And in all time from HH was implemented until BfA I ran Headless Horseman on two or three toons every day possible and I never had his mount drop. My son got it first run. RNG is random.
To figure out this we would need data from all the “lucky” raids and see the percentage versus the “unlucky” ones.
Edit: My own assumption is all the posts you’ve seen in total represent a fairly low percentage of total guilds clearing the same content, also not all unlucky guilds/players care enough to post about it.
And overall I also assume DSTs dropspercentage is average 15-16% in total.
Some get it, some don’t, some get few, some get many. 15-16% regardless.
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Oh boy, someone who doesnt understand statistics and probabilities, my favourite.
it’s 50 50 either it drops or it doesn’t and you are just beeing unlucky rip
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To be fair. It’s not unreasonable to believe that Blizzard would stealth nerf stuff. But we don’t have any evidence for that.
Actually that is wrong. you get a 0.833% chance each time you run the raid. So the chance of it dropping does not change. Previous runs do not affect the droprate. It’s always the same.
It’s like a coin doesn’t know what it did previously so it’s always 50/50 no matter if you have 20 heads on the trot.
Okay.
What is the chance of rolling a 1 on a 6 sided die? What is the chance of rolling a 1 20 times in a row? Are those 2 numbers the same?
The chance is always the same, 1 in 6 on each roll.
Same as the chance of rolling any number. People just misunderstand how random works, they think that the odds of rolling 1 twenty times is higher than rolling random numbers, it’s exactly the same.
Lets break this down, because you seem to think you’re smarter than you’re.
Rolling a 1 is 1/6.
Rolling 2 in a row implies that you had rolled a 1 with a 1/6 chance the first time, and also rolled a 1 the second time with a 1/6 chance. That means that the likelihood of rolling 2 ones in a row is 1/6*1/6=1/36
And so on until 20 in a row meaning (1/6)^20. That is not the same chance as a single ones.
Yes the individual rolls have the same chance but getting the same outcome multiple times in a row isn’t the same.
Well lets have a d100 instead, the chance that you roll 1-10 (just to keep it simple for my self) is 10%, rolling the d100 again will not magically increase the chance that you roll 1-10, if you roll it 20 times your chance for each individual roll is still 10% while your likelihood to have experienced the 10% have increased massively, the chance for each roll is still 10% no matter how many times you roll. If the drop chances are even close to work in the intended way then each roll on the table is its own roll. Your probability of rolling the desired roll increases with each roll but the chance of each roll being the desired roll is still the same.
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Yes, and this is the very reason the implemented bad luck protection in retail. So that those very unlucky wouldn’t feel “scammed”.
I think we’re saying the same.
Actually in this game it is the same. If something has a 1 in 6 chance of dropping it will be 1 in 6 every time you run the raid. That will never change no matter how many times you run it. It does not guarantee it will drop after 6 runs.
Oh, so I have a chance of the HHs mount now:) well I’m not going to play Retail anyhow. Let me keep CLassic and my bad luck, wnder if I’ll ever get that … horse!
Well, I wish you good luck anyhow 
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We might be. If we are I might have helped clarify what you meant then ^^
Ah, the good old people who have no idea how probability and chances work. It’s funny that they invoke mathematics hahahahahaha.
Look at all those smooth brains not understanding this simple concept.
Axcually he’s right. He said not getting it after 30 runs is 0,416%. So the chance you failed 30 times in a row. Not the chance of not getting it on your 31st attempt.
People are talking about the probabilities happening in succession, which does change. Not getting a drop 6 times in a row has a very different chance of occuring, than missing the drop on a single encounter.
The chance of seeing two glaives drop in your first three Illidan kills is also less than 1%, and yet this is what happened to my guild on TBC. Meanwhile, there’re guilds that haven’t seen a single glaive dropping for the entirety of TBC (ftr we saw three glaives total just between P4 and P5). That’s just how RNG works.
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