You know if you’d just led with this I could’ve saved you the time. In your analogy the mistake is the assertion that a small sample size represents the whole.
But that’s not what we’re talking about, we’re talking about direct observation (the million coin flips) vs a piece of paper that says the results should be 60:40. You’re the one arguing against what we see in the game, I don’t even know why. For the longest time people have been flat-out denying that the changes in game actually happened, why? You say Mercy is balanced, she clearly isn’t and everyone can see, so why pretend otherwise? It doesn’t matter what the statistics say on the subject when they’re consistently wrong, does it?
Hasty generalization. You set a tiny sample, which is your personal experience, as the absolute fact that counts for everything, even though more general facts contradict it. In fact, I can use the hasty generalization myself. After all, I can claim that that the nerf didn’t hurt because I can still play Reinhardt and Orisa as well as before, even though statistics prove that there is a decrease in pick rates.
Appeal to personal incredulity. You can’t comprehend the idea that the statistics tell the “truth”. Therefore, it must be false because you can’t believe it yourself.
So, statistics show that heroes with armor suffered from the nerf. Surprisingly, Orisa didn’t. Why is that? Is it because she is a ranged tank with a shield and anti CC? Is it because she isn’t a popular hero? Or is it maybe because the statistics might be misleading yet and we should wait a few days to see the rates in a broader picture?
No, because at no point have I ever generalised based on my own experience. What I said is that EVERYONE experiences the problem, so the statistics are irrelevant.
Appeal to personal incredulity.
You have failed to make a case, it isn’t my fault that I don’t believe you.
Is it because she is a ranged tank with a shield and anti CC?
Possibly, and possibly it’s because the statistics you cite are as much a metric of the game’s balance as the medal system is a metric of how well our team’s Genji did.
Just as a head’s up, Winston and Orisa did no damage at all vs armor. Especially Winston where it took any AOE healing to out-healing his damage vs armor.
Its funny before this patch winston did more dps by punch spamming armor then just by holding M1. Yet people still want to believe that armor was balanced.
Next patch they are reworking how winston deals its damage, since after the armor change, hes dmg is still low. Atm he does low dmg rapidly, they will make it so he deals a bit more dmg but it ticks slower. Making for the same over all DPS but just a bit more dmg vs armor.
Statistics, while accurate if done correctly, generally only show what they’re designed to show. When you look at the pick rates for competitive play at any point in time, you’d think that pretty much a third of the player base is a tank main, over a third is a support main and less than a third is a DPS main, when we all know that this is far from the case. The trappings of comp (and comps) however force people to flex, so we end up with this distribution. Just because people still play tanks, doesn’t mean that a) they want to and b) they are tank mains. So even if tanks are now so much worse that 1-2-3 would be the suprior comp, people would still be uncomfortable to play it in a time where the meta hasn’t settled yet. How do they choose which tank to play? Well, they don’t KNOW what’s good, they try/assume. D.Va got a double nerf so people want to switch off (this doesn’t mean she’s a bad tank right now, just that people think she is!).
In short: people are forced to play tanks, which is why overall their pick rate hasn’t changed. People experiment with which tank to choose which is why there are some fluctuations, especially towards the less played ones.
Secondly, your argument about win rates is inherently flawed, because a) you didn’t thoroughly analyse the stats and b) you discard the symmetrical nature of the game and those stats.
If you dive deep into the stats you’ll see that the average win rate according to Overbuff is 50.9% (I took the stats from last month). Yes, sum(winrate*pickrate) yields 50.9%. Can’t quite explain why, because even if OB only has a sample of the actual player base, it still shouldn’t be that weird. In that context “above 50%” loses some meaning. And btw, Winstons overall win rate for a single day wasn’t above 50% since January 2nd, which was a fluke on a day he was played far less than otherwise.
In addition, both teams will have a tank of some kind, because people - according to the stats - still play 2-2-2. This means that any change in win rate can only portrait the changing power balance among the tanks. So yeah, Orisa and Zarya got better, because both have abilities to limit or deny Reapers healing.
In conclusion, the meta doesn’t form within those few days, people will still want a main tank on their team even if no tank mains are playing. It’s never about who gets played, but whom players want to play - and quantiative statistics won’t be able to capture that. As a tank main, I won’t play competitive for a while, because I generally don’t like the crazy period after a meta change when everyone knows that things are different but noone yet knows in what way they will be different. Tanking definitely got less fun (as with every patch), mostly in favour of a single hero all the DPS mains will jump onto.
They are daily stats. Yes its more consistent to show the montly once, but if you click on a hero from overbuff you’d see ther daliy stats. Just how reapers pick rate for all the racks went by 2% for a total of 3%+ pick rate, yet is still at 0.21% for GM and master.
Goats was at 60-70% for OWL. The place people play’d to win. On the PTR after the armor patch goats hitted 75% pick rate as well.
The stats above posted by FatBlu are prity accurate and for the “day” not the month and yes D.va got hit the hardest, but that because she had 95% pick rate for Esport. Over all she lost 1%+ pick rate that got spreaded to the other less pick tanks. And lets not forget that for pro play reaper is still at 0.21% pick rate, tank mains dont even know how it feels when your hero gets even 1% pick rate and is hated by the community since tanks will always be needed to make space.
a) You clearly didn’t read my post since you didn’t adress any of the actual arguments I made.
b) Goats was barely ever played in CP. In the past 6months, Brig never had a daily pick rate over 4.57%.