I’m a math guy. No, I don’t do calculus in my free time but I do like to keep track of things, such as how much gold I get from loot boxes. What I’m about to complain about almost had me quit overwatch altogether when Blizzard changed the loot box duplicates. Before the update, I got a range of 35-75 gold from duplicates per box. Now, I’m lucky if I even get 35 gold. To the people who will say… So, you get fewer duplicates so whats the problem? My reply, yes, less duplicates, and less gold, meaning LESS CHOICE. I’d rather have a choice. I’m not a fan of gambling, especially in a game with underaged players. So back to why I quit Overwatch back when they altered the loot boxes. Before I used to spend $20 every event and I would almost be guaranteed enough gold to buy a 3k gold legendary. Between duplicates and gold rewards $10 easily got me 1k gold. So after this ‘fix’, I wanted a winter loot box skin. No problem right? I pay 20$ or so and surely I’ll get it right? Well no, I didn’t, I spent about 60$ and didn’t get it, nor enough gold to buy the damn thing. $60+ for a skin is just predatory. So I stopped. I lost interest in the game until now. I didn’t buy loot boxes for a long time until now. As you all know the anniversary event allows us to buy any skins we missed. All I want is the Briggetta skin but after $20 I only got some unwanted legendaries and 500 gold… Blizzard, please remove gambling from your games. It’s just not ethical. Everyone should be able to get the skin they want. People struggle to make money and yes they don’t have to buy look boxes, but being guaranteed the skin you want for 10$ is far better than GAMBLING $60 and getting disappointed. Overwatch has had such a positive inclusive message, please do not keep it so those who have $60+ dollars to burn get what they want while everyone else gets frustrated each event due to the futility of gambling.
Just like with any form of gambling you need to have self control. Gambling is only that if you allow it to be, and in this game cosmetics do not make any difference at all to the game, it’s purely just for vanity purposes.
Basically all you are saying is you were annoyed that you brought lootboxes and didn’t get what you wanted, well everyone knows they are not guaranteed. If you choose to use real cash, that’s on you, but you can just play the game and either hope you get what you want in a lootbox or use gold to unlock it. To be fair if you knew the event was coming (which the vast majority of players did), you would of slowly saved up some currency for this situation.
No, that’s not basically what I’m saying. I’m afraid you are misunderstanding the issue here. Gambling has no place in gaming. It doesn’t matter how many self control warnings you stick on it. At the end of the day people want certain skins, and some who would pay a fair price for them don’t get them, and others over pay and get nothing. Kids play this game. Gambling should not be a part of it. Gambling is designed this way and all its negative affects are intentional.
While the implementation of luck in microtransaction is one topic, I would say something about the change.
Since you are a math guy, you should have experience with probability.
Loot box items are split into 4 rarities: common, rare, mythical and legendary. Each of them has a different probability to occur, legendary having the least. However, that’s not all of it. There are different items that are categorized as legendary and each of them has an equal chance to occur.
In the old version, duplicates can occur and thus the probability to get a specific legendary item stays the same.
Based on the mathematical urn problem, it’s like drawing a random ball and placing it back.
In the new version, items which you have obtained won’t be in the loot box pool. Based on the mathematical urn problem, it’s like drawing a random ball and not placing it back.
The question is: which one is better?
Quick answer: The new version.
The longer you play and the more loot boxes you open, the more items you obtain, making the probability to obtain a specific item in the next loot box higher.
To demonstrate, here is an example:
Let’s say there are a total of 20 legendary items. Obtaining a specific one would be the probability of legendary item times 1/20.
Now, what if you unlocked 18 items and 2 are left, one of them being the item you wanted.
We can leave out the chance of getting a legendary item because it is the same on both version
In the old version, if you get a legendary item, your chance would still be 1/20 to obtain the desired item, which is worth 1000 coins. You would also have an 18/20 chance to get a duplicate, providing you with 200 coins and a 1/20 chance to get the item you don’t want, which is worth 0 coins for you.
In the new version, the 18 items you obtained are out of the loot box pool, thus only the 2 unobtained items can occur. Your chance of getting the desired item would then be 1/2 chance of obtaining the desired item and 1/2 to get the item you don’t want.
If you have the choice, which one would be the more effective version? We can find that out by calculating the expected value:
Old version:
1/20 * 1000 + 18/20 * 200 + 1/20 * 0 = 230
New version:
1/2 * 1000 + 1/2 * 0 = 500
230 < 500 -> New version is better
So mathematically speaking, the new version is better. However, at the beginning, both versions have just a subtle difference yet the longer you play and the more items you get, the higher chances you have to get the desired item in the new version
Oh and one last thing: This microtransaction system is not directly gambling because you cant transfer the in-game rewards to real life money. While it can have a psychological impact, it is not nearly as bad as gambling.
(on a sidenote, CS:GO has a microtransaction system that is more similar to gambling than Overwatch has)
![:dragon:](https://d1kzxbyyijk9k6.cloudfront.net/en/overwatch/images/emoji/twitter/dragon.png?v=6" ":dragon:")
Thank you for that information but you did not cite your source.
I believe it’s apparent that my opinion on gambling in gaming is that it’s wrong. but I’d like to comment on one thing you wrote.
“Oh and one last thing: This microtransaction system is not directly gambling because you cant transfer the in-game rewards to real life money.”
I’d like to point out to you that you are paying for them with real-world money. Blizzard very much is getting money from loot boxes. Another thing is someone could sell their account based on the skins they have. How many accounts have the pre-order widow skin on theirs? Those accounts have real money value. Although it may break the EULA with Blizzard, it does happen.
Thankfully China and Japan have better regulations than the US, because Blizzard actually has to disclose that information. According to the webpage, it takes about 13.5 loot boxes to get a legendary, but to be fair this might have changed. Also it changes per region, so this info is just what Blizzard has to disclose in China. They could have fixed the values to look more appealing that what the NA region gets.
20 legendaries X 13.5 = 270 loot boxes to acquire them all IF you don’t get a legendary.
If you got the $40 loot box bundle it would still take you $216 (Which doesn’t divide into $40 evenly) Like I said, that’s if you don’t get duplicates.
I loved the Breast cancer event with the pink Mercy, $15 for a legendary skin is a steal compared to the apparently hundreds you’d have to spend to get a particular one.
**The new loot box system is more of a ripoff because the gold has more value than a legendary skin the player doesn’t want. That $20 I used to spend was a means to get enough gold to get the skin I wanted, I didn’t need it to come up in a loot box. Now gold is so nerfed I make 80% LESS previously. This only means I am stuck with the legendaries I got and buying them is no longer an option. **
-China’s regulatory loot box probability
http://ow.blizzard.cn/article/news/486
-Source for time to get loot boxes.
Blizzard are greedy and the game is set up to take your money.
I mean you have a choice, they are just skins afterall
As I said, my aim was to discuss the loot box change.
Regarding the “is gambling ok” topic, I do believe myself that luck in microtransactions is a rather foul business model.
However, you have to consider that you don’t have to buy loot boxes because you are able to earn them in game.
Also, the “you can sell the account” is a rather weak argument because it can be applied to almost anything like WoW accounts with rare drops, for example. Besides, Blizzard doesn’t offer a system where you can sell your account, which makes them different from gambling services.
I do not like the implementation of luck in microtransactions but I can at least tolerate it in Overwatch because, first, the Items are cosmetics and thus not pay to win and, second, you can earn loot boxes in-game, even if it takes at least 1 hour to get one.
I should have mentioned that both versions are beneficial in different situations. The old version is beneficial in short terms because, as you said, it allows you to get the skin you wanted with 20$ (come to think about that, it means that skin costs 20$…)
The new version is beneficial in long terms because the chances of obtaining a skin you want increases by the number of skins you already have. This is rewarding for players who played for a long time.
Also, you will get duplicates if you already have each item of a specific rarity because the game doesn’t change the probability for that.
Now let’s say you have all current skins and a new event went online with 3 new skins. Imagine how high the chances are to get all the event skins. It would be much higher with the new version than it would be beneficial with the old version.
You could get all 3 skins with 20$ in the new version, or you will be able to buy 1 skin with 20$ in the old version.
In the end, I would choose the new version because it benefits in the long run.
Oh and one last, rather depressing thing.
It takes an average of 13.5 loot boxes to get a legendary item. That makes it to a probability of 7.4%.
However, that doesn’t mean that a legendary item is guaranteed after the 14th loot box.
There is, however, a mathematical way to find out, when it’s almost guaranteed.
First, we have to define a mathematical problem:
At least how many loot boxes do you have to open to get at least 1 legendary item with a probability of at least 98%
It can be solved with binomial distribution and the easiest way to solve it to subtract 1 with the converse probability:
1 - 0.926n > 0.98
Now we have to find out the value of n, which is the number of loot boxes and that would be at least 51
That is the number of loot boxes you have to open in order to have an at least 98% chance to get at least 1 legendary item.
If we want to have an at least 50% chance, then it would be at least 10 loot boxes.
The higher the probability is, the more loot boxes you have to open and vice versa.
Just like with any form of gambling you need to have self control. Gambling is only that if you allow it to be, and in this game cosmetics do not make any difference at all to the game, it’s purely just for vanity purposes.