There are actually 3 possible explanations:
- There are really more defense games than offence due to Blizzard’s decision.
- There are more vacant spots on defence teams.
- It is just a selection-bias.
Hypothesis 1 is easily proven wrong. Each defence game needs the same amount of attacking people. Starting more games with people on defence is thus not possible unless there was attacking teams with AI people (pretty unlikely).
Hypothesis 3 is pretty much possible and was suggested by many already. While I think selection-bias plays some role here (you feel more anger about “another def game” than you get positive feedback from an att one), I don’t think this is the main reason.
Which brings me to hypothesis 2:
Could there just be SIGNIFICANTLY more vacant spots on defence than on offence? This sounds quite plausible, since many have stated they don’t enjoy defence. If people leave when they see “def” then naturally more people get queued into def. It gets even worse: Let’s say, you never do leave, but the average player during your playtime/skill bracket does. This makes the team with you “more stable”. The defending team will throw, making your attack games very stompy and rather short.
Since I play alot quickplay (pretty much nothing else, besides some mystery heroes) and already cursed with a diamond border, I can share some “anecdotal evidence” for this theory.
I play quite often after work (after about 6pm), but also quite a lot really late (11pm to 2am). This is relevant because I see a pretty obvious correlation between two phenomenons.
In the afternoon/early evening of all quickplay games I’d say about 80% have early leavers, usually after first lost teamfight. During later hours it’s close to 0% (rather disconnects).
Also during afternoons it feels like “only defence” while late night it’s pretty even.
One could ask why there is this huge discrepancy in leaver rates. It probably has to do with the different part of playerbase playing at different hours (player age, timezone?).
At least I have accepted that I can play early, but real overwatch starts at 11pm.