No primals wtf?

General Discussion
21

Absolutely.

Chance that a legendary is primal = (1/400) = 0.0025
Chance that a legendary is not primal = (399/400) = 0.9975
Chance that none of X legendaries are primal = (399/400)^X

Chance that none of 2000 legendaries are primal = (399/400)^2000 = 0.006695896276
i.e. roughly 1 in 149 players would get that result, which is a completely believable claim.

But the claim was…

The chance of not getting any ancients in 1970 legendaries came out at 3.3 in 10^92. There are 10^80 atoms in the universe. The chance of this streak happening would be the equivalent of picking one specific atom out of one trillion universes this size.

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22

It was indeed the case.

Today I ran a normal rift. 2 legendaries.

Another rift. 14 legs

Another. 6 legs

Total ancients out of 22 legendaries today: 5

Not only is it abnormal for 2 and 6 drops in a rift - 14 would be slightly higher than average, just because I received 5 ancients out of 22legs (higher than average) does not mean the drop rate of ancient items is just over 4 out of 20.

Statistically, any thing is possible

23

T16 rift over 2 floors:

2 legendaries, no ancients (surprise surprise) 3 gr stones out of a possible 8

https://imgur.com/bEksxdH


https://imgur.com/fuxJxns

https://imgur.com/XpXMZB8

24

3.3 in 10^92 is statistically possible but it’s not even remotely probable.

The current population of the Earth is rough 7.888 billion people. Let’s say every single one of them played Diablo III and that they could all do GR100s in an average of 3 minutes (including all the between run bloodshard gambling, sorting out inventory and so on). Let’s pretend that they didn’t need to eat, drink, sleep, work, take toilet breaks and so on, so they could play for 24 hours a day. Let’s pretend that they could do this for a decade straight, i.e. 3652 days (assuming 2 leap years). So, let’s crunch some maths…

If it takes 3 minutes per GR that means you can fit 20 in an hour, which means 480 in a day, which means 1,752,960 GRs in 3652 days. Now multiply that by 7,888,000,000 players, that’s 13,827,348,480,000,000 GRs. Each GR drops 12 loots, 10 legendaries, 2 which can be white / blue / yellow / legendary, so let’s just go with an average of 11 legendaries per GR. That’s 11 * 13,827,348,480,000,000 = 152,100,833,280,000,000 legendaries.

So, if the entire population of Earth did 3 minute GRs, non-stop for a decade, they’d generate 152,100,833,280,000,000 legendaries, i.e. 1.52 * 10^16.

That’s still 10^76 times less than needed for your claim.

25

latest GR. level 128

21.48 UK time.

O ancients, which is typical at level 128 in my game

https://imgur.com/a/m9x8exL

https://imgur.com/dwiAWT2

26

Chance that a legendary will not be ancient or primal = (359/400)
Chance that none of X legendries will be ancient or primal = (359/400)^X
Chance that none of 12 legendries will be ancient or primal = (359/400)^12 = 0.27315772498

Over a quarter of players would get this result from a single GR that generated 12 legendaries.

One individual run’s result doesn’t alter the fact that the chance getting zero ancients from 2000 legendaries is so incredibly low that it’s effectively zero.

27

Who said they got zero ancients from 2000 legendaries?

I said that i got zero primals from 2000, and that is beyond 2000 by now

28

You

That means around 1675/1700 legendaries were not ancient.

That means around 1970/2000 were not ancient.

Your claim was about ancients, not primals.

29

Even someone as adept as you knows that 1700 is less than 2000, and that 20(ish) ancients resulted from 1700. At around 2250 that’s around 45 (ish) now.

How do you manage to claim that 1700 legendaries resulting in 20 or so ancients leads to “an allegation” of 2000 drops resulting in zero ancients? (@meteorblade)

30

Your initial claim…

  • 1700 legendaries
  • 20 (or so) ancients
  • 0 primals

Your subsequent claim

  • 2000 legendaries
  • 26 (or so) ancients
  • 0 primals

This means the claim is that you got 26 (or so) ancients from 2000 legendaries.
This means the claim is that 1974 (or so) of the 2000 legendaries were not ancient.

The chances of that is (359/400)^1974 = 1 in 5.2 * 10^92

31

So where did I state that I received zero ancients from 2000 legendaries?

You are being quite emphatic about that particular statement

32

If it were exactly 2000, it’d be 26 (or so) ancients from 2000 but you said over 2000. Fairly sure at one point one of the posts mentioned 2200 but posts have been edited since they were made and I can’t find this now. Regardless, if the “over 2000” was 2026 or more, that gets you to 2000 legendaries that were not ancient.

Heck, even if the claim was exactly 2000 (rather than over 2000) that still leaves a claim that none of 1974 legendaries were ancient.

33

Zero primals for sure, but around 45 legendaries out of “roughly” 2200 thus far, which is by no means a good record, albeit a better run today

I wrote all along zero primals. Perhaps you’re somehow confusing the two in this particular thread?

34

No, I’m not confused.

I would be entirely unsurprised by a run of 2200 legendaries with 0 primals.

However…

  • Your initial claim was 20 or so ancients after obtaining 1700 legendaries.
  • Your subsequent claim was an additional 6 ancients after obtaining over 2000 legendaries.

Now your claim is…

I presume you actually meant “around 45 ancients out of 2200 thus far”.

Okay, let’s go with that…

  • 2200 legendaries
  • 45 ancients
  • 0 primals

That means you are claiming that 2155 of 2200 legendaries were standard legendaries, i.e. they were not ancient or primal.

Chance that none of 2145 legendaries are ancient or primal = (359/400)^2145

That’s a 1 in 5.5 * 10^100 chance.

35

thanks for the correction. Indeed 45 ancients out of around 2200 legendaries. Prior: 26, possible 27 out of 2000. That means subsequently 19 ancients out of the last 200 drops today.

It still doesn’t equate to zero ancients out of 2000

36

Up until yesterday I had played wizard a lot for some days (not playing for hours on end that is) and I hadn’t seen a primal. Then I switched to my demon hunter and in the first GR two primals dropped (because of season and the Altar). Nothing magical of course because I didn’t get more primals after that whether on wiz or dh.
Funny thing; both primals were Ice Climbers. Usually the double drops are different items.

Another funny thing; the rule is that if you post about not getting something in the game, you’ll get what you want, within in reason, if you continue to play. I guess this only works for season play? :anguished:

37

I’m beginning to think it could be a glitch at this stage

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38

It’s impossible to know what happens “under the hood” of the game. It would be nice with some kind of counters or statistics built into the game where we could see various things like number of legendaries, ancient legendaries and primal ancient legendaries over a given time period.

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39

That might be within grasp actually. We can see stats on almost everything else. How many hours we played a certain character, leader boards for every set to the 100th of a second , all achievements and the date of them, and so on

40

I can at least confirm that it isn’t a glitch

https://imgur.com/a/yjzscvr