Mythic+ Team Composition Statistics in S3 (Is there anything but destruction warlocks ?)

Community General Discussion
1

I said yesterday I’d so some additional analysis about team compositions in mythic+. So, I’ve queried Blizzard API to get the team composition of every M+ dungeon in their leaderboards (for each connected realm, for each week during the month of June.

I know S3 lasted longer than June, but trust me… Just in June, there are 1 836 879 mythic+ runs, timed or not. That’s a lot of data. And querying that stuff from blizzard api takes time.

Right now, I have a huge csv file (160 MB), with the following columns : date, dungeon, keystone_level, chests, m0, m1, m2, m3, m4.

  • date, dungeon and keystone_level are self-explanatory, I think.
  • chests correspond to how the keystone was finished. It ranges from 0 to 3, 0 is completed but not timed. 1 and above is timed. 2 is +2, 3 is +3.
  • m0 to m4 corresponds to the spec names of team members 0 to 4. (yes arrays starts at 0).

Now, let’s have some fun.

How many keys… ?

  • 28+, timed or not : 9347
  • 28+, timed or not, without a warlock : 124
  • 28+, timed or not, without a warlock nor a survival : 25
  • 28+, timed or not, without a destruction or a windwalker : 21
  • 28+, timed or not, without destruction, survival or windwalker : 0
  • 27+, timed or not, without destruction, survival or windwalker : 8
  • 26+, timed or not, without destruction, with affliction : 0
  • 26+, timed or not, without destruction or Survival, with shadow : 0
  • 27+, timed or not, without destruction, with feral : 1
    This one : 2022-06-01 Mists of Tirna Scithe 27 0 Feral Restoration Subtlety Arcane Blood
    Comparatively, if you look at 27+ without destruction, with fury, you get 176 runs. You get 576 runs without destruction but with fury at 26+

Feel free to ask more.

+28, timed or not, without Destruction or Survival :

date dungeon keystone_level chests m0 m1 m2 m3 m4
29/06/2022 Spires of Ascension 28 1 Fury Restoration Windwalker Subtlety Blood
29/06/2022 Theater of Pain 29 0 Windwalker Blood Fury Restoration Assassination
29/06/2022 Tazavesh: Soleahs Gambit 28 0 Blood Fury Subtlety Restoration Windwalker
29/06/2022 Spires of Ascension 28 1 Fury Restoration Windwalker Subtlety Blood
29/06/2022 Theater of Pain 29 0 Windwalker Blood Fury Restoration Assassination
29/06/2022 Tazavesh: Soleahs Gambit 28 0 Blood Fury Subtlety Restoration Windwalker
29/06/2022 Spires of Ascension 28 1 Fury Restoration Windwalker Subtlety Blood
29/06/2022 Theater of Pain 29 0 Windwalker Blood Fury Restoration Assassination
29/06/2022 Tazavesh: Soleahs Gambit 28 0 Blood Fury Subtlety Restoration Windwalker
29/06/2022 Spires of Ascension 28 1 Fury Restoration Blood Subtlety Windwalker
29/06/2022 Theater of Pain 29 0 Windwalker Blood Assassination Restoration Fury
29/06/2022 Tazavesh: Soleahs Gambit 28 0 Blood Fury Windwalker Restoration Subtlety
22/06/2022 Halls of Atonement 28 1 Protection Outlaw Windwalker Assassination Restoration
22/06/2022 Halls of Atonement 28 1 Protection Outlaw Assassination Windwalker Restoration
22/06/2022 Halls of Atonement 28 1 Windwalker Assassination Outlaw Protection Restoration
22/06/2022 Halls of Atonement 28 1 Restoration Protection Outlaw Assassination Windwalker
15/06/2022 The Necrotic Wake 28 1 Blood Windwalker Outlaw Restoration Windwalker
08/06/2022 Plaguefall 28 1 Windwalker Blood Subtlety Restoration Fury
08/06/2022 Plaguefall 28 1 Subtlety Restoration Fury Blood Windwalker
08/06/2022 Plaguefall 28 1 Restoration Fury Blood Windwalker Subtlety
08/06/2022 Plaguefall 28 1 Subtlety Windwalker Blood Fury Restoration
01/06/2022 Plaguefall 28 0 Vengeance Windwalker Fire Fury Restoration
01/06/2022 Plaguefall 28 0 Vengeance Windwalker Fire Restoration Fury
01/06/2022 Plaguefall 28 0 Restoration Vengeance Windwalker Fire Fury
01/06/2022 Plaguefall 28 0 Fury Restoration Fire Windwalker Vengeance

+28, timed or not, without Destruction or Windwalker :

date dungeon keystone_level chests m0 m1 m2 m3 m4
15/06/2022 The Necrotic Wake 29 1 Holy Survival Subtlety Fury Blood
15/06/2022 Spires of Ascension 28 1 Subtlety Survival Fury Blood Holy
15/06/2022 Tazavesh: Soleahs Gambit 28 1 Subtlety Holy Blood Survival Fury
15/06/2022 Tazavesh: Streets of Wonder 29 1 Survival Holy Blood Assassination Fury
15/06/2022 The Necrotic Wake 29 1 Survival Holy Blood Subtlety Fury
15/06/2022 Spires of Ascension 28 1 Blood Holy Fury Survival Subtlety
15/06/2022 Tazavesh: Soleahs Gambit 28 1 Fury Subtlety Holy Blood Survival
15/06/2022 Tazavesh: Streets of Wonder 29 1 Blood Assassination Fury Holy Survival
15/06/2022 Spires of Ascension 28 1 Subtlety Survival Fury Blood Holy
15/06/2022 Tazavesh: Streets of Wonder 29 1 Blood Survival Holy Fury Assassination
15/06/2022 The Necrotic Wake 29 1 Subtlety Holy Survival Fury Blood
15/06/2022 Spires of Ascension 28 1 Blood Holy Fury Survival Subtlety
15/06/2022 Tazavesh: Soleahs Gambit 28 1 Subtlety Fury Holy Blood Survival
15/06/2022 Tazavesh: Streets of Wonder 29 1 Survival Holy Fury Assassination Blood
15/06/2022 The Necrotic Wake 29 1 Fury Subtlety Blood Holy Survival
15/06/2022 Tazavesh: Soleahs Gambit 28 1 Subtlety Holy Fury Survival Blood
01/06/2022 Tazavesh: Soleahs Gambit 28 1 Holy Survival Subtlety Blood Survival
01/06/2022 Tazavesh: Soleahs Gambit 28 1 Survival Survival Blood Subtlety Holy
01/06/2022 Tazavesh: Soleahs Gambit 28 1 Holy Survival Blood Survival Subtlety
01/06/2022 Tazavesh: Soleahs Gambit 28 1 Subtlety Holy Blood Survival Survival
01/06/2022 Tazavesh: Soleahs Gambit 28 1 Survival Blood Survival Holy Subtlety

+27, timed or not, no Destruction, no Survival, no Windwalker :

date dungeon keystone_level chests m0 m1 m2 m3 m4
22/06/2022 Spires of Ascension 27 1 Brewmaster Fury Demonology Subtlety Restoration
22/06/2022 Spires of Ascension 27 1 Brewmaster Fury Restoration Subtlety Demonology
22/06/2022 Spires of Ascension 27 1 Fury Restoration Subtlety Demonology Brewmaster
08/06/2022 The Necrotic Wake 27 1 Subtlety Restoration Arms Demonology Blood
08/06/2022 The Necrotic Wake 27 1 Subtlety Restoration Blood Demonology Arms
08/06/2022 The Necrotic Wake 27 1 Subtlety Restoration Blood Demonology Arms
08/06/2022 The Necrotic Wake 27 1 Subtlety Restoration Blood Arms Demonology
01/06/2022 Mists of Tirna Scithe 27 0 Feral Restoration Subtlety Arcane Blood
2 Likes
2

Another interesting stuff : how well would you perform if you ran any +25 without a particular spec ?

First, the baseline : at +25, there are about 81.868% chances to time (+1,+2 or +3).
And here is what our chances would be if we were to run a key at +25 without a specific spec :

without spec +1 +2 +3
Destruction 77.306% 6.785% 0.000%
Survival 79.389% 3.583% 0.000%
Blood 81.056% 5.309% 0.000%
Windwalker 81.267% 5.480% 0.000%
Holy 81.437% 4.760% 0.000%
Brewmaster 81.507% 5.451% 0.000%
Fire 81.543% 5.520% 0.000%
Subtlety 81.679% 5.462% 0.000%
Havoc 81.826% 5.691% 0.000%
Arms 81.835% 5.548% 0.000%
Affliction 81.865% 5.571% 0.000%
AVERAGE BASELINE 81.868% 5.568% 0.000%
Discipline 81.868% 5.581% 0.000%
Shadow 81.873% 5.607% 0.000%
Unholy 81.886% 5.573% 0.000%
Assassination 81.894% 5.566% 0.000%
Arcane 81.905% 5.575% 0.000%
Mistweaver 81.923% 5.604% 0.000%
Beast Mastery 81.938% 5.581% 0.000%
Balance 81.943% 5.609% 0.000%
Demonology 81.954% 5.601% 0.000%
Enhancement 81.956% 5.631% 0.000%
Fury 81.968% 5.467% 0.000%
Outlaw 81.978% 5.672% 0.000%
Feral 81.994% 5.599% 0.000%
Retribution 82.035% 5.595% 0.000%
Protection 82.053% 5.744% 0.000%
Elemental 82.116% 5.604% 0.000%
Vengeance 82.126% 5.554% 0.000%
Guardian 82.195% 5.650% 0.000%
Marksmanship 82.218% 5.641% 0.000%
Frost 82.229% 5.743% 0.000%
Restoration 82.310% 6.548% 0.000%

In that table, anything below the average baseline leads to less chances to time.

edit: rewrote the table to show the chances difference if you run a +25 with a specific spec, as it’s more readable. Also sorted the table on the +2 column because there’s something funny :

with spec +1 +2 +3
Survival 2.480% 1.984% 0.000%
Holy 0.431% 0.808% 0.000%
Blood 0.812% 0.258% 0.000%
Brewmaster 0.362% 0.116% 0.000%
Subtlety 0.189% 0.105% 0.000%
Fury -0.099% 0.101% 0.000%
Windwalker 0.601% 0.088% 0.000%
Fire 0.325% 0.047% 0.000%
Arms 0.033% 0.019% 0.000%
Vengeance -0.257% 0.014% 0.000%
Assassination -0.025% 0.002% 0.000%
AVERAGE BASELINE 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
Affliction 0.003% -0.004% 0.000%
Unholy -0.017% -0.006% 0.000%
Arcane -0.037% -0.008% 0.000%
Beast Mastery -0.069% -0.014% 0.000%
Discipline 0.000% -0.014% 0.000%
Retribution -0.167% -0.028% 0.000%
Feral -0.126% -0.032% 0.000%
Demonology -0.086% -0.033% 0.000%
Mistweaver -0.055% -0.036% 0.000%
Elemental -0.248% -0.037% 0.000%
Shadow -0.004% -0.039% 0.000%
Balance -0.075% -0.041% 0.000%
Enhancement -0.087% -0.063% 0.000%
Marksmanship -0.350% -0.073% 0.000%
Guardian -0.326% -0.082% 0.000%
Outlaw -0.110% -0.105% 0.000%
Havoc 0.043% -0.124% 0.000%
Frost -0.361% -0.176% 0.000%
Protection -0.185% -0.176% 0.000%
Restoration -0.442% -0.981% 0.000%
Destruction 4.562% -1.218% 0.000%

If you’re looking for a maximized chance to get a +1, get a destruction warlock, with +4.562% increased chances.
If you’re looking for a maximized chance to get a +2, avoid destruction warlocks like pest , with 1.218% decreased chances.

You can also notice that everything in the +1 column is less than 1% difference (in absolute value), except for Destruction (4.562%) and Survival (2.480%).

1 Like
3

Still the elite, I guess…

4

Would you like stats at +15 ?

Here are the chances difference to time +15 if your bring a particular spec

spec +1 +2 +3
Survival 1.462% 4.294% 3.124%
Windwalker 0.552% 1.525% 0.703%
Destruction 0.366% 0.835% 0.067%
Vengeance 0.255% 0.987% 0.918%
Outlaw 0.234% 0.619% 0.104%
Brewmaster 0.168% 0.326% 0.023%
Subtlety 0.110% 0.334% 0.344%
Holy 0.110% 0.171% 0.115%
Restoration 0.105% 0.495% 0.279%
Fury 0.098% 0.239% 0.172%
Blood 0.084% 0.108% -0.073%
Fire 0.040% 0.140% 0.129%
Discipline 0.015% 0.025% -0.012%
AVERAGE BASELINE 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
Affliction -0.011% -0.072% -0.042%
Arms -0.016% -0.050% -0.031%
Enhancement -0.021% -0.070% -0.158%
Arcane -0.024% -0.053% -0.056%
Assassination -0.042% -0.109% -0.057%
Feral -0.046% -0.210% -0.123%
Havoc -0.053% -0.137% -0.090%
Demonology -0.059% -0.193% -0.170%
Unholy -0.078% -0.221% -0.119%
Shadow -0.130% -0.376% -0.192%
Mistweaver -0.137% -0.397% -0.233%
Marksmanship -0.147% -0.379% -0.343%
Elemental -0.173% -0.609% -0.331%
Guardian -0.214% -0.499% -0.224%
Balance -0.263% -0.695% -0.344%
Frost -0.320% -1.140% -0.838%
Retribution -0.329% -0.770% -0.440%
Protection -0.332% -1.059% -0.749%
Beast Mastery -0.619% -1.844% -1.113%
1 Like
5

Sorry, but I’ve reported you for Spam!

These posts hurt my eyes! I don’t come on the forums for this kind of trash!

Maybe post this in some community for the 0.01% of players who care about anything over +20.

6

Honestly, I by now know what I got to know about M+. There’s a gatekeeping system behind it that favours certain specs and since shadowlands even certain covenant choices (meaningful choice but all covenants equal blah blah). If you refuse to be dictated which spec / covenant to roll with because you’d prefer playing your character as you see fit, you can expect toxic comments all over the place in pugs given you get added to one and useless efforts to reach the peak. But thanks for confirming it.

7

This topic was automatically closed 30 days after the last reply. New replies are no longer allowed.