, or unless you can make a point that the variance in the second assumption has a much bigger impact than I think on the table, this is exactly where everyone will end if thousands of players start a run.
For Blizzard, thousands of players do start a run. This is their truth. When 10,000 runs are started, 65 of them will go to twelve wins. Blizzard doesn’t care who those 65 players are, they just care that they will have to award the highest price tier 65 times.
Thanks for the additional explanation, Ixnay!
In that case, (a) my earlier remark about the much smaller size of the new player pool becomes moot; and (b) this DOES have some effect on the table because even with perfect matchmaking there will now be SOME players at 0-1 that play vs a 0-0 (new player) opponent. But these numbers are pretty low as compared to the total so I think the effect on the table will be negligable.
So there would be ways to analyze the algorithm if you had the time and money. There’s a limited number of cards in the pool and and you can come up with theoretical probabilities for pulls and specifically defined “discover a card” events and see how often they come up. You could also check and see probabilities are related change depending purchases and length of time between purchases.
I don’t have the time for that though. Instead, I’ll just just provide a fun anecdotal story. I made a Shaman deck and put The Fist of Ra-Den in it. I never play weapons and this is the first weapon deck I’ve made in years. I want to complete a quest and I figure it 's a fun card ability.
Now, I’ve played against a lot of Demon Hunters. The basic cards for demon hunter have great synergy and there’s no reason not to have the cheap basic Demon Hunter cards in your deck. I’ve never come against a Demon Hunter player who would put something as synergy breaking as say, Acidic Swamp Ooze in their deck. Why would they put that in your deck when the slot could be better filled with cards that fit demon hunter synergy better? I’m not saying such a person isn’t out there; I’m saying they’re probably rare.
So, I’m playing against this Demon Hunter and he passes a few terms and I start to realize the initiative is starting to shift to my side. I play Ra-Den and the thought occurs to me that the only thing that’s going to steal this game is if this is the one Demon Hunter I’ve ever seen that not only has Acidic Swamp Ooze as one of his lower tier minions but just so happens to have it right now. Improbable I think. Not only have I never come across a Demon Hunter who would break the synergy of their deck like that, what is the chance that I would come across them at the moment that I just decide to play a weapons deck.
Pretty good it turns out. The guy plays Acidic Swamp Ooze on the next turn. The algorithm matched me up with just the right guy who could counter my deck.
Honestly, if you were Blizzard, why wouldn’t you rig the algorithm so that it is psychologically motivating? All you have to do is assign players scores depending on how much product they buy and how often. Then you match them up with other players who have decks that can counter theirs. If a player hasn’t purchased product in a while or he purchases to little, have him or her lose a little to psychologically motivate them. Not only that but make them close games…games that depend on just the right pulls. Then they’ll think, “Oh man, if I buy a little more I’ll win more often.”
A psychologically manipulating algorithm wouldn’t be hard to program but it would be hard to prove. However, there might be quite a reward incentive for those willing to do it: Imagine the class action lawsuits lawyers could file if such an algorithm were proven to exist. The one who discovers the algorithm could probably find a way to be well rewarded.
Who would spend the time and effort to go through dozens of games just to prove it?
Well sites like hsreplay track all the match ups/card draws so there’s millions of games worth of data to prove it’s not rigged. Ooze was a actually run in most DH when it was first released, simply because the mirror was so prevalent. Now it is a more unusual tech choice, but having seen so little of your opponents deck, it’s hard to say how strange a tech choice it is or wether the opponent is a bad deck builder or hit a pocket of the meta where they felt it was right, which against you, it was.
This is just Hearthstone. Sometimes your opponent has God draws, sometimes you have God draws, sometimes you both do and it comes down to the matchup. Sometimes your opponent makes huge misplays and wins due to rng, sometimes you make a mistake when not paying attention and still win.
If you don’t like it stop playing, the game is flawed yes, but there is no rigging of decks. You just need to realise that win or lose, hearthstone is full of random bs and you just gotta make peace with that.
I 100% agree. The draw in HS is rigged and changes according to your matchups. I’m coming here after 10 separate games where I began watching something repetitive. I played against aggro druids and I always drew my 6,7,8 cost cards and above. Never less than that. I can’t prove it by pictures atm because i was too baffled and didnt take screens. But as soon as I went into a control matchup, the draw became normal again, drawing both the low, mid and high cost cards. As much as I’d love to believe that it’s a random chance, I just drew the very same cards 5 games in a row against aggro druid. I believe it’s just hearthstone’s weird mechanism that triggers whenever you play these fully all in burnout decks
How the rest of the deck can be full of flame strikes? But it is not the card draw, algorithms are simple since blizzard employees are poor professionals and they are underpaid. So their work is simply not the card draw. HS has bigger problems than that - for an ugly card game look at the optimization, the performance, and the ugly medieval animations from 90s.
For card draw, I think the bias is the cards you play the most got reduced factor for the next X games. Then switch back. That is normal though. You must play your whole deck and if you put 80% 7+ cards you have to want to see them the most. Simple AI.
The game is rigged because it is retarded. I got Jaraxxus just to try it and until turn 6 I had no single demon. Then the whole board was full only demons. I wished Blizz and their families good things and quit.
Yes, there must be somekind of control in the drawing of cards because many times I see that too… everything goes well, I make one mistake and the game gives everything to the enemy rightaway to force me lose… and this can’t be an accident I think…
i will love, when someone prove this crazy conspiracy…
but any of you tinfoil hats wasnt able to show any proof, sadly.
go for it, show that code what are you talking about, point at part what is rigged and show how. but im sure you already know it is only in your head under tinfoil hat… you are worse than flatearthers
See, that video talks as if it’s making draws that favour one player over the other, which doesn’t match what the document is talking about.
The thing that it’s discussing is the actual finding of matches, not what happens in the game itself. It might decide that a guy who just crafted, say a Blood DK deck might find a match where it’s matched against a deck that Blood DK is good against.
What it does not influence is the card drawing itself. It just means you have a better chance against that deck to draw a useful card because of the way your deck and it’s game plan works.
The matchmaking has already been proven to be rigged by design because it has to be to provide a modicum of balance between the players. And no, just because the game believes one player is “destined” to have fun that match, that does not mean the player is automatically going to win. If you play worse than the underdog, you’re still gonna lose.
People are focusing on the wrong thing I think… Not just the card draw is controlled in this game but the working of the mechanincs are also… just test it… (I am a real player who refused to play aggro.) Try to put Masked reveler and Lead dancer into a big paladin deck, check how many times will the Masked reveler create a useless 2/2 copy of Lead dancer instead of anything else in your deck… I tested it… a lot of times I can sure you… or try to put flight of the bronze into it to get some help in discovering a smaller mana cost minion to the first rounds… many times you will see a variety of 6+ mana cost dragons just to make sure… you won’t get an advantage of it… However thats why you have put it into it… just check and say it is not controlled… Thats how they are blocking good players and this has nothing to do with skills… in other words… random is not random in this game… it is controlled in 50%. Ppl are complaning about Countess now… I have used it and I can sure you guys, it is giving useless Legendaries in 50%… not so useful like many others think. I have lost 3 bonus stars since DK released and can’t get them back because of the insane unbalance the game has right now. I have more then 5000 Paladin wins so I know what I am talking about… the whole MM is just an illusion of skills… if the MM lets you go higher because managed to win enough… then you will, if it is not… then you won’t… it is that simple.
![:kissing_heart:](https://d30yn6ctwpaot1.cloudfront.net/en/hearthstone/images/emoji/twitter/kissing_heart.png?v=6" ":kissing_heart:")
