Hi all,
If you’re gearing primarily off of PVP you will have two main sources of gear: the Weekly Vault and Conquest points. There is an evolving balance in how you manage your Conquest point expenditure to optimise your gear, so I thought I’d provide a simple analysis on this.
Weekly Vault Chance of Upgrade
The following is a very simple statistical analysis of how likely you are to get an upgrade from the vault based on a) the number of items you already acquired and b) the number of vault options you are presented with.
I’m not allowed to post a link so the formatting is odd. Column “# items” represents the number of slots you already have acquired an item for. Columns labelled 1-3 represent the number of options you’re getting from the Vault on any given week. The % tells your your chances of getting an upgrade from the Vault.
|# Items|1|2|3|
|0|100%|100%|100%|
|1|94%|100%|100%|
|2|88%|98%|100%|
|3|81%|96%|99%|
|4|75%|94%|98%|
|5|69%|90%|97%|
|6|63%|86%|95%|
|7|56%|81%|92%|
|8|50%|75%|88%|
|9|44%|68%|82%|
|10|38%|61%|76%|
|11|31%|53%|68%|
|12|25%|44%|58%|
|13|19%|34%|46%|
|14|13%|23%|33%|
|15|6%|12%|18%|
|16|0%|0%|0%|
Assumption: A two-handed weapon is equivalent to 2 item slots
Findings:
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The number of vault options very strongly impacts your chances of finding an upgrade. If possible you should get 3 options each week.
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Your chances of finding an upgrade decrease exponentially with each new item you acquire. After 8-10 items your the likelihood decreases significantly and by 13 items you are more likely not to get an upgrade, even with 3 options.
Should I spend my conquest?
The principle to keep in mind is the more items you buy with Conquest, the less likely you are to get an upgrade from the Vault. Additionally Conquest allows you to target items from the Vendor.
You should also note that the number of options you’re geting from the Vault matters: if you get 3 options then the impact of items already acquired is much lower early on.
How much Conquest you spend, and whether you choose to save it, depends on whether your goal is to get better gear now or to get a full set of gear quicker at the expense of early power.
Findings:
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Spending Conquest in the first few weeks has a low impact on your ability to find upgrades from the Vault.
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Spending Conquest on cheaper items (ring, neck, wrist, trinkets) is advised. This is because you get more value by picking more expensive items from the Vault.
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If your goal is to get a full set of gear as early as possible while still spending some Conquest along the way then you should stop spending Conquest at around 6-9 items acquired. This will depend on which items you are yet to acquire, as it dictates how much Conquest you need. The principle is you want to keep maximising your chances of getting a Vault upgrade each week.
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Although a bit extreme you could choose not to spend any Conquest until you’re ready to complete your gear. By doing this you could potentially get a full set of gear as early as your 9th Vault week (or even 8th with a lot of luck and a 2h from the Vault).
TLDR
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Max your Vault options every week for a significantly accelerated gear upgrade path
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You may not wish to spend Conquest if you want to maximise your chances of getting upgrades from the Vault
