Hello guys
All i want to ask is why trinkets doesnt drop or why they have like 5% drop chance? Why i ask that?
I am farming Tank trinkets with my warrior and healing trinkets with my shaman and so far i have seen 1 to drop from LFR and the tank did want it. I am farming M+ and LFR for the trinkets and cant find any at all.
Why is that? Is it happening only to me or to the grps i am? WTH!!!
its very low , then need to fix that
Pretty sure there’s bad luck protection on all items? Max I’ve ever had to do is about 10 dungeons for a trink/weap. And I’ve kitted many charas to 400+.
So it’s just a matter of time
When this new patch came up live, i had 25 SotS runs to get a simple 400 trinket.
At around 40 i got a 410.
The funniest thing is: I was grouped with a priest that didnt know he had to stand on ward to NOT DIE, he never had done shrine before. Guess what? He got a 420+socket trinket 1shot. Checked him on rio, he did that 10 with me and a 5 in the past.
Welcome to the RNG world my friend, its never fair.
Lol this rogue is 1.4k rio, pretty much spammed M+, have only seen 1 titan forge throughout the expansion… at season 1… I still haven’t replaced it… it’s 385 ilvl.
Oh I got one extra titan forge, it’s a trinket, that’s way worse than my 385 ilvl one. ![:sob:](https://d1bg94bbsh66ji.cloudfront.net/en/wow/images/emoji/twitter/sob.png?v=6" ":sob:")
I also got a 410 version of the same trinket, which is worse than the TF one too ![:stuck_out_tongue:](https://d1bg94bbsh66ji.cloudfront.net/en/wow/images/emoji/twitter/stuck_out_tongue.png?v=6" ":stuck_out_tongue:")
Pretty sure they did not implement bad luck protection on all gear, i don’t even think they put it on any.
Have over 20 WM runs on lock for trinket and still didn’t get it, but got it from weekly finally.
Pretty sure all gear has the same drop chance for current dungeons. But you’re hunting for specific items, so in your mind you’re comparing the chance of that gear to all other possible drops, instead of comparing it to any other single given item, giving the illusion that it has a lower drop rate.
When i did around 25 rounds in SotS and got each gear piece it gives 5-6 times besides a trinket i got twice in 56 rounds its defiantly not an illusion.
56 rounds this season, above 10+
Okay so i went and actually checked your runs and such and i did some math on this.
The loot table for mistweaver monk in SotS contains 10 items, and we assume they are all equally likely to drop (since that favors you in calculations over having reduced trinket drops).
So first of all, in only 25 runs how did you manage to the 9 other items you didn’t want 5-6 times each especially with an average of around 2.5 pieces of gear per run? That would require around 90-108 runs on average and 45-54 in a best case scenario. This is exactly what i am talking about with the bias. You’re thinking that when you don’t get trinket 5 times in a row, then you got “that same item” 5 times in a row, while you most likely just got 5 other different items, but because they are not trinkets and weapons you thought them to be the same in your head.
I will just assume that you on average got your first trinket after 28 runs. In those runs you did almost exclusively depleted 10s, which award 2 pieces of loot, and then a few in time and a few depleted 12s and 13s, so i am rounding up and saying your group got 2.5 pieces of loot on average per run.
So the chance of you not getting that item is:
1-(2.5/5)(1/10)=0.95 so 95% of your runs, you shouldn’t get it. Now what is the chance that you don’t get it in 28 runs:
(1-(2.5/5)(1/10))^28=0.23783 so around 24% chance of you not getting the item in 28 runs. That is not unlikely at all, that is about the same chance of losing a coin toss twice in a row.
Next we can look at the distribution of the loot across the 10 different possibilities.
Later in your runs, past the first 28, you did start to do higher keys, but still depleting a lot so i am gonna say the group over all 56 runs probably got around 3 pieces per dungeon on average, which i think is fair.
You did 56 dungeons with a (3/5) chance of getting a piece of loot per run, so you got probably 33-34 (33.6) pieces of gear. Now with 10 items being able to drop, you would expect to get, on average, 3 of each item in those 56 runs, and you got 2 of a particular item, i don’t think that is really that unlucky.
And you might say from this that it looks like trinkets have a lower drop rate, but you’re just one guy, and while there are probably thousands of others like you, there are likely also thousands of others who got it in less time than you would expect, so you would need data from tens of thousands of people, before you could draw a conclusion, unless you could get blizzard to release a statement or just straight up the numbers.
Again your whole comment just pointed to exactly what i said about the bias blowing it way out of proportion, while in reality it is not that far out.
Dont know whats your problem and why you make it an issue…
Conclusion for the grounded people: Since i looted every loot it can give me at least 4 times maybe some above 6 and trinket only twice, it has a lower drop chance you like it or not.
Now you may bring your math and whatever comes in your mind to just stand in your intitial point but that doesnt change what i said above, you like it or not.
Well you responded to me saying i was wrong, so i took your statement and showed that i was right, the only problem we have here is that you are telling an obvious lie to make your bad luck (and i admit it is bad luck) seem way worse than it actually is.
The only issue is you make claims with nothing really to back it. Anecdotal evidence on such a scale means nothing, but more on that later.
I am grounded, grounded in logic and not unprovable statements, and anecdotal evidence.
This is probably on of the biggest and most common logical fallacies.
Just because something on a small scale points toward something, does not mean it is true as a whole.
If i experience something, even though multiple times, that does not mean that is true for everyone else. If i see only black ravens my entire life, can i then conclude that there are no ravens that are not black? That is the most common example, but to make an analogy to your situation:
I have flipped a coin 50 times, and it landed on heads 30 times, therefore heads must be the more likely outcome. I really really hope that you see that this is not true, but i can’t be sure you do.
Actually i decided to not go too into math in this one and focus more on just logic, since it seems pretty clear that you are just gonna ignore the math for whatever reason.
My initial point was that i was pretty sure. Now this means that to my knowledge, they all have the same drop rate, BUT i am open to change my mind if evidence presents itself.
Now i have not been able to find any evidence that would suggest otherwise conclusively, but really it is just my default in this, if there is something to definitely show i would gladly change my mind, though it is more like i have not made up my mind, cause there hasn’t been anything to actually try and change it.
I have not stood my ground on the initial point, cause that would imply there had been anything pushing it. Nothing you said was meaningful in the way of changing an initial position. You provided some anecdotal evidence, that cannot even be confirmed. There is nothing you provided that actually suggested conclusively that you claim was correct, therefore there was nothing pushing.
I wanna go back to this for a second. i don’t think you realize just how ridiculous of a statement that is. It is completely grounded in yourself and limited experience. My friend did waycrest 3 times on druid and got balefire, does that mean balefire is more likely to drop than any of the items he didn’t get? I got Conch twice in 8 runs. Does that mean that conch is more likely to drop than Insert any item i didn’t get twice? Of course it does not.
This statement is such a prime example of “i think i am right, therefore this singular instance that conforms to my idea is proof.”
Also i hope you realize that saying “like it or not” doesn’t actually enhance your stance, but actually weakens it, cause it shows that you really have nothing to back your claim and it makes you seem childish.
As a conclusion, and this is important:
I don’t think i am definitely right, it is totally totally possible that you are right, but my point is that we can’t draw a definite conclusion based on what we have.
What got me kind of mad is, that you assumed you were correct, but you had nothing to have it in. No actual evidence or anything, just a strong belief that you were right. You can claim it all you want, and it might be true, but don’t take anything as definite truth unless you can actually back it up with real evidence.
I looted each piece of gear it drops at least 4 times up to 6 or even more. Trinket twice. READ IT and if you cant is not my problem its YOUR problem.
Also i will add in all these runs ive seen it drop 1 more time from a bonus roll and once more the mentioned priest got.
I dont care what you write and what triggers you and you insist on this. once more: I looted each piece of gear it drops at least 4 times up to 6 or even more. Trinket twice
OK?
Edit:
Limited experience you say?
Kinda bet you didnt complete even the half of total dungeons i did complete this season, go whine somewhere else. Facts stated, your math is silly and iconic.
I did read it, but i am not sure you read what i said? I just said that your statement, and more so the original one, was quite unlikely to be true. I pointed it out, cause it was exactly what i see a lot and what i wrote in my original comment. So i think you should ask yourself if it is my problem, that i can point to something you said that is likely an over exaggeration or if that is on you for not thinking or fact checking yourself before writing, especially when what you’re saying is exactly what i wrote someone would say?
Considering the trinket is only available for 15/36 specs and most groups are probably only gonna have 1 caster dps and 1 healer for which it can drop, that only doubles your perceived sample size, which doesn’t really do much, cause the opposite can be said for what i experienced.
I did 8 SotS runs on this, and i got 2 conch, and 2 og my friends got 1 each. That points completely opposite of what you think, so “like it or not” i guess i am right by your logic.
Alright insist all you want, but i hope you know, that disputing that, wasn’t really a big part of the argument against your claimless statement. It was more of a side note or a perfect example of the mentality i was talking about, way back in the original comment.
Even if your statement is true, that doesn’t change the fact that just because you experienced it, in a very limited sample, that it is true for all. And you think it is a big sample, but a big sample that could actually satisfactorily eliminate RNG, would be closer to 10.000 or 20.000
This is actually really funny, cause i actually took the time, like 5-10 min, to count both our total runs. Now i did not take your alts into account (if you want mine, i will list them in case you wanna count yourself), since i don’t know any of yours, and i did a rough count so maybe ±5 and you have a total of 290 runs and i have done 325 this season. Now feel free to tell me about your alts, but i doubt you have done a total of 360 without your main, which is what you would need to have double my runs.
Anyways that is besides the point, but again any singular players experience is a very very limited experience compared to the whole game, especially when it is perceived and not an objective observation.
A very limited amount of facts were stated on both sides. A fact is something that is undeniably true and can only be considered a fact if it can be proved as such. If you gave some sort of proof or even a rational well thought out argument or some empirical evidence with a respectable sample size, i would consider this a discussion. But it is just you throwing out meaningless statements and me denying them all. No one has the answer here, but you don’t even really attempt to have a fact based discussion.
Also saying math is silly is just… silly. Math is just a nummerical and accurate expression of what i was trying to get across, in this case. Instead of saying “it was not that unlikely to happen” i can show you that “there was around a 24% chance of that happening, which is around a 1 in 4, which is not that unlikely.”
Also Iconic is a positive thing meaning “widely recognized and well-established” or “widely known and acknowledged especially for distinctive excellence” so you basically told me it was right, but whatever.
List of alts in case you were curious
All on Draenor:
Baemathan
AlulĂłck
Estonniel
Ebonantler
Baclaeten
Ninimdor
Aluthol (dead alt, but had 2 runs)
edit: Just noticed that i am not actually posting from my main, since i changed my name, Alumage-Draenor is the main.
The priest mentioned above took it at the first run, use your brain for once and add to what you call the RNG system.
As far as what i see, it DOES have a lower drop rate, so is the voodoo healing trinket from atal dazar that ive seen droping ONCE on that monk on my all runs.
You keep insisting while i already mentioned what i have and at the same time that someone 1shotted it. Whats your problem man and you simply cant realize what it takes?
I see your main having 9 sots rounds. Thats good man. You are an expert on calculations.
Im not gonna bother even counting all your+mine runs in atls and main but even the lowerst brain capacity can understand: 55 rounds, 2 drops. Rest 5x droped.
Dont know why you are triggered with this and i dont care. Facts, stated you math is silly and your “triggering” factors and the books you write to back it up;)
Cheers
But that is exactly what i am saying, priest took it in 1 run you took it in 28th run, both are 2 extremes that point in different directions for the drop chance, and therefore based on that you can’t draw a solid conclusion of the actual drop rate, since it impossible to tell what is different drop rate and what is just bad luck, unless you remove that factor by scaling your sample to several thousands.
But this is the whole problem. Just because YOU see something, does not make it true. Back to the famous logical fallacy example, if i only see black ravens in my life, does that prove that there only exists black ravens? of course it does not.
I don’t mind you thinking something based on experience, but if you can’t back up experience with something objective, then it is simply worthless.
No what i can’t take is that you don’t understand that by your logic of, if i didn’t get it fast, then it must have a lower drop rate, would imply that from the other guy’s perspective, who got it in one try, it has a higher drop rate than everything else.
That is exactly why subjective observations in small samples or ultimately meaningless. You have 2 people trying to figure out something that is objectively determined, but both draw different conclusions. That means that by that methodology/sample nothing can be concluded and it is meaningless.
Like i start to wonder if you actually finished high school where you learn this, or if you maybe took and STX where they don’t put too much emphasis on these kinds of things.
Not only is this the weakest insult i have ever seen it is not even correct. Go back and count, i have 8 runs in SotS: 19,18,15,15,14,12,11,11.
Not only that the statement was ambigious and did mention a group of 8 runs, like the group of 25 runs you mentioned, but anyways.
Also, i am by no means an expert on calculations, i am still taking my bachelors in mathematics, so iam not done with it yet.
I didn’t think so and i don’t blame you, but i guess that means you take my word for it?
No, that is what the “lowest” brain thinks. What i will give you is that it points toward the drop rate being lower, but it does in no way conclude anything. You could find thousands of people who had the opposite thing happen and you could find thousands who had the same thing happen, unless you combine and compare all that data, you can in no way make a meaningful conclusion. What you can say is “i THINK the drop rate is lower, because that is what i have experienced”, and that is totally fine. What you can’t say is “i KNOW the drop rate is lower, because i have observed that in 56 out of millions of runs.”
One thing i love here is the irony. You sit here and claim you are right because you experienced that, but you completely ignore the fact that i had the opposite thing happen to me. Why is your claim better? Your sample size is bigger, but what happened to you was still withing reasonable bounds.
You don’t care, but you’re the one who is triggered, or at least we both are. I am triggered that someone doesn’t know basic logic and scientific presentation of observations and arguments. You’re triggered that someone is challenging something you so strongly belief, even though it has no factual basis.
Well the only fact you might have stated is probably the drops, even though it is unlikely, but still, even from that, you cannot draw a factual conclusion. So a fact was stated, but something non-factual was drawn and that is what i am disputing.
Only reason i write long replies is because i actually bother adressing everything you say, even though i really should not at this point.
I take the time to express my arguments in a well thought out manner and to make them as precise as i can, to get my point across. Unlike you who doesn’t even bother addressing everything i have to say, indirectly dismissing things by just pretending not to read them.
At this point i am genuinely concerned that you don’t actually understand what i have been writing because you ignore important statements and conclusions and your replies reflect little to no understanding of what i said or the implications of what i said.
Our last 2-3 replies has been the same things with new words, and nothing of value has really been added to the discussion over the last couple of hours.
I feel like i am playing chess with a pigeon at this point and you’re just on repeat. Like you have a positive claim that i ask you to back up. You provide nonsensical evidence that proves nothing so i point that out and ask you for something real and conclusive. You then resort to childlike, insults and argumentation methods, and just repeat what you just said in bold letters.
At this point it is just a time waster so i am not gonna reply to any non serious response, cause at this point it also feels like you might be trolling and playing dumb, and i genuinely hope that is the case for your sake, but if you manage to find something conclusive, feel free to message me, cause i am actually interested in the answer to this.
(doing the quote just to make sure you know this is adressed to you)
Hey OP.
I don’t know if you get notifications for everything posted on this thread. If you do, then i am genuinely sorry for having bothered you this much over something so useless. I should have stopped the discussion earlier, and it has been meaningless spamming for the last like 6-8 replies.
Because you insist so uselessly much i will let you know the other thing.
At around 20 completions i mailed a ticket.
I told the GM i have 20 rounds and seen it only drop once and that only from a bonus roll and i kindly asked whats the problem with it while nobody of me and my group got it.
He said: There is no problem with loot table, its supposed to be like that and not just me many players mailed and asked the same thing.
Now because youre a book wringing insisting forum boi, mail a ticket to a GM and ask HIS opinion.
Now after 3 books you wrote, you should know your useless math are useless in my reality which is 55 rounds, 2 drops. PERIOD.
There are people in this world who believe the earth is flat, i cant deny your right to believe what you write.
Cheers again.
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