Pre-patch + release speculation [LONG POST]

Community General Discussion
1

Let’s start with data from previous expansions that can hint at when release is based on duration of pre-release events.

The Burning Crusade
Alpha + Beta: 150 days
Beta: 96 days
Prepatch: 42 days

Wrath of the Lich King
Alpha + Beta: 218 days
Beta: 119 days
Prepatch: 30 days

Cataclysm
Alpha + Beta: 218 days
Beta: 160 days
Prepatch: 56 days

Mists of Pandaria
Alpha + Beta: 188 days
Beta: 188 days (no alpha)
Prepatch: 28 days

Warlords of Draenor
Alpha + Beta: 162 days
Beta: 139 days
Prepatch: 30 days
Release before deadline: 37 days

Legion
Alpha + Beta: 281 days
Beta: ?
Prepatch: 42 days
Release before deadline: 22 days

Battle for Azeroth
Alpha + Beta: 188 days
Beta: 112 days
Prepatch: 29 days
Release before deadline: 38 days

Average
Alpha + Beta: 200 days
Beta: 136 days
Prepatch: 37 days
Release before deadline: 32 days

Shadowlands
Alpha started: April 4th
Beta started: July 15th
Deadline: December 31st

Since some expansions have only duration of combined Alpha + Beta, that is more reliable, so let’s use that. Based on 200 days of Alpha + Beta, Shadowlands would release October 26th.

We can also take the average days released before deadline, as they would set deadline based on when they expect release, plus some margin. Using this Shadowlands would release November 28th.

So, based on just averages, we have a probable release date span of October 26th - November 28th.

Another piece of data is that there was a new broom model added, likely used for Hallow’s End event starting on October 18th. If we assume this will be part of pre-patch, we can expect pre-patch to hit latest on the Wednesday before, October 14th.

Another tidbit is that the first week with no new corruption resistance to gain will start September 16th, thus it is unlikely pre-patch would hit before that.

Pre-patch September 16th - October 14th maybe?

Then if we use this along with the usual pre-patch duration, release would be October 22nd - November 19th.

This narrows our release date span down to October 26th - November 19th.

However, I am going to guess we will have some time to play with maximum corruption before pre-patch, about a month or so. And we also know the releases will be on a Wednesday in EU.

Thus, my guesses are:
Pre-patch: October 7th
Release: November 11th

3 Likes
2

I think the expansion is going to release at the very end of november, so me guess is : November 25th expansion, October 28th pre patch if we take the 30 days rule.
I think they are just taking all the available time.

I certainly won’t mind an earlier expansion than I expect or at least the prepatch to hit earlier. I won’t mind prepatch to last ~60 days like in Cata. I want to enjoy a slow paced game for some time, no corruption, essences.

3

I think it will be around when we would have Blizzcon as it is canceled due to the pandemic. So your timeline is great, but also falls around Thanksgiving and they probably will not have staff working for that. So the next guess would be October as your first guess or after Christmas. If we do not see it by October then I would say January 2021.

4

I was hoping for a long prepatch period as they scrapped the last content they were going to add. Sort of running out of things I feel like doing…thinking of taking a break until prepatch

1 Like
5

I agee not having 8.3.5 is leaving us with a very long content drought, if course no one could have predicted the pandemic but I would rather Blizzard work long and hard on Shadowlands and get things right instead of rushing out an expansion like they did with BFA.

I have personally gone back and worked on some old achievements, expansion by expansion. Decided to take a trip back to Northrend and am working on that area for achievements. You could do the same or try leveling up an alt you forgot about.

6

It will be released when it is deemed ready by Blizzard.

7

Thanksgiving is a factor to consider, it’s on the 26th so I’m not expecting releases by then. Looking at other games there’s a gap between November 19th and December 3rd, a release dead zone. November 25th is going to be a no but 11th isn’t affected by it.

8

It’s going to release much later than people think.
I wouldn’t be surprised by a december release.

9

Well, let’s look at what dates are options.

Pre-patch:
[Corruption resistance gain finishes]
16/9, 23/9, 30/9, 7/10, 14/10
[Hallow’s End begins]

Release:
7/10 (shorter testing period than BFA)
14/10 (same testing period as BFA)
21/10 (below average testing period)
28/10 (roughly average testing period)
4/11, 11/11, 18/11
[Thanksgiving dead zone]
9/12 (as close to the deadline as Legion)
16/12 (closest to the deadline it’s ever been)
[Fall ends]

If it’s December they would be cutting it unusually close, and it would be a longer (Cataclysm level or even record long) pre-patch. Which isn’t impossible, especially with COVID being a factor, but not something I’m counting on.

10

This sounds fairly reasonable but I think maybe a week later so prepatch starts 13/14th of October and launch is 17th/18th of November

11

With the fiasco that was BFA testing they probably want to give themselves some breathing room this time.

So i’d expect pre-patch at virtual Blizzcon, and release early mid december

12

Virtual BlizzCon is in 2021, so that’s gonna involve some time travel.

13

But it’s not like you cannot work towards something in the game. Just do some old content rewards you’re interested in.

14

I’m at 95 exalted reputations! :upside_down_face:

15

But have you done all the secrets? What about pets? Mounts? Hidden transmogs?

16

What? I thought they said they were doing a virtual blizzcon for this year since the real thing was canceled.

17

Yes, early 2021, so you can remove that from your calculations.

18

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