Primal drop rate

Am I being forced into playing public games in seasons? I did a level 70 solo to be able to get primal ancients. I ran 50GR’s level 70 and 50 Nephalem rifts. on top of that I have spent thousands of Blood Shards at Kadala and tried hundreds of upgrades at Kanai’s Cube. Yet the onlyPrimal Ancient I have thus far is the one you get from doing the level 70 GR. I love to play this game solo, but you have made it almost impossible get any upgrades beyond Ancient items. And this is not the first season this happened. Why can’t you make it so that soloists get a higher drop rate for primals, but are restricted to playing solo throughout the season. If this does not change I am going to quit this game entirely.

Rough estimates…

T16 Rift
10 legendaries per run
50 runs = 500 legendaries

GR70
10 legendaries per run
50 runs = 500 legendaries

Okay, so that’s a total of 1000 legendaries.
Primals are, on average, 1 in 400 legendaries so…

Chance that an individual legendary will not be primal = (399/400)
Chance that none of X legendaries will be primal = (399/400)^X

Okay, so let’s try some values of X…

Chance that none of 200 legendaries will be primal = (399/400)^200 = 0.60615
Chance that none of 400 legendaries will be primal = (399/400)^400 = 0.36741
Chance that none of 600 legendaries will be primal = (399/400)^600 = 0.22271
Chance that none of 800 legendaries will be primal = (399/400)^800 = 0.13499
Chance that none of 1000 legendaries will be primal = (399/400)^1000 = 0.08182

Very roughly, 1 in 12 people would get exactly the result you did.
It’s not broken.

Take a quick peek at my seasonal Impale DH - TwentyOne
With the exception of a few rounds of public Bounties, she was pretty much solo her entire season. She has three primals for the Shadow/Impale build, and has a primal Rapid Fire quiver in her Stash. She’s paragon 838, played time was roughly 43 hours and I haven’t touched her since 9th July. Even though half her gear isn’t even ancient yet, she’d done something like a GR105.

Her first guaranteed primal was a Chaingmail which rolled with INT on it, she’s wearing three Impale build primals and has a primal rapid fire quiver in her stash. RNG is a totally valid explanation for your experiences and mine. Heck, last season I didn’t get a Ramaladni’s Gift until after I’d completed Guardian.

Blizzard aren’t going to change something that isn’t broken.

haha you just had to rub that in with that DH of yours Meteorblade.
Guess you’re 1 of the most lucky characters on this seasons getting that amount of primals and on top of that for 1 spec.

Personally i had 2 so far myself, i also play 100% solo (Got to GR114, paragon 878).
I had the guaranteed lvl70 drop that is always the same 1 every season (for me it’s the irontoe mudsputters). And a necklace that doesn’t fit in any spec.

Don’t focus too much on primals is my only advice. You aren’t supposed to get a full set. if you get 1 you can use (as in for the best spec for that class, or spec you want to play), you are extremely lucky.
I didnt keep track how many legendaries i had thusfar this season, and i couldnt make an educated guess really.

If you look at the top of the leaderboard ofcourse you will see players with several primals for the best spec. but some of those are the people that were over paragon 3000 after only 7 days in season. it’s unimaginable how much they done + have a farm group for 1 class where all the drops go to 1 player

Last night got 2 primal gloves from Kadala in single gambling - spending 1200 Bloodshards. Total 4 primal’s yesterday, 1 - T16, 1- GR and 2 from Kadala. Sometimes you’ll spend days farming and not gonna get any primal, and sometimes you will get 2 or more in a day.

Very often I got ancient gear, near primal quality or better (have desired stats) and primal’s with no good stats.

50GR’s and 50 regular rifts and you are saying there is a problem with Primals droprate? And even with the bounties and cube you did, the amount of materials you could get from that isn’t that much. Not sure what you mean by thousands but I earned at least 3 000 last night, not even four hours of play. And yeah have a nice speed farming build going but nothing crazy.

Point being, I have played around 50 hours with my current character and have gotten like 10 Primals (guessing but its a conservative guess). 5 hours per Primal is seriously not a big deal at all. Shit is maybe like half that. And that amount of rifts you mentioned would take a few hours yes, but this means you are probably just being a bit unlucky and that is nothing against the game. You might just hop on tomorrow and get like 3, its possible.

And also don’t just look at Primals, they aren’t what is holding you back at that amount of play time at all.

This is all coming from someone who hasn’t played with anyone else in years so I am not talking from a position of group drop rates.

By this point of the season a lot of people would be able to farm T16 rifts in under 2 minutes, and run a GR90 in under 3 minutes.

Each T16 rift gives 3 guaranteed GR keys, with a 50% chance of a 4th one. So, on average, if you did 10 T16 rifts, you’d get 35 GR keys. Let’s say you get 12 legendaries per T16 run, and the same per GR Guardian. Let’s also factor in that some of the bloodshards you earn might result in legendaries too, so let’s say another 3-4 per run. So, let’s go with 45 * 16 = 720 legendaries, and head on back to the Binomial Distribution Calculator

Number of events = 720
Probability of success per event = 0.25%

Probability of getting 1 or more successes = 83.5%
Probability of getting 2 or more successes = 53.75%
Probability of getting 3 or more successes = 26.93%
Probability of getting 4 or more successes = 10.847%
Probability of getting 5 or more successes = 3.621%
Probability of getting 6 or more successes = 1.0274%
Probability of getting 7 or more successes = 0.25286%

Okay, so there’s better than a 4 in 5 chance of getting at least one primal from that amount of T16 rifts / GR90s. But remember, that was 10 sub-2 minute rifts, and 35 sub-3 minute GRs. Let’s add in some time in town for salvaging and spending shards, make the T16s be 2.5 minutes each and the GR 3.5 minutes each. That’s (10 * 2.5) + (35 * 3.5) = (25) + (122.5) = 147.5 minutes, or just under two and a half hours.

Okay, factor in some real life human stuff like needing to go to the toilet, making a cup of tea, having something to eat, talk to other people and so on, and add another half an hour to each play session like that.

That’s still better than 4 in 5 chance of at least one primal every 3 hours.
Is this really not high enough?

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First off again i’ll state i don’t think there is anything wrong with primal droprate.
As said before, primals are not the goal.

The math is correct i guess but the numbers you used dont match my experience
Or is this from a group player perspective?
A T16 run gives me 5-7 legendaries on average. As you mention 2 minutes per rift i assume you leave after the Rift boss as well. GR90 is 10-11 so that matches
Shards same different experience with numbers. you says you get 3-4 legendaries per 350-400 shards? My average is 1-2 per 750 shards (using 750 as i always have an empty inventory when i go spend, and thats 750 to fill it all up)

All in all, it remains probability. thats the keyword
You could have 10.000 legendaries and still have 0 primal besides your mudsputters.

ps. i always thought 0.25% were of ancients turning into primals. but i realise that was always just my assumption. and you know what they say about assuming.

With this thread in mind, it means you Gain Sums? :wink:

Playing in groups doesn’t increase the drop rate of primals. You can do higher content and faster when in group (probably) and that is gonna net you more loot per hour. So with more items dropped you could find a primal easier. But the chance is exactly the same. Quality-wise though, there is no guarantee that it will be the primal that you want and with desired affixes.

playing in groups also increases amount of legendaries to drop. Groups always were a triple edged blade (if such a thing exist) in that regard.

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haha.
But do you really get those numbers, or are they a bit favoured for the math to work out better.
Otherwise i need to make a ticket i guess…i just did 4 T16 runs while watching TV. that gave me in total, 9 legendaries. hooray

That. And someone else from the group can drop you an item that already has or they don’t need and that is some extra items from group play. I must have dropped six times the complete gears of dreadlands set by now in normal rifts to other people and some of them were even ancients.

I love that this is the second drop rate discussion where you not only tell the person its RNG but then show them the math and they just say you are wrong because their anecdotal evidence.

People have a serious misunderstanding of how odds work if they say the numbers are false because that is not what they experience.

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Just another day I ran with friend T15 NRift - I got 2 Primal’s on that (useless ofcourse) and we go to next one and I got 1 more (with good thang!!) , friend = nothing…

All goes to RNG - once You have it - keep it up :wink:

if you happen to refer to me in this case, even though i shouldn’t feel adressed.
Than i would suggest to read again what i wrote. I understand calculating probability. I just said the numbers are off that he used to calculate as everybody can see. making the outcome for a high probability much faster

Okay, just for a giggle, let’s reduce the numbers and slow things down then…

T16 rift takes 3 minutes each, dropping 5 legendaries
GR90 takes 5 minutes each, dropping 10 legendaries
Assume a full minute in town between each rift / GR
Bloodshards combined from 2 T16 rifts and 7 GR90s gain another 10 legendaries

So…

10 * T16 rifts = (10 * 3) + (10 * 1) = (30) + (10) = 40 minutes
35 * GR90s = (35 * 5) + (35 * 1) = (175) + (35) = 210 minutes
Time spent in total = 250 minutes, i.e. 4 hours 10 minutes

Legendaries obtained…
T16 rifts = 10 * 5 = 50 legendaries
GR90s = 35 * 10 = 350 legendaries
Bloodshards = 5 * 10 = 50 legendaries

So, that’s 450 legendaries in 250 minutes. Add in 20 minutes for going to the bathroom, making a cup of tea, eating a bagel, or whatever, so 270 minutes.

450 legendaries in 270 minutes = 1.666666 legendaries per minute. At that rate, obtaining 400 legendaries would take approximately 240 minutes, i.e. 4 hours.

So, an average of a primal every four hours, if we assume a much lower legendary drop rate than I experience, increase the time per run, and add in a lot more standing about in town.

The difference between a good roll ancient and primal is minimum.
Some people also play the game non stop somehow.

I know this is not what you want to hear, but you are under wrong impression. RNG can be a real bitch, but it doesn’t mean that primals are near impossible to get. I had quite a few free days this season so I could run a lot of GRs. I got 9 primals from drops so far, including one dropping after I finished GR out of time. I couldn’t level a gem, but I got a red beam. You just need to play and understand that it’s down to the luck.

Nope, wasn’t addressing you. As far as I remember. Read your posts again and yeah what I said does not apply to you so if I did initially say that in reply to your posts it isn’t applicable.

i think meteor is an alien!