The Green Proto Drake didn’t drop out of a total of 68 Mysterious Eggs. We have over 400 players ingame who are all having the same issues.
These 400 players come from 2 Achievement Discords who are very active. We tend to troll about it now that it doesn’t exist and what not.
But how on earth can RNG be this Absurd for this many players?
With a ~3% Droprate and with enough data (as in players) this means that every 33 Eggs, one should loot a drake.
But over 400 players have now 60+ Eggs opened and statistically this doesn’t add up. Yes, one player can be extremely unlucky but if you combine all data it’ll level it out to 1 in 33 attempts.
Anyone experiencing similar issues? We’re now scratching the back of our heads.
With 3% and 60 attempts, it isn’t too unlucky; you only united because of discord exist. On 400 unlucky players will be a thousands lucky or normal players who have already opened it.
At 68 attempts you still have a 0.126 chance of not getting it, or one in eight. Your discord just gathered the 400 people out of the unluckiest 1/8th. It is not some insane odds. Personally I got it after some ~20 eggs and considered myself insanely lucky, it took me well over a year in original Wrath.
I got it on my 2nd Egg on Classic, I don’t have it on retail. It’s RNG that requires zero effort from you, you just check your lottery ticket. You making threads about why you didn’t get your RNG lottery item is just kinda cringe.
Your guild is just ‘one’ set of data out of a big pool of data. The drop% of 12% will even out over all the people who ‘loot’ Algalon.
400 unique players having over 60-68 attempts are each unique datasets. 1 player can be extremely unlucky. 10 players can be extremely unlucky.
400 players on one and the same server seems odd. Given the amount of players who actually open 2 eggs a week, the total amount of players on my server is ‘guesstimated’ at ~9300 players. Based on logdata.
400 / 9300 = 4.3% of the total population which means that if every player on our realm opened an Egg, this 4.3% would be ‘insignifanct’ in the greater datapool, so our bad RNG would be meaningless.
The thing is, how many players of those 9300 are opening 2 eggs a week? We don’t know, my gut feeling here would say something like 1000 at best.
Than all of a sudden we’re facing a 40% incosistency in the RNG-values.
Hence it would be off. But then again, knowing we don’t, cuz we don’t have the total pool of players who consistently opens an egg.
You can only open 1 Mysterious Egg per 7 days. It needs time ‘to hatch’, however with the Item Restore Functionality you can now open 2 Mysterious Eggs per 7 days.
Some are lucky some are unlucky. I dont remember what egg i was on when i got it. But I have just above 10% drop on the baron mount and a friend of mine have less than 1% on it. It is all about RNG. (He got it on his 120th run i think and i got two mounts in 19 runs)
Though at the specified droprate you have about 64% change to get an egg after 33 runs. Fifty runs will get that up to 80%; after that you could consider yourself unlucky I guess.
