Ironhoof Destroyer (Blackhand M) - Potentially another mount broken by personal loot

Gameplay Dungeons, Raids and Scenarios
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Many of us farming this mount now in BfA have noticed unusually high dry streaks and attempt counts, way too high for the expected 1% raid mount drop rate. BFA brought loot changes to WoD content, which many are suspecting caused problems with mount drops in old raids - which was confirmed by one of the recent blue posts about fixing the Azure and Blue Drake drops.

For those unacquainted with mount farming, all raid mounts are considered fairly easy drops. Their estimated chance is 1% and for most people really putting their time into it and using multiple alts, getting those is just a formality. 300-400 attempts is already considered incredibly unlucky for an average 1% raid mount. In this case, people are going 600+ or even 800+ attempts dry without getting the blackhand mount. Myself I am currently at 630 attempts without the drop. These kinds of numbers almost conclusively mean the drop rate is somehow botched / bugged.

Also, just to address the common counter-argument used against posts like these that often gets posted by people not deep in mount farming as an activity.

Yes, I know. However, there is a realistic range of attempts one can expect from a certain drop chance. This is evidenced by years of mount farming by hundreds of people.

Yes…the chance is always 1% for every individual kill, however once you stack attempts, the probability of receiving a positive result rises. Or in other words, it’s more and more probable you will succeed if you keep trying, simply due to the number of attempts. Just to use a simple example: if you roll a dice 10 times, the probability you will get 6 at least once is higher than if you just roll the dice 1 time. It’s bordering on impossibility to do 800 tries on something that has a 1% chance to happen and not have it happened. It shows that something is clearly wrong with the mount.

More data can be seen here, where people post their attempt counts.

About 2 months ago I made a reddit thread, where I got some good feedback, and some bad feedback, but overall nothing really came out of it.
https://www.reddit.com/r/wow/comments/bvebyl/ironhoof_destroyer_mythic_blackhand_mount_drop/

Personally, I am almost certain this mount drop is currently bugged. I’ve farmed almost every single 1% raid mount in the game from wod downwards, and I know what to expect. In this situation, many people are reporting just exuberant amounts of tries that convince me it’s bugged. We need a fix, just like they fixed the Azure/Blue Drakes.

PS. One more thing:

Someone actually getting the mount does not invalidate the claim that there is some kind of a bug. As evidenced by this thread (The forum doesn’t allow me to add a link via edit interface for some reason, it’s on MMO champ achievement section) the person actually got the Azure Drake during the bugged period after about 400+ tries. It’s possible that the bug only prevents the mount to drop when some specific circumstances occur, so it’s still possible to get it in some cases, but not for all mythic boss kills, which should be the case.

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Man, that’s terrible to hear. I am after that mount myself. 630 attempts is terrible.
Time for Blizzard to fix it!

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Not bugged Its just RNG lol.

this is incorrect. You could have 1 attempt or 100,000. your chance of the drop is still 1%. per kill. Theres no ‘bad luck mitigation’ multiplier that i know of (i.e. thresholds, after 100 kills ur % drop chance goes up to 3% etc).

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I’ve addressed your misconception in the thread itself. Feel free to go back and re-read.

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No - I don’t think you can alter maths with an opinion

Your chance of getting the mount is only 1% every time you kill the boss

Doing so 630 times does not improve your chances

It’s like playing the lottery

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I really don’t like repeating myself. I already answered posts such as yours in the OP…

It’s not an opinion. And it’s not altering maths. Try googling probability and chance. Yes, every singular try is 1%, but the probability of you not receiving the positive outcome as you repeat the process is lower and lower.

Also, it’s not about (my) singular case. A lot of people on wowhead are reporting crazy high dry streaks. Then again, the data and evidence is listed in the thread, so I’m just repeating myself for people who don’t bother reading it.

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I can read - it’s just your explanation isn’t math

I came to the conclusion last year that the drop chance is in fact much lower than 1% when you are soloing the content - I have a creeping suspicion that the 1% is for the raid of 25

So that would make the solo chance .04%

The only low drop rate mount I have from farming old raids is experiment 12-b - that’s it

So I sympathise with your plight - I just don’t like your math - and we will just have to agree we have different opinions there

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No, you did not. You stated an OPINION (as Caridris said). The facts still stands that you have a 1% chance per kill. That will never change unless Blizzard alter the drop %

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1% for one kill
9% for a drop within 10 kills (1-0.01^10)
62% within 100 kills (1-0.01^100)
99.8% within 630 kills

Yes, chance after each kill to get it stays the same, but not getting a mount after n kills becomes less and less likely. After 630 kills, its either bugged or op is extremely unlucky (as are the others from the reddit tread linked)

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a 1% chance is a 1% chance no matter the number of kills you carry out. kill 1 has a 1% chance to drop it and kill 100,000 has a 1% chance to drop it. Its simple to understand and its just purely BAD LUCK.

Used to play a game with drop chances on rare items as 1/512. I got 13 of said rare drops in 300 kills. yet it was CONFIRMED by the developers that the drop chance was on average 1/512. i.e. i got stupidly lucky. Other players i knew went dry for 2k kills. i.e. he got stupidly unlucky. ITS RNG.

Unless you can prove and link to source that blizzard has implemented bad luck mitigation (e.g. after 100 kills chance goes to 5% or whatever).

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You’re right, no bad luck protection. The chance to get it per kill is 1% (and constant, the 100th kill is still 1%), but the chance to get it within 100 kills (as in, kill the boss 100x, and loot him) is 62% on total (not per time looting, but for 100 times looting in total).

Not saying that the chance increases, but not getting it in 500+ kills is extremely unlikely, let alone multiple people not getting it within those kills.

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I don’t believe the drop rate is broken. If nobody received the mount for months, it would be, but then I believe it would be more widely reported about. Imagine this. You have ten thousand people farming the mount. Using the math above, 99.8% of the people will receive their mounts by their 630rd kill. However, the remaining 0.2% will not have received their mounts, and with such a big sample size, that’s still 50 people. Now those 50 people are going to make noise and say that the drop rates are bugged, while in reality they’re just the unlucky ones. You also have people who exaggerate their actual pull count, which is quite common.

PS. I don’t take any responsibility for failing math here, because I used the above comments as reference. Besides, you all should still get the point. A few unlucky people do not prove that the mount has been bugged. You need a majority before you can claim that.

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Green guldan is also broken, extreamly low drop in personal, last legacy mount i need but cba with bugged things.

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