I don't normally like to complain about RNG but

General Discussion
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Before everyone jumps on the troll bandwagon RNG is a part of the game, I get that, I fully accept it and I don’t usually have much issue with it.

Recently though I’ve noticed that, quite often, when I mulligan a card I’ve been getting the same card back again. Now, I know that this can happen, particularly with cards you have doubles of, but it’s been happening with legendaries too. Twice today already I’ve mulligan’d out a legendary only to get it back again, and since I’ve started noticing it I’ve been noticing it happening probably little more than it should, especially when you consider a 1 in 27 draw chance on a mulligan of a legendary.

Anybody else been experiencing this?

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Yeah, that happens a lot, but you don’t get the same card per-se. If you run duplicates you get the dupe, and teh chance to get it is fairly good, like 1 in 10 games.
For legs - you can’t mulligan it and recieve it back, what happens is probably you get it as your first draw, and that happens a lot too.

Examples of simmillar confirmational biases - you desperately need a card, with more then a 50% chance to comes, to save you/win, yet it never comes, and on your next game it is both in your first and 2nd mulligan or you draw in the first or 2nd turn.

Back in the days, in Razakus priest meta, where mirrors were decided by who will get kazakus at 4, razaa at 5 and anduin at 8, I often had the same situation. get beaten, because mine were bottom deck, and then get it into the next mulligan.

So to answer your question - nay, it does not happen as often as you thing, but because of the frustration you tend to pay more attention to such moments and notice them. If you want a semi basic way to proove certain pattern take an excell sheet and mark a 1 for any good draw you do for mulligan, and first 5 turns, 1 in another column for a bad draw, and 2 more cloumns with extremely good and extremely bad draws, gaining yu 2 pints each, then compare the total numbers of all 4 coloumns for 50 games. You’ll see they even out

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The game is 99.99999999999999999% pure luck, this game is not ment to be anything else then just to kill some time, while bored… and also to show how lazy Blizztard has become over time… there are 1000 times better cardgames out there…

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Are you sure they are not like… 986 times better, or 732 times better. Can you name 10? How about 5? Top 3 at least? Oh, okey, sorry for bothering you.

3 Likes
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Maybe he means Artifact? :joy:

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Ignore him, he is complaining and salty on other topics to

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You might be right that this is what is happening. But getting duplicates from mulligans is currently happening to me a lot more than it should. I had one game yesterday where I mulligan’d out a mind blast and a shadow visions and got both cards back from the redraw…….I’m a mathematician…I know the odds of that happening are ridiculous, but it can happen, but for it to be happening quite regularly (by regularly I mean at least once every 3-4 games) strikes me as odd. I’ve also had quite a few instances where I’ve used psychic scream and my opponent has top drawn on the card that got reshuffled…i.e shuffling Jan’alai back into mage deck and they redraw it immediately.

End of the day, I KNOW it’s random, but I also know that a computer can never truly replicate true random generation because it has to be based on rules, which contradicts the whole essence of it being random, but I’m seriously getting a long string of bad RNG at the minute…so frustrating :stuck_out_tongue:

But, yeah, this post is really just me venting my frustration at a long run of bad luck than actually suggesting the game is intentionally screwing me :stuck_out_tongue:

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Yeah, as stated above - it happens, the odds are not that uncommon.

If you go first its 3 out of 27 (11.11%) and if you go 2nd 4 out f 26 (15.38%)

after mulligan the chance is 3 out of 24 (12.5) and 4 out of 23 (17.3%)

the percents are what part of your deck your drow - so it’s fair to get 2 cards again in a almost a fifth of your deck.

the chance after mully, when going 2nd, with first draw is 1 in 22, from 5 instances, and 5% is a thing :). Well, it was 0.0005% then I could call it ridicolous

Had the same thing a season ago
mage played that card that summouns rag, I’m at 22 hp, clear board. I scream. he topdecks it, I scream, he topdecks it, I die.

It’s rare but exatcly what I’ve pointed out earlier - much more memorable and that creates confirmational bias.

Rly, if you can spare the time make the spreadsheet and see for yourself. Besides, what realistic reason would you have for game devs to put the win in someones hands just to take it away.

and to repeat - i’ve been there too, felt the same way, it just happen <3

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At the end of the day we know it isn’t rigged simply because the amount of games that are tracked through things like hsreplay which prove that draws and such even out over time like you’d expect them too.

Doesn’t mean it doesn’t feel bad when you hit a patch of bad rng that makes it feels like the game is against you. Also makes you forget all the neutral/favourable draws you’ve had as well :grinning:

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This isn’t actually true. When you mulligan 1 card, when going first, you have 3 cards in your hand and you put one back. That leaves 27 drawable cards in your deck. to draw a specific card is a 1 in 27 chance which is a 3.7% chance of drawing that particular card. When you mulligan 2 your 2nd card is a 1 in 26 chance to draw a specific card which is a 3.9% chance to draw that specific card. To mulligan out 2 cards and then get the same 2 cards back is a multiple of those 2 chances which is a 1.4% chance of that occurring. Statistically this should only happen in approximately 1 in 71 games which is a 2.4% likelihood of happening. It’s happened to me at least 3 times this week and I can guarantee you I have not played anywhere close to 213 games this week :stuck_out_tongue:

But yeah, like I said. I’m just venting frustration at my terrible luck at the minute, not actually suggesting the world is against me ha ha

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I know my math is rough and ugly at best, not even claiming it to be correct. Btw, I’m not even sure how does the oppening mulligan and after mulligan works - is it each card for itself or a batch of cards, drown together. Also, I’ll try to replicate it with a deck of standart playing cards, 15 dupes, 30 deck, wanna bet on that 1 in 71 outcome :slight_smile:

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You have to do 2/27 and 1/26 as the order doesn’t matter.

So it’s gona be around 1 in 35, going first and slightly more likely going 2nd to mulligan 2 cards and get the duplicates back from the mulligan.

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It works like this…you have 3 cards in your hand, leaving 27 in your deck, you mulligan 2, but these 2 cards don’t go back into the deck until the new cards are drawn, so your 2 new cards are drawn from a pool of 27 and 26 respectively (26 because the first card re-drawn reduces the pool) Therefore, if I mulligan a mind blast and a shadow visions, because they are no longer considered duplicates because the cards mulligan’d cannot be re-drawn, to get a mind blast and a shadow visions AGAIN is a chance of 2 in 27 and 1 in 26, because the drawing of both of these cards is mutually exclusive you need the chances of both happening so it the probability of this occurring is quite simply the probability of A happening multiplied by the probability of B happening. Probability of A = 7.8% Probability of B = 3.8% AxB = 0.2964%. My first calculation was a bit rushed, its even less likely to occur than I thought :stuck_out_tongue:

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Just put one normal and one golden from each card into your deck that way it’s easy to spot when you get that card ('s) back after the mulligan.