OP, don’t be daft.
They’ve put a lot of resources into hiring people to distribute loot in the background. If they don’t like you you get nothing!
Ppl shout conspiracy, yet when i open the vault i have 2 epic items and rest blue, i get Upgrades for the 2 epics.
I wonder if anything is buried in the T&C small print which could be interpreted as an admission that RNG isn’t really quite random but linked to player behaviour. For example “for entertainment purposes” or whatever.
WoW is already filled with not so subtle systems designed to influence behaviour and increase subscription time from the obvious ones such as time gating on down.
Hexus, you made me think about something. When I come back from a long break and resub, I seem to get awesome loot for a couple of days. This is especially noticeable on mog runs. After a 6 month break on one account I resumed 2 mog runs and got both items straight away.
I also noticed that when i get bored and cancel my sub, the week before it runs out I seem to get luckier.
Then it got me thinking - that reason you give for sub cancelling could be linked to a behind the scenes algorithmic structure - “game not rewarding” being one of the options.
This could of course all be confirmation bias or distorted perception…but…from my own extensive digital marketing experience the lengths it’s possible to go to digitally to influence customer behaviour based on data is incredible - and WoW not only has your standard data that other companies would have…but every decision, login, dungeon you ran etc since you started playing.
So yeah, it makes total sense to create an understanding of player frustration and to have the game know when to keep you just the right side of cancelling - but subtly, so that it doesn’t become exploitable or cause outrage that, in reality, this whole thing is a rigged table.
1 Like
I mean, this is presumably why people leave LFR the moment an item drops. We all kind of know we don’t get 2 drops in 1 wing, even though it’s meant to be a % chance per boss.
I think I have seen people walk away with 2 pieces of loot from a normal-heroic CN clear… but it’s rare. Mostly if you get a cloak at Shriekwing, that’s all you’re getting this week.
That all said; I don’t have evidence about any kind of loot algorithm, just numerous anecdotes of people all having a similar experience. We’d have to establish some monitoring over several thousand accounts if I wanted to actually swing real accusations. Might be possible to write a mod that would track time played/week and whether any vault items are an upgrade however… all you need to know is the best 2 stats for every spec (easy), and the current/offered ilvls for that slot. I do have a hunch that players who are more active are likely to get more duplicates.
1 Like
But if the chance of loot dropping is 33% and a player gets a piece of gear from the first boss then they’re logically going to concede that that is all the loot they’re going to get from this run. As opposed to a guild run where you’re there to support the team, there’s no logical sense in staying for the rest of the wing.
That’s not true though. If you toss a coin twice, you don’t definitely get 1 head and 1 tail. You can’t predict the 2nd toss based on the 1st.
If you have a 33% chance at each boss, your chance on the 3rd boss is no different whether you did or did not get loot from the first or second bosses. It’s still a 33% chance on the 3rd boss. Always.
In theory. If it is truly an unbiased % chance.
But it is so, so, so common to no more than 1 item per wing that it doesn’t seem to tally with truly random % chances. I do not, at this time, trust that there is not an algorithm being our loot drops. Evidence is anecdotal, but it’s an anecdote I hear enough to be open to the possibility that the phenomenon is real.
(Side note; hey Blizz, why not just make all loot come from a chest at the end and solve the leaver problem?)
2 Likes
But most people don’t look at it like that do they? If you told them the chance of loot is 1/3 and they see three bosses as soon as they get a piece of loot they’ll decide that’s all their going to get from this run and ditch it.
I agree that the loot chest at the end is a good idea but how do you cater for those that have to legitimately drop a group halfway through?
I am also increasingly convinced of this, at least on a per character basis. My monk in BFA whom I stuck with seemed to struggle with drops and upgrades but alts seemed to get showered in gear. My favourite time was when I dusted off a paladin that had sat dormant for a patch or so. I decided to put him through the cloak quests and joined in fighting the world boss in Uldum on the way back to Wrathion. Boom! Two bits of loot from the world boss (regular and bonus roll). All my more regularly played characters that week got nothing but bloody azerite.
I’ve noticed it less in Shadowlands as I’ve barely been playing. But my monk has once again struggled to get loot but alts seem to get much more lucky.
2 Likes
I wonder if this is perception, rather than something which actually happens. I.e. you play the alt less frequently so the “lucky drops” are more memorable, or the luck appears bigger because you had less gear to begin with (like getting a 207 piece from a world boss on your fresh alt is amazing, but not even noteworthy on your 220+ main).
That said, I have always noticed that if you suddenly play a character you haven’t played in a while, you seem to have more luck. My husband farmed for Invincible on multiple characters every week for ages and got nothing. I joined him one night and specifically said “I’ll bring a character I haven’t played for a while for more luck” and lo and behold, Invincible dropped for me (of course I gave it to him).
Is there something going on behind the scenes, like some kind of increased good luck based on how little you’ve played? I mean, it sounds a bit nuts and yet we all have anecdotal evidence of that happening. I wonder if there’s anyway to more objectively assess?
2 Likes
This is the best conspiracy theory so far
1 Like
Well thanks for having the common sense. Not everyone has that, sometimes the opposite, dismissal of such ideas, as if big rich companies love them or some crap.
Though I don’t know if you’re being sarcastic, pretending to be a hippy with the word ‘man’. If you are , then it’s you who is the ‘clueless’ hippy. This isn’t mindless conjecture, it’s obvious understanding of modern day practices and a regarding of clear evidence from the horse itself with the patent. Stop defending or pretending these things don’t or couldn’t exist. You live a lie if you truly feel big companies aren’t capable of such things. Again, the patent says it all. Stop ignoring the evidence, or trying to flip it off with weak humour. You’d rather not think of such things since WoW must be your only outlet or it’s too much for your mind to accept such ugly mechanisms whilst playing WoW. Rather than turn to being a child and living blissfully ignorant, become aware and look less like an opportunity for people who are x9000 richer than you, to exploit you for your time or money.
You can still play WoW whilst accepting such ideas. It just means you can cut your subscription when things get too obvious or save yourself time playing with the game holding you back. You kids must think games are just games. No, that’s not true today. Games like MMOs are modelled or designed to purely make sure you’re hooked. Being hooked doesn’t mean you being EPIC, it means exploiting your psychology to keep you trying to become EPIC, as this model works better in the long run for Blizzard’s wallets.
I can’t stand people who ignore such ideas EVEN WHEN THERE’S A PATENT SHOWING THEY DO IT.
Is it a conspiracy theory when nearly 100% of players have had a similar experience? ¬_¬
Just saying, you don’t start Ghostbusters without being ready to believe.
2 Likes
If you want to believe there is some conspiracy of loot going on, you are welcome to.
It’s a tiny percentage of the playerbase that is exceedingly unlucky and never gets any upgrades.
2 Likes
Nobody controls what loot you get. It’s random. Some people might not thinkg it is becasue of their experience with loot but the thing is any sequence of values is equally random.
This kind of system for wow would be too complex and require too much supervision(and that adds cost) to gain very little benefit. People alraedy pay monthly to play. People already buy store mounts, pets and boosts. Simple random low chance on loot is good enough to keep people paying to play because of law of large numbers.
This kind of system is better suited to real money paid loot boxes.
1 Like
It’s not that I never get decent loot… it’s that the more lax I am about playing, the more I seem to ‘randomly’ get good things. And the harder I play, the more likely I am to receive duplicates - or nothing.
The game seems to be stuffed with diminishing-returns systems, and I’m not convinced that loot isn’t one of them. It would fit the established pattern 
I really don’t see why it requires any supervision.
Let’s centre the concept on the vault:
- for each spec, there are known best stats
- for each player, upon opening the vault, there will be some slots with worse gear than others, relative to the known best stats
- for players who seem to be lapsing, the algorithm identifies a low ilvl piece of gear and offers something with better ilvl and optimal stats for that player’s loot spec
- for frequent players who do not need any incentive to play more, and may even be at risk of “over playing”, maxing the character, and quitting - explicitly do not offer items with optimal stats. Keep them pulling the arm on that gambling machine, because if they win, they walk out the door.
This can be driven off a list of ~30 specs and access to the game’s loot tables. It requires manual intervention only if a spec changes to the point where its optimal stats also change.
Sure, maybe one day it offers you a 226 over your current 220, and maybe for weird interaction reasons it sims out exactly the same; but you’re still happy the vault gave you a 226 with perfect stats. You’re now incentivised to come back and play a bit more.
I’m not saying this reasoning is sensible, logical, or something we the players would consider fair. But it does fit Blizzard’s habit of trying real hard not to let us max a character. They seem scared of the idea that we might get a full BiS set and quit, and they love putting artificial obstacles in our way.
1 Like
I respect that. That is still very much possible. Also possible is subtle rigging. Simply you and others can very much easily put it to the side. But subtle works well for Blizzard in the larger picture, not just your loot chances but for millions of others at once.
BiS and ilvl scanning is very simple. The cost for such system (actually simple) is out done by a gentle loot rigging across millions of players. Gently guaranteeing a gentle enforced carrot on the stick in the background. For shareholders that’s a golden hand shake.
Yes, we have no proof only personal experiences. The patent very clearly shows activision’s line of thinking or desires for such models to exist, obviously with the desire for players not to know. Obviously. This is money and PR talking here - massive basics that children on this forum amazingly can’t grasp.
Yes, but they know most people don’t care to buy stuff off the store when mounts and fancy stuff is in the game for free. Basic psychology. This contrast can be exploited by activision-blizzard. Psychology is simple, the fancy store mounts to young players who have no easy access to money are even more incentivised to do mount runs every week. My cousin of 20 (hapless type young person) is always doing raid runs for mounts, he has no or little access to money. He’s constantly talking about mounts and constantly doing raid runs every week. This is prime beef for activision-blizzard. The kids who mock these systems are the very ones being milked and loved by shareholders.
Well it simply happens for loot boxes. I don’t think rich companies would leave it to chance. Instead cleverly rig it so it seems they’re doing ok with loot. Such simple psychology manipulation.
I could easily manipulate all those on this thread who disregard it. So very easily. Subtle, give you some scraps, give you medium scraps, the odd golden piece, but I will make sure the golden pieces have nice gaps for those monthly subs. Simply simulate RNG. So easy.
When you put a subtle system in, at large, across millions of players, this works well for activision-blizzard. For the individual they can happily go on their merry way and not be too thwarted. Though in reality they are being thwarted, enough, as to have their time mocked or played with.
That patent says it all. Confirms my business sense. Which should be basic to most people. Kids will be kids, who always like to live in their own world and make sure it isn’t made upset - even if that is reality talking. Their input is meaningless. Like most adult dilemmas. Just that, they have access to the internet to spout baseless words/insults across forums. What I say isn’t baseless because I admit plausibility and also have strong proof from the same company I’m talking about, showing the same psychological manipulation and hidden mechanisms that my thread is based on.
Basically I’m putting up with kids who know nothing of the world.
I did… it’s just a comedy.
2 Likes
And this is why it remains just a conspiracy theory. In this case it’d require a large enough sample to prove it statistically and one person’s experience won’t amount to anywhere near that. The requirements to set up a system you’re suggesting are also ridiculous since it isn’t just a matter of having the system look at ilvl pr. slot. It’d also take some amount of manpower and knowledge to ensure that the secondary stats make something an upgrade and then factor this in when coding the system.
I dare say that the cost of creating and maintaining this type of system isn’t worth it over a simple random distribution of loot based on how loot currently can be obtained.
1 Like
Yes I know. The patent is a strong pointer to our personal experiences.
What you see in game is simply in simple text in a database. You simply make an algorithm for this ‘BiS and ilvl’ scanning and you’re golden. The rest is automated. It’s actually very simple.
The excuse of it’s too complicated is false straight away and also a wealthy company can easily implement a basic automated algorithm.
Totally wrong. This system is a basic automated system. iLvl needs no manual upkeep in a database. In regards to BiS, this is a simple database edit for the automatic algorithm.
This simple system therefore that operate across millions of subscribers is very much worth it. You’re completely wrong there.
In the 2nd week of raiding, i got the weapontoken from the 2nd heroic boss of Nathria.
It is, to this day, the only weapon token that dropped in Nathria from that boss in 2.5 months( we quit after that)
I use that weapon today since there is NO OTHER WEAPON TOKEN, THERE ISNT, THEY SAY DADDY DENATHRIUS HAS ONE BUT THATS A COMPLETE AND UTTER LIE BYU THE LEFT WINGED PROPAGANDA MEDIA, excuse me … old habbits.
My point is.
For 2 months not a single token dropped yet alot of people want it, so they keep raiding
1 Like