again, I wont explain how statistics work… Read the post I sent you, otherwise we can go back and forth 
The two people have the same statistical chance of getting a bullion pr. boss.
Why otherwise would OP do 12 bosses and you can see multiple people here getting it on first boss?
Please, for your own sake, read up on statistical probability
I’m not sure it works like that. In our Friday night Fun Run’s some players loot 2 bullions off one boss kill. There is a catch up in place but how lucky you are is dependent. Have to say so far I never missed out on one bullion since start.
per boss. That is the thing. But having more bosses makes the total chance go up. Please…
Please read up on statistics.
When you roll more times you have more chances.
Yes there is a catch up in place So when you want to be efficient it is probably not the play to do the raid every week for 1 bullion.
I must do a greater variety of stuff in game to you because I’ve back capped every week.
Just purely M+ and nothing else then I’m guessing for you.
No… Really no… It increases the amount of rolls you have, but your chances are still the same… You cant intertwine words like you do…
I am sorry, but you really need to read up on statistics, because arguing that your chances increase means that everyone should just go to the casinos and place double bets everytime they lose because their chances of winning increase everytime they play… Thats your logic… And that is flawed…
First of all, I have read statistics and I can even recommend the books I have at home
Second of all:
and
is not the same If you don’t understand the difference between those two sentences, you just show you don’t understand statistics.
https://www.gigacalculator.com/calculators/dice-probability-calculator.php
Good luck.
How many dice: 1
At least 1 die exual to X.
X: 6
Result
Probability at least one die turns up 6 0.16666666666667 (16.6667%)
Change amount of dice to 10: result
Probability at least one die turns up 6 0.83849441711015 (83.8494%)
See the percentage go up when you add amount of rolls? On LFR you have 9 dice with all the same individual chance but the total chance goes up when you roll more times.
Looks like you are the one.
This is for an alt that started last week that needed 720 crests to cap.
You’re seeing them as a sequence… Like I told you…
In roulette, each spin of the wheel is independent of the previous spins, so the outcome of one spin does not affect the outcome of the next spin. The probability of the ball landing on black on any given spin of the roulette wheel is approximately 18/38 (or 18/37 in European roulette with one zero) since there are 18 black pockets out of a total of 38 pockets on an American roulette wheel (or 18 out of 37 in European roulette).
Given that you have seen 10 reds in a row, it does not change the probabilities on the next spin. The probability of the ball landing on black on the next spin remains the same, approximately 18/38 (or 18/37 in European roulette). Each spin is an independent event, so the past outcomes do not influence the future outcomes.
Therefore, your chances of hitting black on the next spin are approximately 18/38, or about 47.37% in American roulette (or 18/37, about 48.65% in European roulette).
So no. but you may need to read up on statistics Good luck
Nobody is talking about 1 individual boss kill. It is about killing 3 bosses vs 9 bosses and the chance of getting 1 bullion out of those total amount of kills
You keep talking about history and come back about 1 next individual roll. Nobody talks about that.
It is about the total chance of getting abullion after 1 boss kill + 1 boss kill + 1 boss kill
vs
1 boss kill +1 boss kill +1 boss kill +1 boss kill +1 boss kill +1 boss kill +1 boss kill +1 boss kill +1 boss kill.
But… each kill is an individual chance… Just like the roulette table… Again… You seem to not understand how probability and statistics work. And I won’t really keep going trying to explain it. Theres plenty of material to teach you, as I said, I can even recommend a few books if needed
The same as the previous 5, but the probability of getting 6 blacks in a row is significantly smaller than getting black once. That is the probability I’m talking about, not the probability of getting a particular result from a set of possible results on each individual event, where the probability is obviously the same each time.
If you take dice instead of roulette, and you have a guy consisently rolling 6 with his dice all the time, then you don’t just assume he’s lucky, you check his dice to see if they’re loaded. Otherwise any random hobo could go into a casino, bring loaded dice and claim he’s just lucky.
The probability of rolling any number on a 6 sided dice is 1/6. The probability of rolling the same number twice in a row is 1/6 * 1/6, so the probability of rolling the same number with each roll gets exponentially lower.
So in this same sence, when I have a pool of several guilds, all with 20+ players each, many of which play several characters, and from none of the guilds did I see any complaints that a bullion isn’t dropping, the probability for a guild where several players have this problem, and at least one of them had it twice, is quite small. So suspecting a bug or confusion about the bullion system rather than chance is reasonable.
I can be wrong, it could be the case that people were just really unlucky in this particular guild, but the point is that the probability is low considering the sample size I have, and that people are often confused about how systems work in this game, make mistakes, or could miss that they already looted a bullion.
No I did not. You’re talking past me with somethings else. The explanation is in previous post as well as above in this post.
Well, this is painfully awkward and ironic.
We are not talking about 1 kill. Not sure why you try to come back to that. We talk about the total chance of 1 kill + 1 kill + 1 kill
vs
1 kill +1 kill +1 kill +1 kill +1 kill +1 kill +1 kill +1 kill +1 kill.
This is the difference between 1 lfr wing and the whole raid.
So what is the chance in 3 rolls vs 9 rolls.
It is definitely more likely to have a bullion after 9 rolls than after 3.
Nobody talks about the individual 3rd roll vs the individual 9th roll either.
I’m sorry I’m being speshul!
Yes. But thats because you now again, start to see the rolls as a sequence and not individual rolls, as they are. So if the bullion drop chance is 50% its still going to be 50% at the end…
That’s why you can’t bring your own dice obviously… But just like you wouldn’t call the casino scammers or you wouldn’t question a roulette table for cheating if you lost 5 times in a row, I don’t understand why you start questioning OP…
Your logic is does not hold… You start to question the validity of them having to go into the ladder part of LFR to get their buillion just because you and “your network” got it earlier, while there is no statistical probability that would show the precedents of getting it early…
Again… Sequence… We’re not talking about a sequence… We’re talking of 1 boss having 30% (an example) of giving you the outcome. Boss nr 2 has the same 30%, this does not change regardless of how many bosses you killed, just like the roulette table… But for some reason you guys want to see it as a sequence of “Can I get nothing 2 times in a row” which is a flawed way of looking at the mechanic, which I tried explaining with the roulette table… I even explained why seeing it as a sequence rather than individual rolls is flawed, but for some reason you two keep coming back to the “Oh but the probability of doing something multiple times in a row”… That is not the case… xD The bosses are not statistically linked, hence why some people get it on the first kill and some people on the last… if they were statistically linked, we would have a curve that is either left or right tailed, but here it should theoretically be bell curved…
You really can’t use anectodal sample sizes as you’re not sure that everyone tells you at what boss they get it… You probably hear or notice more of one side.
Noooo not really… I can also recommend you the exact same books. Because just like the other person, you want to see the bosses as a sequence and not individual rolls. Your own example of
Shows it… you don’t distinguish the boss kills as two individual but you see them as 2 connected. Again… Super awkward that you two keep missing the whole point which is the bosses are individual rolls…
By your logic everyone farming ICC for the mount should get it pretty fast, because not getting it after X amount of times should be statistically more unlikely… But that is not the case, why? because each kill is individual rolls… Like gooooolllyyyy xD
We are seeing every individual boss kill as individual, but that is rather off topic. When it is about the likelyhood to understand after how many boss kills you have a bullion, you have to see it as a sequence.
You clearly are not…
We totally understand every boss kill is 1 roll and has the same chance. No worries (also have mentioned that now 10) times. But that wasn’t what we were talking about.
Who is “we” ? YOU joined into a discussion about me questioning why someone would question the validity of someone saying they had to go later in the LFR or it must be “bug” because them and their network got it early on… So fail to see the logic of you now dictating what my own discussion is about?
That is fair. Still you commented 100 times on me needing to read a statistics book without probably then having read my posts and statements. While you have been wrong 100 times by claiming my statements were wrong.
Ironically.