Update: day 25 i finally got it
so Im in third week now with no show on that sword. ( lets see if we can make it a month or more )
how long have you gone with a no show ?
seems its mainly that cloth belt that wants to drop. seen that thing at least 10 times
sure the webs says that its a 25% chance to drop, but 25% of what ?
25% of zero is still zero, so not sure if that is a true estimate, or is that sword secretly the Unicorn of UP hc 
Atleast you can farm it 7 times a week. I did weekly GruulĀ“s in TBC and only saw the Tank shield twice. Ofc never won it though.
Dont complain about heroic loot is all im saying. Could be worse.
i would not say im complaining, if that was how it came off then that was not the intent, im just amuseing over how it seems that its only one main item that is dropping from that one dungeon everytime im in there ^^
but yes, im glad im not at a raid blockade ones a weeks with a much higher loot table is no fun at all
% Is percent aka per 100, 25% means 25 per 100.
The odds of not having a 25% drop after 14 days farming it once per day: (3/4)^14 = 1.78%
21 days: 0.24%
Unlucky.
I do UP Hc Everyday for mount chance.
Currently up at 89 runs.
The past 10 days i have seen sword 4-6 times canāt remember exactly.
But there has been times with no sword for at least 8 days
Maybe I should start offering that belt as a almost garantie drop for casters and charge for it xD
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I have a ret paladin friend who tried to get the 2-handed axe from Halls of Lightning. It took him 20ish attempts, so about three weeks worth of heroics.
I myself had been trying to get a 2-handed axe or polearm from raids for my arms warrior. Got one after 13 weeks of raiding, during which time I saw 0 Betrayers, 0 Cryptfiend Bites, 1 Deathbite (which I lost), and 0 Black Ices.
Sometimes the game just doesnāt like you 
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Awww and here i am paying it money to be nice to me. guess I need to pay more to the microtransaction greed goblin. xD ( seriusly tho , im glad we dont have it like that )
and reguarding weapons as drop, they do seem to be much more rare then armor. only weapons i somewhat offen see is the 1h mace from nexus hc
I feel you.
That sword dropped for me after 11-13 runs.
I donāt personally trust any calculations of drop rates, of course it is based on luck so it can be high or extremely low.
Yeah, rng is funā¦ got sinisters revenge second naxx run
Your Math is wrong
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
9 naxx10 for 213 axe and got it
13 naxy25 for 226 axe and did not Drop. Aaaand the season is over now.
I should have bought the pvp axe once I had the Points for itā¦
My math is 100% correct, that is how you calculate the odds of something not happening after x amount of tries.
I know every attempt he does his chances never increased, itās still 1/4. Maybe you misunderstood my previous post.
No. Its not.
Tbf three weeks isnāt long. Out of every Gruul run I did in TBC I only ever seen DST drop once, and I never got two tier pieces from other raids because they just didnāt drop. It is just how it goes.
All drop rates arenāt really accurate at all, so you canāt go by any website.
When Naxx released in Classic, it took my guild 3 resets to get to 4hm. 0 Corrupted Ashbringers throughout all of Classic.
I didnāt get it until 3 weeks before WoTLK pre-patch. RNG is RNG.
Took me 9 years to get Anzu. have fun farming!
There are some people still trying to get āRecipe: Stormchopsā from the dailiesā¦
@Shaxed: Maybe you want to show us your Math so we can tell you where you are wrong ? You can Math right ?
I went 12 runs without a sword and saw 3 mounts drop in those runs, was really weird tbh 
Took me somewhere between 60 and 70 consecutive days to get my Meteorite Whetstone from UP.
I got the Sword and Shield in the first week at 70, I never used to Sword because I played Arms/Prot hybrid with an Axe instead. Meanwhile, still only 1 Betrayer and no Last Laugh, been clearing every week since week 1.
The big question is why arenāt you aiming for raid drops instead, after 3 weeks itās time to move on.
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