Good read as usual.
One thing I would like to point out, and I do not know if you agree or disagree, is that I do not think Metzen intended for the story of oecs to come as much on the nose as it did according to your analysis. I would even argue that maybe it didn’t.
For one, Metzen quite clearly maps out his sources of inspiration, but even more importantly than that I think, he maps out what his intention was. No other setting had gone out of its way to humanize the orcs as an actual people with noble and good qualities. Even Tolkien as you mentioned struggled with this.
Second, but equally importantly, there isn’t necessarily anything with taking inspiration from material that is heavily romanticised or having only loose historical ties. Disney’s pocahontas comes to mind. Lots of things and popular, and I think that as fictional writers it is one of the most important things that you actually like what you are writing about.
Last but not least, drawing parallels of races being coded to IRL people or races or other similar negative connotations to me feels like painting devils on the wall. In short, it tends to tell more about the one who comes to those conclusions than the actual source material or it’s authors.
I am reminded of the metaphor of 3 blind men who come upon an elephant, and each feel it with their hands, describing one part of it at a time as the truth of what it appears as. All of their interpretations are correct, but just a fraction of the whole story.
Of course, that is where a good author comes to play and is able to write narratives that instil similar conclusions across different readers across time. In this instance, I believe Metzen wanted to write a cooö redemption story for a race that had previously always been treated as the default punching bag monster race, as something new and exciting. And in that, I think, he succeeded.
You can say whatever you want about warcraft orcs, but they were and still are to this date fairly distinctive from other orc variants across fantasy. Less so these days, but more back in the day.