No primals wtf?

Maybe it’s a glitch that you got one :grin:

Cheers anyway :+1: Hope they’ll start rolling in.

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I can confirm this :sweat_smile:
And it works in reverse too. I posted a couple of days ago that I have a decent amount of primal drops, and since then my luck is dramatically lower. :rofl:

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I haven’t had a single legendary, ancient or primal in a couple of weeks! Of course, that’s because I haven’t played in a couple of weeks but that’s why you have to be careful with statistics. :wink:

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For me it’s the best season with Primals. I even got a lot of them in cube. BTW, you only get one primal from Horadric Cache, from Cube or Kadala. Altar won’t help you there. Most of Primals I got in Hatred Fissures, IMHO it’s the best place to get them, as there are so many Legendaries/Ancients/Primals dropping by monsters (much higher chance for Primals too).

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Kadala gives double primals. You are right about the other things. I remember a youtube video from Wudijo from season 28 where he gambles and when his inventory gets full with the primal, the extra one drops on the ground.
If everything in the game works as it should it shouldn’t matter what activity we do (apart from the activities that don’t give doubles) the only thing that matters is the statistics that say one (double) drop in around 400 drops.
I got two primal Aughild bracers shortly after each other crafting some batches of them last evening (not double of course) when working on getting bracers for a firebird character. And I wasn’t crafting them by the hundred, maybe just 20 or 30 all in all. I also crafted Aughild’s shoulders and Capt. Crimson stuff to get ancient stuff (without seing more primals)… The primal Aughilds were salvaged by the way :grin:

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Interesting thing is: D3 doesn’t say that the drop rate is 1 /400. Game players have come to this assessment

It’s also based on collected data from different sources.
Some from methodical players’ own statistics, some from illegal software providers’ home pages.

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That does not make it an official drop rate. Shaolin is correct, we do NOT know the actual drop rate. RNG is a very tricky thing and some people just get lucky. I have watched players like RAX do GR after GR and get dozens of Ancients and 3-4 Primals in a couple of hours. I have also seen players stream for 12hrs straight and not get a single one. All the players wo claimed they “did the math” based on their experience could simply have been lucky on the day.
I came here today because I am having the exact same issue as Shaolin. Having collected thousands of legendaries on my character, grinding high GRs, I have yet to get a single Primal drop…not one! I have had maybe 40 Ancients at best.
I have played for years and never experienced this low a drop rate in any season. I dont usually get dozens of them anyway but to get ZERO is not something I have ever experienced before. We are not the only ones saying this either, plenty of players talking about it. The drop rate has changed and they have not told us, either because they are being sneaky or they did it by mistake and dont even realise it.

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One source provided details of literally millions of legendary / set drops per day and had multiple year’s worth of data. Let’s say 10 million drops per day, for 1825 days (5 years), that’s 18,250,000,000 data points. The drop rate for primals, from a data pool of 18.25 billion items, came out to very close to 0.25%, i.e. 1 in 400.

This is effectively the Expected Value as defined in the Law of Large Numbers.

In probability theory, the law of large numbers (LLN) is a mathematical theorem that states that the average of the results obtained from a large number of independent and identical random samples converges to the true value, if it exists.

18.25 billion absolutely counts as a large number of samples.

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Sadly. Statistics don’t preclude extremely poor luck :frowning_face:

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They certainly don’t.

If 10,000 legendary items drop over a period, say, 2 months and 990 are ancient - slightly less than 10% - that means 9010 were not ancient.

That mean 0/9010 legendaries were not ancient, and that is TOTALLY improbable

:smiling_face_with_three_hearts:

1/400 is a chance, and not a certainty.
.

It’s like the end of a rift when you get 90% chance to upgrade a gem - and it could fail every time, 4 times. That has happened with me several times

yes, the chance was 90% consecutively - but the result was 0%

Edit: Stick with it. It changes, though I sometimes “feel” that the devs have a naughty filter for players they don’t like!! It might be a glitch -the primal drop that even the devs might not be aware of.

This is statistically possible, albeit incredibly unlikely, but only if all 9010 of those were primals. :wink:

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And 25 of the 10.000 should be primal ancient… :astonished:

To the other post: I’ve never had four fails at 90%… that would make me rage quit! :smiley:

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Believe me. I almost did. It is like the set that grants you 25% extra chance to drop a greater rifstone sometimes very rarely you might get eight. Sometime, You might get three. The law of average says that you probably get around five.

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My record at fails with 90 percent are 6 times in a row. And it happens a lot there. I get more success rate with 15/30 percent then at 90. As for 1/400 my statistics is showing that it is kind of accurate. Last time I hadn’t get any Primals between around 800 Legendary artifacts and then I got double pair of them (in the row), That was happened second time when I get a pair of them (so in total 4). sometimes you get Primals after 100+ or 200+ or 300+, sometimes 600+ or 700+ or 1000. But in total it’s very near 1/400 chance.

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The RNG in this game is crazy some times. Sometimes you get the feeling that the algorithm is stuck in a loop, repeating the same (negative or (rarely) positive) result over and over. :smiley:

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