Achievement trackers, I said above. The proportion of all accounts who have the achievement for +2 is 88%, and that percentage is against all accounts including those with no max-level characters. The number was stable in all expansions ever since the achievement appeared.
You didnât seem to understand what I said. The achievment is stable for the amount of accounts because you canât get a new one⌠If you did a +2 in Legion you wonât get the achievment in BFA or SL, thatâs why itâs stayed the same because people canât get it again. Thatâs why arguing for this achievment = active players is bad
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That, plus there are tons of ultracasuals that donât yet have a max level toon.
I understood what you said. The numbers staying stable mean that new players are doing M+ at about the same rate as before. Thatâs reasonable ground to assume that M+ in general has about the same popularity as before.
But you canât use the achievment to back that statement up though. Letâs just for argument sake nobody new joined wow since legion, the achievment % would stay the same even if not a single player did any m+ in all of BFA or SL because the achievment is still the same.
But itâs not! If I didnât do a single M+ in SL I would still show up for the achievment and youâd think âoh heâs doing m+â just because you look at an achievment that was introduced in legion
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The people who have done m+ in the past and didnât like it still have that achievment, even though they may not have done a single one in Shadowlands so far.
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Erm. Your assumption just removes the subject of the discussion, you are simplifying too much. People do leave and come. I am assuming that people who leave are distributed uniformly on the achievement. Then the numbers staying stable mean that new players are doing M+ at about the same rate as before.
The rate of doing M+ staying constant among new players is good enough to assume that M+ as a whole have about the same popularity as before. We need more than âbut I can do no M+ after Legion and this wonât show in the numbersâ to assume that there was a change. You are arguing that existing players behave vastly differently here from new players. This is possible, but needs justification.
In any case, weâll know if the behavior is what you suggest it is - after a year or so. If the achievement percentages go down, then yes, M+ became less popular. Otherwise, it stayed the same.
The fact is that youâre using an achievment that havenât changed since legion to say âthis is how many people playâ when it can easily be proven that someone did a +2 in legion and didnât like m+ and never did it again and would still show up in your achievment database.
Thatâs why using achievments is a flawed argument
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People come and go. Over time a big percentage comes or goes. That the achievement stayed stable from Legion to BFA means that M+ popularity stayed stable. Because the percentage of coming and going in that period is big, if there were significant changes, theyâd show up in the numbers.
We are talking solely for SL now. Yes, itâs possible that the percentage stays stable despite M+ popularity changing and we donât see all these changes just yet. If so, weâll see them later. In a year or so.
You will never see them if youâre using an achievment to collect your data because you said so yourself âpeople without max level toons have itâ
What part of false positives are you not getting when youâre looking at achievment you could get in Legion to determine how popular M+ or WoW is?
Last post on this.
We have 100% of people, 90% of them have achievement X.
Over time, 50% leave and are replaced with new people. The achievement percentage is still 90%. What is the expected percentage of the achievement in new people? Still 90%.
Yes, it is possible that the 50% who didnât leave didnât get a single M+. But it is unlikely. You need to specify why that would happen. The assumption that nothing like this happened is simply the default here.
But it doesnât matter if they leave if you look at an achievment! Thatâs what youâre not getting, even if they leave they still have the achievment so it will still count themâŚ
Itâs like looking at âstepping into the arenaâ achiev to see how active arena is right now when some people may have gotten it in WOTLK or Cata and havenât set foot in an arena since then but they still show up on your radar because âthey have achievmentâ
Looking at the dynamics of the achievement, not at a snapshot. Key difference.
Please do explain the dynamics of the achievment youâre looking at then. How many weeks before you discount someone with an achievment cause they might have quit? How many expansions?
Youâre just spouting out words without actually showing anything
I already said - the achievement rate was around 90% for all of Legion and BFA, now continues into SL. 90.5% to 87.5% or so.
But when does it stop counting people who quit for BFA and still have the achievment? This is what youâre not saying and why youâre argument will always fail
It never stops counting these people. This does not matter. I posted why above.
Then youâre getting a false positive that adds people in your list and youâre entire argument falls flat.
It does matter. Youâre counting people to the active subscription base based on your âM+ achievmentâ when youâre always counting everyone who ever got it even if they quit
Youâre wrong.
The number on that achievment says âThis many people played in legion, bfa and sl combinedâ not âthis many people play in slâ
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Mate, itâs like polling. When you want to gauge the response to a question, you ask a sample of people. You donât ask everyone, you ask enough to extrapolate.
New players are that sample wrt our measure. The default assumption is that the popularity of features like M+ among new players is roughly the same as overall. This is a reasonable default assumption. There might be deviations, but if you posit that there is a deviation for M+, you need to explain why it would exist. If you donât know why that would exist but think it might, letâs wait for a year or so. Then if the percentage still doesnât change, the probability that M+ had the same popularity would grow more. We already waited a couple of years between Legion and BFA, it didnât change. If we keep waiting and this keeps happening, eventually you will be convinced that yes, it doesnât change. On the other hand, if the percentage will change, then I will agree that the popularity of M+ overall changed.
Itâs simple, really. Yes, what I said includes an assumption. But itâs a reasonable assumption. If it was a wrong assumption, weâll likely see soon.