Blizzard are nerfing droprates on purpose

WoW Classic Cataclysm Classic Discussion
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30 naxx runs, 1 ashbringer. Mathematically it’s almost impossible as the droprate should be 100/6= 16,7%
DST, 21 runs, 0 drops. Considering gruul drops 2 non tier items, drop chance should be 15%. Mathematically it’s almost impossible to have such a bad luck
The skull of guldan 15 runs, 0 drop. Same crap basically
HSH and BC trinkets from ZA. 43 runs, saw 2 hsh and 1 bc, while saw around 20 of other usless trinkets to drop.

tldr drop rates on specific items that people hunt for are definitely much lower than they should be.
Blizzard scams players even like that probably trying to keep them subbed for longer

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In my six DST runs, it dropped four times. Its just RNG and it does not mean with 16% you will get it for sure in six runs.

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yeah if something is clearly mess or scam and shoudln’t work like that, loyal fans just call it RNG.

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If the chance to get an Item is 16,7% then the chance to not get it is 83,3%

If we multiply 0,833 with itself 29 times we get

0,833 x 0,833 x 0,833 x 0,833 x 0,833 x 0,833 x 0,833 x 0,833 x 0,833 x 0,833 x 0,833 x 0,833 x 0,833 x 0,833 x 0,833 x 0,833 x 0,833 x 0,833 x 0,833 x 0,833 x 0,833 x 0,833 x 0,833 x 0,833 x 0,833 x 0,833 x 0,833 x 0,833 x 0,833 x 0,833 = 0,00416

So you the chance to not get the Item after 30 runs is 0,416%

There is your mathematical possibility.

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which means drop rate is actually much much lower than it should be as I thought, thanks

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thats not how it works…

also yeah wouldn’t surprise me if they intentionally “rigged” loot to sometimes not drop just to keep people spending more time building their chars and staying subbed longer

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Which is not even all that low tbh. That means roughly one in 240 people farming it will not see it drop in 30 kills. You are just that one in 240, not an insane coincidence. Back in classic our guild didn’t get a single staff of shadow flame until late naxx. Over 50 kills of Nef, most casters had wraithblades and brimstones before it dropped.

I got magical crawdad pet on first wish from first mr. Pinchy both in retail and classic, both of which I cought within a few hours of starting to fish highland schools. What are the odds? And yet I ran 48 Arcatrazes before seeing agi on 2H enchant. According to wowhead it has 20% drop rate from 1 or 2 mobs per instance. Luck is a fickle mistress, is all.

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% is % and there is no luck in it. Then wowhead is wrong and it’s definitely not 20%

Classic loot system is probably broken overall compared to original classic+tbc. Plus these “strange” low droprates of so many core items is definitely not just a bad luck. Blizz is breaking the game for sure

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The probability to get 2 or more with 16.7% drop chance after 30 tries is 97%.

There is no bad luck protection in Classic so every time you do that boss its 16,7% chance no matter how many times you do it. This concept is really hard for the human mind to grasp.

16,7% chance is really low. You could do that raid every lockout for years and the drop chance would still be 16,7% chance. Every time you do the boss there is a much bigger chance that you don’t get the loot. Every time.

Then suddenly you could get 4 in a row the coming weeks and be back on track on the odds. Or you could never get one. The sample size is waaaaaaaay to low to draw any kind of conclusion.

What you need to understand is that if the drop chance is 16,7% the drop chance is 16,7%. It doesn’t increase over time and looking back on the theoretical odds has no actually usage in reality. The drop chance is simply 16,7% chance. Nothing more nothing less.

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Look at that. We agree on something :grin:

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If you feel scammed, you can always vote with your wallet.

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Thats not what that explaination said.

This isnt some sorta rolling systemz where every time you dont get it the next run adds the previous chance onto the next.

16% is the chance on every death it has to drop. Thats extremely low. And with drop chances some will get it daster then others, thats not loyal fans calling it rng.

RNG, is a random number generator. Its quite litterally the defintion of what your describing.

If this sorta thing annoys you i would advise against mmorpgs… ita kinda this games genre entire thing lol

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we got the CA 3 runs in a row, no might of menethil or hungering cold tho :(. It’s just RNG

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ok ok, but 16% is not a low chance
And chances, that blizzard shady “fixed” ashbringer drop rate to 5% or so, so people would sub for longer, buy more gold for gdkp and do other activities to generate money for them, are actually much much higher than not getting it in 29 runs with 16% chance to drop

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But Undurael already explained it to you in primary school terms! Your raid has a 0.416% chance to not see it 30 times in a row. That’s one in 240 raids. It’s extremely bad luck, but by no means anything with astronomical odds.
Coincidentally, Korrakz above has a 0.465% chance of it dropping 3 times in a row. One in 215 raids will have it happen. Both occurances are about just as likely, interesting, eh? Statistics are fun!

They can’t “shady” fix anything. With sample size of all raids in Classic that log, it will become known week 1 that something is off. As it did with DST on week one of TBCC, when it became clear it has 17% drop chance, not under 5% as it was in early TBC retail. And like Morogrim not dropping SCB on first week of P2, or Ahune not dropping the enchant on first midsummer holiday a year ago. Such things become apparant immediately.

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We raided MH since start, killed Archi second lock out and everytime since and have seen tempest of keep only twice. We have seen one skull and one hex. We even tried to swap around raid days to see if we could change the rng but no such luck. Just like I know a guild that didn’t get a single garr binding during the whole of classic and another guild where everyone has TF that wants it, if the RNGeezus is not with you you’re f…

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I am not saying you are wrong. I am saying that nothing extraordinary have happened and that we need more evidence to draw any conclusions.

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Almost every discord who farms it multiple runs per week complains that it’s not being dropped for many weeks as well.
Same goes for guldan trinket and many other stuff.
I guess almost everyone or really many people are “extremely bad lucky” in this game :rofl:

19

Here is a crazy thought. Maybe you only see the unlucky ones complain?

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Ran Illidan over 1 year in in the original TBC, 6 offhands - 0 mainhands.

That´s just how sh!t works mate.

Oh and a guild that killed illidan for the first time got the mainhand (1 year later than us)