I will steal this for the next time people start talking about wanting dual spec. Its all true and have always been true what you say.
Yes. for 10 and 5 man content there will be a shortage of tanks. For 25 man there will be an excess of tanks. This is because of ratios. 25 man content requires 3 tanks (including 1 feral druid) which is 12%. 5 and 10 man content requires 1 and 2 tanks respectively which is 20%.
The actual population of tanks will probably be somewhere between 12% and 20%. let’s say, for example, it’s 15%. Assuming a balanced demand for content of all sizes between tanks and non-tanks that would result in 25% (5/20) of the 5-10 man content that would have happened if there were enough tanks not happening unless the tank respecs (therefore queues and tank fees), and in 20% (3/15) of tanks being unable to do 25 man raids unless they respec.
The issues others have mentioned of tanking being hard and tanks being the target of abuse may push that % closer to 12%, or just mean that the 75% of 10 and 5 man that still happens is mostly not pug groups, and finding a tank for pugs is even harder.
My understanding is that the problem is not gear but specs and that it’s not possible to tank heroics or kara as an arms warrior, ret paladin or balance druid, and therefore the issues that I explain in more detail above about ratios remain.
Having feral druids and prot paladins become viable in TBC does not help at all where there is still a maximum of 3 tank slots in 25 man raids, they will simply replace prot warriors.
If it’s true that there are characters that tank 10 man content but don’t tank 25 man raids, then yes this will ease the tank shortage for 5 man content since the ratios for 10 and 5 man content are the same (except maybe you need more healers and less dps, so expect a healer shortage for 10-mans too if 3 healers becomes the standard). However my argument is that if there is just as high demand amongst tanks to run 25 man content as other content, then there will be a tank shortage for both 5 and 10 man content, and an excess of tanks for 25 man content.
People wont take in as many warriors as they did?
Simple as that.
Warlocks & hunters reign supreme etc.
There never was a healer shortage at TBC during my time, you can do most raids with just 4 healers, 6 is the standard and 8 during the learning phase. Kara is 3 healers at the start, then its 2 but it was also done with 1 and a shadow before. ZG is almost overkill with 3, but for lesser geared healers adviced.
We always had to bench 2-3 healers at TBC 25, they were either forced to sit out or play DPS as a lot of bosses just dont require that much healing. You can avoid a lot of damage in TBC by just knowing the mechanics, so over time more and more healers must have an off spec.
As soon you start raiding, you will notice how strong healing is at TBC, a great healer can easily replace 3 that were carried in Vanilla.
We used to struggle with DPS attendancy, the mechanics were more demanding than at Vanilla and not every DPS was actually good at this. Here I see the main issue with raiding at TBC, finding good DPS.
Heal and tanks will be plenty, lesser good players might not have a high chance to find a guild there, but DPS spots will be available most of the time.
That being said, this is original TBC - its quite possible that private realms have a different meta, so who knows maybe I am wrong.
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