It seems like this event more than any other the game has had is giving me issues with the loot box system. In this event alone I’ve opened up around 35 loot boxes and the best thing I’ve gotten has been an emote and highlight intro. The rest of those were 3 commons and a rare every time without fail. It seems like the drop rates are way too low for legendary and rare items just so people will buy more loot boxes. It bothers me because I have to go through dozens of matches full of toxic players in one of the worst gaming communities I’ve ever seen just to be rewarded with nothing because blizzards rng is garbage.
2 Likes
The overall chances for an item to be Common, Rare, Epic and Legendary which was calculated by players based on apparent statistic are approximately 58.2%, 31.7%, 7.55% and 2.55%, respectively.[2][3] On 23 March, 2017, Blizzard published the official probability for Loot Box’s items, which is:
- A Rare item or above will be included in every box.
- An Epic item and above will be included, on average, once in every 5.5 loot boxes.
- A Legendary item will included, on average, once in every 13.5 boxes.
Seems like you just got unlucky.
unlucky literally every event
That sucks. Am I alone in finding the community fairly standard in video game terms?
The problem and true annoyance is though that the regular legendary skins are in the loot table too, and with that drastically decreasing the chance to get an event skin during the actual event, let alone a specific one. Little is more frustrating than getting a legendary skin for Ana and it NOT being Cabana but the Captain Amari or whatever it’s called. And I can’t be very happy about Blackbeard Torb either when there is a Zenyatta Pitcher to be had.
Just a gigantic rip-off. Is there actually a disclaimer somewhere stating that event boxes contain the other junk as well?
1 Like
Be like me, just dont care about skins 
1 Like
It is at least better than before.
Players who play the game longterm or opened a lot of lootboxes made their pool more and more narrow.
Basically, if you have any cosmetic but the event ones, the chances of getting an event cosmetic is basically 100%
Before the changes, dublicates were still in the loot pool so your chances of getting an event cosmetic was always pretty low.
Though I’ve heard you can still get dublicates, even if you have cosmetics to collect. They just appear much more rarely.
If it was limited to event items those duplicate random items would be a good thing because you would gather the credits to actually be able to get what you want. What’s the point in getting skins during an event that are available all year long - unlike the event stuff?
These special Loot Boxes are guaranteed to contain at least one item from the event’s item pool. All other rules of Loot Boxes (rarity chance, duplication, etc.) are still active for the seasonal event Loot Boxes. Furthermore, the probability for event items and normal items are calculated separately; therefore, the chance of encountering Epic and Legendary items are higher than in normal Boxes.
You are always guaranteed to get at least one event item in every loot box. Your chances of getting rarer Items is also increased.
And if they have done your suggestion, the legendary skin pool would consist out of around 3 skins at the first event and getting newer skins from future events would be a lot more difficult because of the increasing item pool.
i played on my friends acount cause he was on vacation i got about 10+ legandaries from 15 boxes 5 of them summer related also a bunch of epics as well
on my account the last legandary i got was in the aniversary event
This just proves that we are talking about probability.
If you have, for example, a chance of 5% to get a legendary item, you won’t get a legendary Item every 20 Lootboxes. It is still a matter of luck.
In fact, we can calculate at least how many lootboxes you have to open to get at least one legendary item with a chance of at least 99.9%
Click here for the mathematical solution
Based on this:
A Legendary item will be included, on average, once in every 13.5 boxes.
We can assume that the probability of getting a legendary (let’s call it event X) is 7.4% or 0.074 as a number
P(X=1) = 0.074 ~ 7.4%
P(X=1) indicates the probability of the event inside the brackets and the number behind the X indicates how often that event occurs. Now we have to create a mathematical equation for our desired event (at least one lootbox with a chance of at least 99.9%)
P(X≥1) ≥ 0.999 ~ 99.9%
However, since we are talking about a triple at least question, we can solve the question by determining the counter Event (The other Event that might happen):
How many lootboxes to you have to open to get no legendary item with a chance of less than 0.1%
Which is this in a mathematical equation
P(X<1) = P(X=0) ≤ 0.001
Now we have to solve it with this formula:
https://www.mein-lernen.at/images/Bernoulli-Kette-Formel.png
k indicates how often the event should occur (here 0 times)
n indicates how often we have to draw or open lootboxes (unknown)
p indicates the probability of the event to occur (0.074)
q indicates 1 - p (0.926)
Only n is unknown and by solving the equation towards n, we find out at least how many lootboxes we have to open to get no legendary item with a chance of less than 0.1%:
P(X=0) ≤ 0.001 — n ≥ 90
Since we know that this probability is the counter probability of P(X≥1), we can conclude that you have to open at least 90 loot boxes to get at least one legendary item with a chance of 99.9%.
You have to open at least 90 lootboxes to get at least one legendary item with a chance of at least 99.9%
The number of Lootboxes to open decreases with a lower desired probability:
- Chance of at least 98%: 51 Lootboxes
- Chance of at least 90%: 30 Lootboxes
- Chance of at least 50%: 9 Lootboxes
This just shows how flawed our perception of randomness really is.
And how much of a math geek I am…
They are, which is why I never buy them.
I perfer low drop rates for high graded items, I would love it if they had like 0.5% drop chance and you only ever saw time once in a blue moon, at least they would be special, the whole system of graded items is just a marketing ploy, they are just different designs, who says this skin is rare and this one is legendary.
bah humbug.
And ofcourse 10000000 useless sprays and 250000 flags for each country.
Well, that I can handle since at least those seem to be event-only right now (I am not entirely sure since there is so much of that junk) but the regular all-year skins included in the boxes is just…
As for the Icons… If at the start of the event you could at least pick one and with that actually represent, this whole event could even have some meaning, but like this I just have to agree with
Major disappointment this whole thing. All the excitement from before it started totally evaporated.
In my opinion most summer event items are rubbish. The few skins (and other items) I care about for my favourite heros can be bought easily and rather quickly from in-game gold. Some good skins are tied to events (like Van Helsing mccree skin) but during anniversary event even those were purchasable with in-game gold.
Having duplicates and low legendary drop rates annoy only those who are fanatic about collecting everything. The fanatic collector is made even unhappier by the fact that some items seems to be next impossible to collect: Noire skin that requires OW pre-purchase. Do you want to buy WOW collectors edition just to get some tracer emotes even if you don’t want to play WOW? Some items are tied to purchasing other Blizzard products or more expensive versions of the same game (like StarCraft, OverWatch Legendary Edition, etc…). Business, and in my opinion a fair one but tough to psychologically swallow for some. 
On my main account I already have about 70% of all hero items so most of my normal loot boxes drop only duplicates which amounts to 30 in-game gold most of the time. I usually pray for one of the items to be 50, 150 or 500 in-game gold.
On my main account I got none of the current legendary summer skins using 30 loot boxes but on my secondary account (which is level thirty-something) I opened only a few loot boxes before I got 2 legendary skins. I guess it’s luck but I don’t really care considering how silly most of those skins are.
1 Like
This event is disappointing all around not only the lootboxes…
HeheI don’t think they even realized how thorougjly they killed it this time. I mean not like there was much to start with since it really wasn’t anything but some mostly US sports skins and Lucioball. But hey, at least a main screen background showing that there was supposed to be something Summer Games going on. Well, that one disappeared for the obnoxious all-star skin advertising rather quickly, leaving no hint in the game at an event even going on, and this weekend they completed the vulgar display of corporate greed by making the note on the laucher disappear as well since there is now a Doomfist statue that needs sold, and the advertising absolutely had to go up.
“Disappointing” would be the very diplomatic version of what I think of Summer Games 2018. 
Next they might lock people out of the game if they don’t buy new skins lol. Really that just might happen at this rate ![:joy:](https://d1kzxbyyijk9k6.cloudfront.net/en/overwatch/images/emoji/twitter/joy.png?v=6" ":joy:")
Same here, currently doing the 2019 lunar event, almost ever box I’ve gotten is a single, maybe double blue if I’m lucky. Any skins I’ve gotten that are lunar were perchased, the two gold items I’ve gotten so far are skins I could get any time of the year. This is a consistent issue though, anytime I get a box it seems that it’s all sprays or voice lines and a profile pic… The extremely rare occasion I get a purple and the near impossible chance it’s a gold, well, my excitement is quickly dashed because it’s nothing, an emote! I will never buy a loot box again, why spend my money on a box of sprays…
1 Like
I opened around 30-40 boxes, and since I’ve got nearly all items, and chances of doublicates is decreased, i only got event stuff in the first 10 boxes or so.
Disclaimer:
(mh i might had more, as I had 2.8k credits and bought first like 24 boxes. To either insta buy or unlock the tracer skin. I wanted it so badly.)
Regardless i didn’t made really that much lvls during the event so the numbers are reasonable.
Bc of that, a legendary will most likely be event related.
Luckily i got tracer in the second box.
(nice save 3k credits :D)
Things like reaper, hanzo, more and more went with the 20-40 boxes.
Yeah ok I got reinhardt and torb in 1 box, lucky me I guess…
Only missing out the zen skin from the event.
Tipp:
If you didn’t get your skin, and couldn’t afford it,
Anniversary event is comming soon, safe up some credits and grind to get them.
Buy the skin at the end of the anniversary event.
I know its frustrating for low levels, as you probably don’t have nearly close to all the items.
But remember we used to get way more doublicates back in the good old days. ![:slight_smile:](https://d1kzxbyyijk9k6.cloudfront.net/en/overwatch/images/emoji/twitter/slight_smile.png?v=6" ":slight_smile:")
1 Like