Argus - The shackled Ur'zul

Gameplay Dungeons, Raids and Scenarios
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Greetings my fellow WoW players !

The goal of this post, is to find someone that has already preferably wrote a ticket or knows exactly everything about this topic, because I don’t really like bothering GMs with this kind of stuff through the support system.

The objective of the post is the Shackled Ur’zul mount which drops from Argus the Unmaker in Antorus, the Burning Throne raid. The mount used to be a 100 % guaranteed drop for someone in a 20 player raid after defeating Argus on mythic difficulty. Does someone know with how many % we are dealing with at the current state in BFA ?

Some of you will probably know me, as I am hosting 7 runs each week (which is nothing compared to some other hosts I know, but it doesn’t matter), means I get to deal with 7 of my own chances per week, and 140 chances all total per week since I always take a fully packed raid. All together, I have completed exactly 182 runs across my 7 toons, which is equal to completing it 26 times per character as I have started at the same time on all my toons, which mathematically means that I have now seen over 3600 chances for the mount to drop if I count every single player that has joined me so far. Out of those 3600 chances, I believe I have seen around 10 mounts to drop, which is insanely low if we compare mounts from Archimonde, Blackhand, Garrosh, Deathwing, Ragnaros and so on, which are a STATED 1 % DROP CHANCE.

So the main question of the topic a.k.a. why am I writing this since 182 attempts isn’t really a big number, how exactly does this mount work ? About 2 weeks ago, I saw a comment on Wowhead, stating this : 'The Raid has a 1% chance , after that, the system chooses someone of the 20 players who doesnt have it , and drops it for that player , as it did for me after 30 att 2019.06.19, this is really lucky because if you have to share it with 20 other players,the drop chance is actually less than 1% ,dont give up guys !

If we sum this up, if we take 20 players into a raid that has exactly 1 % to drop the mount, which is later divided by all 20 players, this means we have a 0.05 % chance to obtain this mount. This would not bother me since I have farmed WB mounts which are 1 in 3000, the rocket which is 1 in 4000 and so on, but this design is without a doubt the most stupid system I have seen since I have started playing this game. I will not waste my time furthermore, and will rather wait for the time when I can solo him on my own, and have a shot at my 1 % chance rather at a 0.05 %. The chances for me to obtain this mount before I can actually solo him are so slim anyways, that it’s not worth investing the time for this, atleast that’s my opinion, feel free to do so if you got the time and everything.

So to sum up, that theory mentioned above had me thinking for a long time, as I have obtained every ‘mythic/heroic’ mount from the past expansions that has a 1 % drop chance, but this is just not worth it if you calculate the odds.

Can anyone please confirm how this works, or is the Shackled Ur’zul still a 1 % mount drop like others, just for you, but I and other people joining me are just insanely unlucky. I know what being unlucky means so do not worry about that, both the Stonecore stone drake and ZG panther are the normal 1 % drop chances, and both took more than 500 attempts to get, but that doesn’t bother me as much, because IT IS STATED to be a 1 % chance.

Regards, thanks for your answers.

1 Like
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Blizzard doesn’t tell us how the mount drops work, but if you want my educated guess, here it is: When you kill the boss, a 1% dice roll happens. If you don’t get it, nobody will get the mount. If you do get it, it will randomly distribute the mount to one person in the group who doesn’t already have it.

Where am I getting this from? Well, when the raids are current content and the mounts have 100% drop chances to drop, it works the same way, albeit without the dice roll obviously. And about the exact drop rates: nobody can be certain. Many believe it to be 1%, but it could be less or more. Blizzard does not share details like that. Best we can do is gather statistics, and once we have enough data, we can roughly estimate the drop chance.

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Tbh personal loot probably screwed the drop chance like it did with most raids, I’m pretty sure the drop chance ought to be ~1% like it has been for all mounts previously, but legacy loot doesn’t work in Antorus yet so the odds are probably lower.

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If we gather statistics, atleast mine, this without a doubt supports my, yours and Wowhead poster’s theory.

How my calculation has been made :
-Amount of runs per character : 26
-Amount of mount chances for 20 players during the 26 tries - 520
-Amount of mount chances for 20 players during the 26 tries multiplied by 7 since I have 7 characters I do this with - 3640

Out of those 3640 attempts to loot the mount , I have seen 9, 10 or 11 mounts, I do not remember 100 % correctly because I didn’t plan on doing the statistics, but now that I have started thinking about it, I regret this. For the sake of keeping the numbers correct, let’s say that the mount dropped 10 times.

ATTEMPTS : 3640
Urzuls : 10

% of getting the mount = 10/3640 which equals a 0.00274725274 % of obtaining the mount, which is even less than what the ‘speculated’ drop chance is if we take the 1 % personal loot divided by 20 players, which would equal to a 0.05 % drop chance.

This is extremly unlucky, and if this theory proves to be correct, this means that getting the Shackled Urzul mount (same with the Fiendish Hellfire Core from Guldan - i have this one from Legion so I didn’t really focus on it) makes it amongst the rarest drop chances in WoW, with the exceptions being the Big love rocket, 4 Pandaria world boss mounts and the Infinite Timereaver from TW.

I personally would not mind this, but once again, if this proves to be correct, this system is by far the most stupid thing that has been implemented, and that means that farming this is utterly pointless, because I will rather wait for the chance where I can be able to solo farm this thing, meaning I will be eligible for the WHOLE 1 % chance of getting it.

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Like I said, it’s not 10 mounts out of 3640 attempts. Instead, it would be ten mounts out of 182. Secondly, any sample size under at least hundreds of mounts is too small to draw any conclusions from. 0.05% Sounds about right if you’re doing it with 19 other people who also don’t have the mount and it is a 1% drop rate.

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10 / 3640 =~ 0.002747
0.002747 = 0.2747 %

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Thought something wasn’t right ! Thanks for the correction.

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1% droprate, then split between the raid. Just like every other mount since ever.

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