Conquest cap at 500 per week, is it really fair ? A comparison with raiding

Community General Discussion
1

With 500 conquest points per week, a PvPer need ~21 weeks to get a full set of the best gear gear.

How much time a raider would need to get a full set of mythic raiding gear ?

Few things to keep in mind:

  • For each boss in a raid, 1 item drops for 5 players. So, the probability that one player in particular get an item for any boss is 20%.
  • There are 10 bosses in Castle Nathria.
  • Every week, you can use 2 bonus rolls. Each of these have the same probability to drop an item, so 20%.
    Considering there are 10 bosses in Castle Nathria, we can adjust the probability to get an item from any boss using bonus rolls: 20% + 20%*2/10 = 24%.

Now the fun begins. In the following, I will assume that every time you get a loot from a slot where you haven’t got a loot yet, it is an upgrade. Of course, this is very optimistic, in reality when you get a loot like that, there’s only a chance it’s really an upgrade. It’s not a given.

So, when you had 0 loot yet, if an item drop, it’s obviously an upgrade.
If you had 1 loot, there’s 94% chances it’s an upgrade, because there are 16 slots, and one of them is already upgraded (15/16 = 94%)

But in order to get these upgrades, you have to loot an item in the first place, and this happens with probability 20%.
Thus, you have 20% chances per boss to get your first upgrade. You have 19% chances per boss to get your second upgrade. Etc.

How many bosses do you need to kill to get an upgrade, on average ? If the chance to get the upgrade is p, then you need to kill 1/p bosses on average.
That gives 5 bosses on average for the first upgrade. A bit more than 5 for the second. 6 for the third, etc.
If you use bonus loots, it’s not 20% chances, it’s 24%. So you need 4,4,5, etc…

Here is a summary of the data:

item count chance to drop upgrade per boss in mythic avg nb of boss required before upgrade per boss using bonus rolls avg nb of boss kills required
0 100% 20% 5 24% 4
1 94% 19% 5 23% 4
2 88% 18% 6 21% 5
3 81% 16% 6 20% 5
4 75% 15% 7 18% 6
5 69% 14% 7 17% 6
6 63% 13% 8 15% 7
7 56% 11% 9 14% 7
8 50% 10% 10 12% 8
9 44% 9% 11 11% 10
10 38% 8% 13 9% 11
11 31% 6% 16 8% 13
12 25% 5% 20 6% 17
13 19% 4% 27 5% 22
14 13% 3% 40 3% 33
15 6% 1% 80 2% 67
Totals avg nb of boss kills 270 w/ bonus roll 225
avg nb of weeks 27 w/ bonus roll 23

So, a mythic raider, on average, will get a full set of mythic raiding gear within 23 to 27 weeks, depending on how many bonus rolls he used.

1 Like
2

Both groups have weekly vault on top of it.

Idk why they just dont add pvp stat and make pvp gear in pve like -20ilvls or something so both groups arent jealous to eachother and stop crying on forums how is unfair that pvpers have this or pvers this.

3

There are no bonus rolls this tier. And in mythic on 3 people get gear off a boss kill.

4

In that case, raiders get full gear in about 35 weeks.

5

Your analysis misses the mark completely.

First, the small things:

The conquest cap is 550. It takes 20 weeks to get full conquest via this cap from conquest points alone.

Bonus rolls no longer exist. With your math - which I didn’t check thoroughly, but let’s assume you made no big errors - that’s 27 weeks.

The number of slots to fill is either 15 or 14, not 16. Because a lot of the specs use two-handers. And because one slot is going to be used for a legendary. This reduces the time to gear for everyone, but in your math it affects PVE way more than PVP.

Now, the biggies:

There is a vault. It exists for all of raids / M+ / rated PVP. It decreases the time to gear significantly.

Outside of the vault, the pacing of gear between rated PVP and raids / M+ is completely different. In rated PVP you get items at a constant pace, which is slow. In PVE you get chances at loot and the result is that the acquisition is front-loaded like all hell, much more than in PVP.

The vault simply removes the bottom of your table for PVE and since the required kills are concentrated at that bottom, this has a dramatic effect. The vault helps PVP as well, but much less, because of the difference I mentioned (constant pace vs chances, pre-vault).

In the end, gearing via PVE is significantly faster. However, gearing via PVP is in the end going to produce gear that is better for PVP - unless they screw up again. This is why everyone and their dog will gear via PVE and then slowly replace pieces to PVP.

3 Likes
6

These are very good remarks, I’m going to update the data and original post.

7

Idk why all the crying, you get guaranteed points to buy gear in PVP… you don’t have to deal with rng bullcrap that the weapon is gonna drop 2 months in the running for you.
I’d rather have predictable points i can get and buy gear, than rng fiesta.

8

You mention the raid bosses drop 1 item for 5 players, but mythic bosses only drop 3 pieces each, something to take into account (unless I’m reading your post wrong :P).

9

20/3… just below 1 piece of loot per 7 players.

10

Can you not trade raid loot? Which would change your math massively

11

That wouldn’t change it, because I’m looking at how much time it takes to gear the whole raid. So it functions as a single entity. In other words, trading loot is implicit here.

12

I would just like to point-out that your calculation assumes that the raid is cleared week 1, which probably won’t be the case for most guild. But given we don’t have data on how long it will take guilds to clear it, I’m not sure it can be accounted for in your calculation with a sufficient level of accuracy. I’ll leave that to you to handle it as you see fit, (if you choose to include it at all, of course).

13

This topic was automatically closed 30 days after the last reply. New replies are no longer allowed.