How come i killed ragnaros heroic 20 times and yet i haven’t seen sulfuras drop, does the mace have some lower drop chance or what?
It is called RNG.
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assuming that the items get picked from 15 items, 25 man is 5 items each, so basically chance that sulfuras is not picked among 20 * 5 items is less that 1%. How is that RNG?
Is it the same as when i have 40% crit on mage, yet 0 out of 10 pyros is a non-crit?
Something is really wrong in this game …
It is indeed really amazing how you managed to kill Ragnaros 20 times in the 10 weeks since FL release.
But even if you did it with multiple character to get to this number, 20 times is WAY to few times to see the drop chance % kick really in.
40% crit chance does mean that 4 out of 10 fireballs are crit, but it means that in 10.000 fireballs you have roughly 4.000 crits.
The probability is the same each time, it doesn’t raise each time the weapon doesn’t drop. There’s nothing wrong with the game (well at least there is nothing wrong with the drop %). That is just how probabilty works.
Loot tables are broken since vanilla or tbc. Some items have 20-30% chance to drop like they should, some 2-3%. They aren’t fixing anything. The game is dead anyway.
If item has has 20-30% chance to drop, there’s like 0,0003% chance it’s NOT dropping in 20 attempts. It’s almost impossible and it means the item has much lower % to drop in first place. Your math is really bad and you don’t know basic probabilities.
Blizzard uses personal drop rates which depends on many factors, including but not limited to amount of tries, how much do you play, how many shop items did you buy and so on. Community sites have wrong droprates which average on some specific player selection and does not reflect reality.
For example it is an established fact that new or returned players have very high drop rates on rare items.
I admit that I am not a math pro, but at least I know how probabilty works. 20 parses are still way too few to actually prove anything. Again, the chance that something drops does not riase each times it doesn’t drop.
If an item has 20-30% drop chance then, it has that chance EACH time. So in 20 tries, EVERY TIME the chance of it not dropping is 70-80%. It is the same each time. Former non-drops do not have any influence on the dropchance for future runs.
From wikipedia: “A 6-sided dice needs AT LEAST 5.555 parses to have a maximum difference of 1% to the mathematically calculated probabilty outcome (1/6 in this case)”
Start complaining about drop rates when you did over 5.000 thousand runs. Everything else is just anecdotic evidance.
So by your logic you can flip the coin 20 times and get tails 20 times in a row (50/50 % chances). You should try it and keep going until you do (it’s 50% chances after all shouldn’t be hard lol). You are not first person here who thinks so and simply can’t understand middle or low school math. European math education is disgusting.
Exactly that is the logic (which I not claim to be mine). You CAN have 20 times tails in row. It is very unlikely, but it can happen. But I am very certain, that with 20 flips it is not likely either that you have exactly 10 times heads and 10 times tails. If we are going with your “you should try that”.
I don’t know where you’re from that is not eu, if you are posting in the eu forums. But maybe the problem is that you treat probabilities and stochastics as low school math, which it isn’t, especially not with probabilities that are more than the 50/50 chance of a coin.
But let’s stay with your coin example. With a perfectly weighted coin the chance of getting tails is 50%. So if you flip the coin once and you get heads, would you expect the chance for tails on the next flip to be anything else than 50% just because you had one times heads already?
Correct, but you said exactly opposite thing before
thus means you have no clue what you talk about and barely start to understand what I tried to explain
You are really confused, I think. Just google “Laplace probabilty” and do a little reading, that always helps. Your 0,00003% are definitely wrong.
Just calculated it with a 4 sided dice, so probabilty to get a 1 ist 25% at a singular roll (and 25% are probably higher than the sulfuras drop rate). The probability of having at least one times a 1 in 20 rolls is about 90% (and since I said I am not a math genius, I used this crazy new thing called the internet). So you have 25% each roll, and with 20 rolls the probability rises to 90%. Which means, there is still a 10% chance of not getting any 1s (or Sulfuras) in 20 parses. 10% is more unlikely than 75%, sure. But it still is a reasonable chance to “miss” without the game being broken, that is just what RNG does. Or, if you call it otherwise, bad luck.
Funnily, mathematics are not opinions you can discuss on. Mathematics are facts.
No, I didn’t. I said CAN happen that the coin shows tails 20 times. It is not likely, no. But if it happens it still doesn’t mean that the coin is broken or manipulated. If you do 100 flips and still having only tails than it might be worth examining the coin.
I don’t say that the probabilty of it dropping the more you try it isn’t rising. I just say that 20 parses way to less to complain about something being broken. And on WoW head, they haven’t even set a drop % for the hammer, so it will be quite low.
Bottom line:
If you do 10.000 runs and the hammer doesn’t drop → something is very likely to be wrong with the game.
If you do 20 runs and the hammer doesn drop → Bad luck, RNG. That is sad, but not a sign that something is wrong with the game.
Whoah! Where can I have tinfoil hat likes of yours? Any proof links?
You need to know basics of probability theory and then observe nearly impossible events too often in the game to make that conclusion.