I’m done with this event, 3 days of farming all raids/dungeons, Ulduar more than 20 times and getting nothing is not worth it for me. Perhaps for others this event is the next coming of Christ, but for me it’s the same old garbage.
People will say:
“Just run it with a 2nd account with 50 more characters”
“Just do it again for the rest of the month!”
“Just spend 5-10 hours a day farming, it’s a lot of fun!”
No thanks, I’ll just wait for Burning Crusade/WOLTK/Cataclysm/Draenor/Legion/BFA/SL: Remix instead. At least then my time investment leads to something.
I could have finished a bunch of series, played Modded Skyrim (Nolvus), Baldur’s Gate 3 Evil playthrough and other stuff I have lying around instead… but I was somewhat hopeful I would have gotten something out of this event so I went into this being somewhat elated, then I was coping “Nah it will happen next run for sure” until the grim reality hit that it never would.
Nobody forced me to do it, Blizzard did not have a gun against my head, I didn’t ‘resub’ to participate in this event. I had the free time to choose what I could have done, and thought putting some time into this will save me time in the long run. Unfortunately that is not the reality I live in.
Sounds like my reality, I practically always lose rolls against other people, even on ‘easy to get’ high drop rate items it takes me far longer than needs to get it than other people. Even in this thread with people saying they got stuff after a single run in any given dungeon adds to the frustration when you farm like crazy in 3 days time and get zilch.
In my country there’s a saying: “Het geluk is met de dommen” Which roughly translates to: “Fortune favors fools”
Agreed. This event was marketed as some sort of life-changing event. But its the same old. Run same raid/dungeon with 20 characters each week and hope for the best. Doing the same raid over and over again is not fun.
Atleast in Remix we could buy stuff with currency we got over time. That design is much better than this low drop rate design.
The thing is you don’t even know if they increased the drop chances or people are just getting lucky left and right because they’re running it in the first place or running it on dozens of alts.
I already know a bunch of people that barely ever did mount runs, doing mount runs all of the sudden because of this event on multiple characters, so my guess is a lot more people than usual are running these instances than they did the months or even years before.
Every instance has dozens of people standing in front of them, go to ICC or Ulduar at any given time and this will be the case, whereas before you would only see 1-2 people at most.
At some point Blizzard will make this increase permanent, add the mounts to some (Remix) vendor or even the Store/Trading Post. Blizzard could easily sell Invincible mount or any other 0.1% drop mount for 100-250 bucks on the store and people will buy it.
I mean, I understand that statistics is a hard and unintuitive discipline, but the tinfoil theories go a bit too much.
It is not that there is wowhead with its addon and some thousands of users tracking drop rates for every single mount. If blizz announced that it was buffing drop chance and did not change them at all, we would have noticed already.
Yes 5% is still a small percentage for a single person that can have a sample size of 100 runs across some days, but some sites have a sample size orders of magnitude greater than that, and it is impossible to not see the difference there.
Wouldn’t be the first time a company lied to or deceived their customers. Thousands of Wowhead users of which also not everyone farms mounts every week, that suddenly start farming mounts because of this event.
Just like the general population of WoW, of which many people barely ever farm mounts, suddenly start farming mounts when some event is up. Surely you also have some friends or guildmates that hardly if ever farm mounts, that suddenly started farming mounts in the past few days.
What do you think happens if even a single person gets a drop? People start talking on the forums, Twitter, Reddit etc. and through word of mouth you now think these mounts are dropping like crazy. In turn more people start farming mounts, and more mounts start dropping.
Even though it’s the simple matter of many more people throwing themselves and their alts against content and being more talkative about it. Even if Blizzard didn’t change a single thing to the drop rates, people would still think the drop rates increased because it’s talked about with a higher frequency than before as more and more people join in to farm these mounts.
You could easily write up a psychology experiment about this, and surely there have been studies about something similar already written up.
People that use it feed data into wowhead, and they have track of BOTH kills AND mount drops.
So after some thousands kills in the first days, we will know if there is a mount that did not have its drop rate increased. With a sample size of 10k-100k, you cannot confuse a 5% and a 0.5% drop chance.
So your ‘evidence’ is of the kind that does not exist yet?
Invincible’s Reins currently stands at 2054 drops out of 265.492 kills or 0.8% drop rate
Mimiron’s Head currently stands at 24 drops out of 2.442 kills or 1% drop rate, which seems very low numbers? Seems like far too small a number for something that exists for 16 years. So already your method of obtaining ‘evidence’ seems to fall apart.
You also do realize people can do 100 runs and get nothing right? Just a comparison for Invincible’s Reins:
2054/265.492 = 0.7736579633284618% drop rate Add 100 kills and 1 drop
2055/265.592 = 0.7737431850356938% drop rate
Wowhead already rounds these numbers upwards as 0.77% is rounded up to a 0.8%, meaning that you’re unlikely to see any differences in percentages unless this mount reaches 0.851% drop rate.
The differences with a single drop out of 100 is already so low that any person not getting a mount in less than 50 runs afterwards will drop the percentage lower than it initially was.
So basically you will be staring at numbers that won’t change and you will have to create snapshots of your own to see any noteworthy differences.
20th of May 2025: 2047/265243 = 0.7717451544432841% drop rate
265.492 - 265.243 = 249
7/249 = 0.8112449799196786% drop rate between 20th of May and today.
Since it the event started : 21 runs for Blue Proto-drake and nothing. But got Invincible after 6 tries and Life-Binder’s Handmaiden after 3 tries.
RNG is RNG.
No it’s not, you just don’t understand how probability works. You are not guaranteed a mount, there is no bad luck protection so your every attempt is an indepentant event. So just because you didn’t get it on your last attempt doesn’t mean you are more likely to get it on your next attempt.
You provide very small sample size but based on overall data people seem to be getting more mounts now.
Ok, since there has been so many interpretations on how probability works, let me try to explain it very simply.
We’ll assume you try to get a mount (Ember Wyrm in this case) that has 20% chance to drop when you’re running the instance by yourself. This means you have 80% chance of failure.
This essentially means the same as throwing a 5-sided dice and failing to get number five.
If you run the dungeon again, it’s still 80% chance to fail. Like throwing that dice again and again failing to get five.
But the probability of failing the throw twice in a row is not 80%, it’s 64%.
If you manage to fail the throw 12 times in a row, the probability to that is 0.0687%.
Continuing this mathematical fact, after 21 runs you have 99% chance of having that mount and after 31 runs that chance is 99.9%.
Yes, it’s still not 100%. But it’s pretty close and if multiple people fail to get that mount, I have hard time believing this buff is legit.
For the record, if the probability is 5.7 as some claim Invincible to have, the number of runs to reach 99% success rate is 79. So yes, you can indeed fail but that’s not very probable.
Edit: I actually just realized I got more from this even than I thought I would - for the first time after playing mmo’s for 20 years, I stopped to ask myself “Is this fun, am I enjoying this?”.
No. This is not and I am not.
Most people that are complaining haven’t killed Arthas 60, 70 or 80 times this event. They have killed him 10 to 20 times and they don’t realize there is still more chances to miss than to win. But there are other players who are getting invencible in those 10 to 20 tries. And people who are getting in even less, or even first try. It was not Invencible but I was lucky enought to get one of the mounts first try, from Tazevesh. Mount drops are indeed increased. It is not an scam.
And if we follow the maths you should not forget that yes, if you try Arthas 90 times there is a 99% you will get invencible before those 90 tries but… if you pick 100 players who will try until they get the mount in an ideal world…you should expect on average that 1 one of them is that 1% unlucky.
Its still lottery. If if I would say you have now 5% better change of winning million euros in slot game you still would have to play and spend the money and time to win.
The buff works 100% as intented because it is NOT 100% guarantee to get it
