Isn't 5% a bit low as drop rate for items in M+?

Community General Discussion
1

Hi

If I run a M+, 2 people get a drop so it’s 40% for each player, then the odds to have the single drop I need is 1 out of 7 or 8 of my loottable for that dungeon, that means that I have around 5% chance to drop the item I need for each run, I know that is low cause you can do multiple times per week, but it’s 5% a bit too low?

maybe let me buy equip with tokens dropped in M+?

2

to help you out here. statistically it may seem like a 40% chance but it always will only be a 20% chance to get loot for while yes there are 2 drops the chance is equal for everyone. and after that sadly it is not as straightforward beyond that as dividing the chance you already have by the amount of drops. the droprate of the items themselves comes into play if you get a loot drop

1 Like
3

Then people will just spam one dung( mists) and buy all gear .

U could have specific token for specific dung, but if u have to run one dung 20-50 times it might also just drop anyway

4

then lower the specific tokens needed, let’s say 10/15 runs and you can buy the item or higher keys higher tokens number, with the actual droprate you need to do 45 times a specific dungeon to reach a 90% chance to drop it.

5

maybe something to do is make the great vault mythic+ part reward said token, with 1 slot being 1 token 2 slots 2 tokens and 3 slots 3 tokens. then make the stuff cost 2 tokens and every other week people can buy a second item.
personally i am more a fan of the drop system (i hate myself go figure XD) but i see nowadays people would much prefer it like this, and it stil being somewhat gated allows the m+ scene to still survive for atleast half the season potentially

6

I don’t understand what you mean… if there are 2 drops for 5 people and the same person can’t have 2 drops, it’s simply 40% chance to have a drop for each person, then it’s 14% chance to drop that specific item, so 5% to drop that specific item in a run

7

the 40% is correct in a sense yes, however that does make it a 200% drop chance wich technically correct as 2 items drop. however if you want to calculate the maths it will only come out correctly if you figure it from the intended 100% for otherwise you have to adjust all numbers to the 200% first.

let’s say an item has a 1.5% droprate excluding the chance for you to get loot in the first place.

  1. you fight for the drop
  2. you win an item you got the 20% chance.
  3. what sadly now happens is that the 1.5% no attaches to the 20% thus the item in question has a 1.5% on 20% to drop (.3% btw)
    you could indeed do this math with the 40% but you would have to double all other percentages also used in question and for this one it is easy, but for drop percentages like 0.36 and stuff it might become more tiresome.

tldr all this to say that 5% you were talking about seems pretty high compared to the droprates there actually are per item

8

the speficic item has around 11/14% droprate after you won the 2/5 chance, not 1.5%

9

The 1.5% was just an example. And sadly we have to count it as 2 1/5 chances because you cant get both and you imidiatly leave the other drop chance once you get one (thus the chances and drops happen dependent on but apart from eachother) it is a common misconception that because you have 2 20% chance loot you get 40% but sadly it is a bit off with how it works

10

5 players roll, and the top 2 rolls get an item from their loottable of that dungeon.
It is 40%. We do not need to make it more complicated.

11

We dont make it more complicated. We just have to use thw maths thats are given to us wich is evidently 2 20% not 40%. I wish it were easier but i dont make these rules blizzard did

12

2x 20% is wildly different from 40%. And it is 40%.
2x 20% means 1: people throw 2 times. and 2: 1 player can get 2 items.

13

Like you said friend, 2 rolls. In wvery other paet in the game it is shown that every piece dropped is rolled for on a differwnt number (legacy dungeon, legacy raid normal raid normal dungeons) so the same is for m+. A 1% drop chance in a legacy raid with 5 drops is 5x 1% drop chance not a 5% drop chance. This has been widely accepted for pretty much its entire existence and i am having difficulties seeing why it is not accepted for m+.

14

Yes. In that content it works different.
In M+ the first 2 items are on 1 roll so the loot lands on 2 different players.

We can confirm this by bonus items received above a certain keylevel. There is an extra roll where 1 player can get 2 items because he can win the normal roll and win the bonus roll.

In M+ the normal first 2 loot items are never for the same player. So it can not be 2x 20%.

15

Could you explain why they would be different? If i am wrong i would love to admit i was spreading misinformation but all the arguments against me are the same (its 40% because 2 drops). There is no indicator thats its different and since one person cant get both (like lfr group loot) it is a good indicator that they are both rolled on seperately and if you win one you automatically drop out of the other roll (thus always only being 20% chance) the 40% chance is just a common misconception

Edit: give me a second please i didnt see the other yet it was posted while typing this.

16

Even when it are 2 rolls and the first winner is not rolling twice, the 2nd roll is not 20% (25%).

Overall 2 different players get an item in a group of 5. That is 40% chance. It doesn’t even matter we roll once or twice (with taken the first winner out).

17

The problem with the 40% stil remains, as it are still 2 100% droprates and not 1 200% droprate. We cant add the 2 20% up with eachother because its not from the same roll. The rolls happen concurrently and the only way your odds go up in one of the rolls is if the other one was won by the same person at first.

18

I am not sure what is difficult about 2 out of 5 players get 100% an item of their loottable. It is 40%.
When it are 2 rolls it isn’t 20% + 20%. It is 20% + 25%.

Calculation with 2 rolls;
Not getting 1 win out of 2 rolls = (1-1/5)(1-1/4) = 0.6 = 60%
Which means 40% chance you win.

I really wonder what misconception of the 40% you talk about.

1 Like
19

For one, items do not have the same chance to drop. But even if we assume they do then that’s 14.28% chance if you have already been selected for an item, which is… ~5.7%.

Yes, it is slow. It’s intentional to keep you playing and playing.

Best solution? Do not go for BiS. Go for 2nd BiS. Or for 3rd. Unless you go for World top 100 rankings you don’t need the best of the best equipment. People massively overestimate the difference in performance between an S-tier and a B-tier item.

20

I remember when folk played the game rather than the spreadsheets

Simpler times