If you’d looked at the article that Deadguy linked you’ll see, if you’ve only done 11 Heroic kills you aren’t close enough to the '‘guaranteed drop’. None of the data has been confirmed by Blizzard ofc.
TL;DR Drop Rate
If these plots are related to the legendary and they work how we think they work, these are some of the most important conclusions:
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The Drop Rate on LFR and Normal is low… very low.
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On your 15th Heroic (or higher) Fyrakk kill after the Legendary was available (Week 3), you will guaranteed get 
Fyr’alath the Dreamrender.
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On your 7th Mythic Fyrakk kill, you will guaranteed get Fyr’alath the Dreamrender.
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It’s unclear exactly how Lesser Embers interact with Greater Embers, but if you’ve been collecting they should be stacking up.
We are currently on Week 15 since Amirdrassil came out. RWF ended on Week 2 and the legendary unlocked on Week 3. This means that this week is a Fyrakk kill with up to 12 BLP stacks.
They did however confirm that the highest difficulty you can do (per week) is all chances rolled into one. And that the drop rate in lower difficulties is lower. You can’t add up three tries in one week, it’s still only one attempt.
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Yes, so that 36.6% is what the approximate chance will be on your next heroic kill, and a lot less on normal or LFR. To me that seems far from insane odds since this chance will have been lower on your previous heroic kills.
While Blizzard hasn’t exactly been transparent, they did make it clear on several occasions that the drops are designed so that only the highest difficulty each week has any meaningful impact, in order to not force people to run the raids on all possible difficulties each week.
This is why pretty much nobody bothered to kill Fyrakk on normal or LFR if they were able to do heroic each week instead. The return on investment in doing that is pretty much non existent, and your case is proof of that.
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I think that you dont understand probability. If you do a prior kill its what over 30% still and so on this is by 3 kills you should have it and not counting other difficulties.
If what you say is true then this week is 0% 0% and 36.6%. Which is ridiculous and insane that it drops to literally zero on every difficulty. I can live with that but its not transparent at all.
Even if the basic chance remains on each difficulty and you time it by the counts its way over 100% and i bet 2 cycles might occured. Even if you substract few embers from the previous kills.
I still think this should be confirmed that you wont have ANY chance on the other difficulty or the very base chance
I do understand probability. You’re just confused about how the drop rate works, which is fine, but as a result you believe that the probability has been higher this whole time than it has really been.
Blizzard has communicated as far back as Aberrus that the legendary drop chance gets higher with difficulty, and they did state that it’s only the highest difficulty that counts. This statement would not have made sense if the drop chance was equal on each difficulty because then doing multiple difficulties per week would have actually been significant.
In short they were not transparent about the actual drop rates, but they were transparent with how the drop rates interact between different difficulties, which is the part you misunderstood.
November 28th 2023
Fyr’alath can be obtained with any loot specialization for Death Knights, Paladins, and Warriors by defeating Fyrakk within the heart of Amirdrassil on all difficulties, which will be very rare on Raid Finder difficulty (when available) and significantly increases in drop rate with each difficulty. As with Nasz’uro, completion on higher difficulties will include your chances from all uncompleted lower difficulties that week–this also includes the cumulative increase in chances for future weeks.
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You have a chance for a drop on other difficulties but not as much as heroic and mythic. Like others said read the article and dont over complicate things. Since you only killed it on hc 11 times, you have to do it again a little bit more to get the guaranteed drop. (Lessers dont worth much so I would not count on those)
Lets assume this might be correct and i find it ridiculous that you have zero chance for the rest but whatever. And i dont even know how it works when you start with lfr or normal then what are the odds for hero just the difference ? But ok lets assume you have the highest from hero plus lesser. Just for last 3 kills its nearly 100% 36,6 33 and 28.8. I havent done the 12th but by this logic it should be finished. Plus the rest 9 counts with certain probability… lower but not like irelevant even the 4th in row is 24%.
Doomwalker just dont type if you aint posting something relevant and just putting random nonsens. Its about relevant feedback like deadguy said since we are talking numbers and not your vague calculation with nothing in your comment.
Everybody knows that you get it at one point but the point is the time spent on it and if we are way over 100% cummulative chance. So either you post some numbers etc or go troll somewhere else
The last 3 kills not adding up. Nobody said that. It is increasing,before the guaranteed drop you have 36 percent chance getting it. It is not adding up with the previous 33 and 28 or whatever.
One last thing. Who are you to tell people not to write here? It is a public forum, you can’t comprehend what is written in front of you and you have an attitude toward people who are trying to tell you how things work.
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If you have a 33,3% then you get it one out of 3 chances from statistical point of view so in short 3 tries shoould be enough and 4th is like if your are unlucky and not even adding the chances of the 8 rest. I mean let deadguy talk pls he makes sense
It’s not even close to 100%. You can’t just add those chances up and expect the result to be the overall chance. That’s not how probability works.
If you take those 3 attempts with the odds you’ve given, the probability of you getting it is just under 70% with some napkin math.
You have the odds:
#1: 0.288 (28.8%)
#2: 0.33 (33%)
#3: 0.366 (36.6%)
Probabilities of them not happening would be
#1: 1 - 0.288 = 0.634
#2: 1 - 0.33 = 0.67
#3: 1 - 0.366 = 0.712
So the probability that you don’t loot it is
0.634 * 0.67 * 0.7124 = 0.302, or 30.2%
Probability that you will loot it:
1 - 0.302 = 0.6975 or 69.8%
So put like that, you can see that your chances were good, but nowhere near good enough to guarantee the drop. You can do this calculation for all your attempts if you want. The point is that while you’ve been somewhat unlucky, the odds of not getting the axe in 11 kills are by no means unfathomable.
On average yes. That means that in general, if you have thousands of people farming a 33.3% drop chance item, it will average out to 1 in 3.
But if you only have 1 player doing it exactly 3 times with that drop rate, chance are quite that they will not loot that item in the 3 or even 4 attempts.
Plus you’re talking as if you had a near 30% chance on all of your kills, which you did not. If you look at the table in the wowhead article, you’ll see that the drop chance start of low and ramps up quite slowly. So if that table is to be believed, on most of your kills you had a less than 10% chance.
If you want to do it this way then yes you are correct i just did a simplified version on average since i am trying to illustrate a point. If you do it the other way as you did then its roughly 85% with todays kill and i substracted lesser embers more than it really was. Not even counting them on first 5 kills but whatever. So still the 85% chance under assumption that everything else is zeroand 12 hero runs. I know that 2 times at least i did it on normal with embers from previous heroics since i was not able to get in heroic that week which brings us 14 weekly lockouts and thats additional chance. I dont recall the old counts and how it went exactly so i chose a lower number but we are nearing 90% in reality. If we considee that tww is in 2 months and you still have to sink golds and farm things tenn making any use of this is just a poor galme design. Additionally as i said this is a reference to the confirmed complication with drop by blizzard. I can post it later when i get home. This calculation is like the worst case and it was never confirmed that the rest has zero chance
The typical potato players: they are all fine with the drop rate if they get it fast…
Dont worry botters. Your kind is the same in every game.
But they did make it so that when you kill Heroic Fyrakk it includes your Normal and LFR chances. So there is no need to do them separately. It’s the same chance either way. They didn’t want to force players to have to grind through every difficulty.
Well, the point is that LFR and normal have incredibly low chance to drop the axe, and ramp up the BLP much slower than heroic and mythic do.
The second point is that the chance is only zero if you kill Fyrakk on a lower difficult after already having done it that week on a higher difficulty. Which doesn’t mean that you’ve lost out on some chances, but instead that all of those chances from the lower difficulties got combined into the highest one you’ve done.
Again, this was communicated by Blizzard.
90% doesn’t sound right tho based on the kills you’ve done as most of them will have only been a few % chance at best. From the numbers in the wowhead table, the overall chance from 11 heroics is around 75%. The lesser embers wouldn’t be enough to amount to an extra overall 15%.
But even if it was correct, although quite unlucky, it’s still completely within norm to not loot something with a 90% drop chance and doesn’t justify reporting a “bug” or creating tickets for.
Speaking of tickets, I’d be very careful with Blizzard CS. They’ve been outsourcing a lot lately and the GMs have been regularly giving wrong information to people. In my last ticket I was told that all looted items go to my mailbox, and got welcomed back to WoW despite having and uninterrupted sub for years. So I would take that GM who told you it’s a bug with a grain of salt, because all of the information we have so far points to the conclusion that there’s no bugs involved.
Im not talking about that.
Agree or shut up is how it works here
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Can’t wait to see the babies reactions when they add a legendary in ww
Except, no one has told them not to post.
And if the forums actually all agreed on any one topic, it would be a miracle.
As good as says that. I’ve also been told that plenty of times recently. Especially on topics like this. They want an echo chamber
No that’s my bad, I got confused thinking someone had told the OP not to post here. It was the OP not wanting others input.
Fair. Always happens on topics like this. I’ve been flagged a few times for pointing out this is how mmos work. What the difference between chasing a super op trinket for an entire season vs chasing a Lego with equivalent damage. The only reason they’re crying about this specifically is cos orange.
I can understand some of the complaints, it’s fustrating that fyralath hasn’t dropped on my warrior but to make a new thread every day or few days is tbh ridiculous