I have seen this happen to myself and many other people had the same issue. If you know a little bit of maths and probabilities you understand that the chance of loot drops for the same slot 3, 4, or even more times in a row is infinitesimal. I really think there is some issue with the system causing some people to get gear for the same slot repeatedly, but no one is looking at it because someone said “it is just RNG”, but no, this is not how RNG works…
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Glad you brought that up and yes, a lot of so called rnd, is not rnd.
The best example i saw for that was when the pet dropped from fishing at DMF. Its the seahorse i think. It was very clear it had a inverse lvl component.
It is very easy to add an extra variable to the rnd:
Dropchance is >
(100% - lvl/2)*rnd(1)
would give a lvl 10 a 95% dropchance, but a lvl 120 40%. Since this is still quit high you can increase the divider, or substract an offset.
And this can be done for anything; depending on the weather, where you stand, the position of the 3rd letter of your name in the alphabet, etc.
There is no straight rnd. At least, it doesnt apply to a lot of things.
It is not shown on sites that give a chance, bc it is not measured (and it is undoable to measure bc you dont know what it is). It only processes raw data, based on a flat droprate. Which adds to the idea that it is a flat drop rate. But it isnt.
Suppose you can get gear for 10 slots, with the only 1 possible gear in there:
You get something the first time and it will always be good.
The second time you have a 1/10 chance you get the same item again.
The third time it is a (a priori!!!) a 1/100 chance
4th a 1/1000
etc.
So yes, the chance of getting the same item again, quickly becomes extremely low. Yet it happens quite a lot…
We have to be carefull with this, bc the spread is a bell curve. Meaning if a million people do this, there will be a 1000 that do get 3 times the same item.
But based on my large amount of top lvls that do this and the amount of doubles or triples i get, id say its not flat.
@Sarahustra: Thing is… as far as I know, loot tables are not even remotely evenly divided… So, what you get as a “first” drop can have massive impact on whether the next one is a double.
A very small example:
A boss only has 3 possible drops (and is 100% guaranteed to drop one of them):
90% chance for plate shoulders.
9% chance for plate wrists.
1% chance for pet.
If your first drop is the pet, you have a 99% probability of getting something else on the second… but if your first drop is the set of plate shoulders, you have a 90% chance of getting them again.
I eblieve it is, I stopped playing for neraly 3 days, and guesss what afetr those 3 days I suddenly was insanely lucky. Here is that bear mount, 2nd last toy, glaives and polearm from Darkshore. Also here 385 weapon, trinket and azerite chest for your lock. Seems to me to have RNG in your favor just not play a while.
Yes, but we were talking about items that have an even drop rate, i think.
That is, we were talking about that and i presume the table for those is even.
Reading back:
Err, that was me i guess. I limited myself to the WF rewards, which seems an even chance.
But Op and others were (also) talking about drops from dgs and such.
And then u r right to point out those loot tables are not even.
Which makes it even more difficult to judge the entire ‘thing’.
lol
Who knows…
TBH, ive often talked about this with ppl and to me it is pretty much fact that when you do something different from your normal routine, your chances for a reward increase significantly…
A lot of things i am sure, are not flat droprates.
There has always been RNG elements. It was even worse in the past in some cases like vanilla where you could be a horde raid of 40 people and you dropped 3 paladin pieces. That was a joy to behold.
What we are currently lacking is some deterministic sources of gear, which always existed in the past during WoW’s prime times. There’s the azerite vendor but you are really discouraged from effectively farming residuum (only 340+ gear gives it, you cant farm it through LFG) and that’s it.
The level of RNG hasn’t really increased a lot. It’s just that the sources of deterministic rewards have decreased and should return in some quantity.
Same happend with my rogue, useless gear slots 24/7 with invasions. i stop caring after I buy the 200 medal mount (btw mounts are shared, also unlocked the Horde version with it, the toys I had to buy them seperatly on each faction) and do 1 invasion 1 week later and suddenly I get said dagger after endless axes and maces. It’s odd since it can be pure RNG but I wouldn’t be suprised if this is calculated aswell. Intencive players who play less to log more by making them more lucky.
To be fair in the past you could target certain slots of gear through the token vendors but even then you were looking at only one piece of gear every few weeks and then only certain slots. Even under the old system where you could specifically target a certain boss as you know their loot table there was an element of never seeing the piece of gear you needed drop.
I can remember this well as there was a weapon that dropped from the chest at the end of the last ICC Hc that I ran every day for over a month in order to finally get. I saw every other single item on that loot table at least a dozen times and in 30 days I only saw the weapon drop twice and I lost the Nb4G roll on it the first time.
Said token gear was also never up to top raid quality, or what would nowadays be mythic ilvl. The modern equivalent would most likely be 370 gear.
There’s merit to all systems though and some people miss being able to selectively and progressively turn their time into a reward. Currently after you’re done with your emissary, incursions and other momentary chances to a reward, you are left feeling like you have not much left to strive and work towards. At least not in a meaningful way.
I think that’s the main thing that Blizzard needs to change. It doesn’t even have to be straight up gear, even sources for better raid consumables management would make people just a little bit happier knowing that their time in the game is thrown towards something meaningful with a proper ratio of “time investment”:“reward” without that being a random or daily event and readily available.
Last night I did Darkshore again but on my 3 toon. Of the 12 rares I killed with and with out a group I received not 1 single piece of gear not mention no mount drops. The world boss same thing just gold.
So my question then is, similar to a lottery, if you have more attempts at something where it has RNG the odds should stack in your favor at some point right? Also the bad luck protection so easily given by GM’s to make you feel better. Is that also a mechanism based on another set of RNG?
Lets take another example, the mount from the Headless Horseman. My wife got it on her 3rd try I had more than 300 tries before I got it. So how can one person have a 33% drop chance whilst another has a 0.003% drop chance. According to WoW head the drop rate is 0.6%.
Another is one of our guildies has the insane achievement and plays everyday, does his farming of mounts daily yet he also does not have the mounts my wife has. So how does that measure up then? A “committed” player gets less than a casual player? I know one should have luck on your side but the difference here goes WAY beyond just luck.
Look I love this game but things like this make it very difficult to stay excited and to return day after day.
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