You completely misunderstand how probabilities work. It means the average of ALL PLAYERS drops will tend towards that median. It means nothing for your own drops.
In 20 years of play, possibly a little over a 2000 hours total, I have never seen a Jah. And only saw two Ber. Which can even be considered lucky for some.
This is what I have been telling from day one, since these kind of posts appeared. It is only natural for probabilities to be unintuitive. What I cannot understand is why people remain so adamant in believing loot is bugged even after you try to explain civilized what fallacies they are making in their assumptions.
Math is hardâŚaccepting you have a dry spell and you are unlucky is even harder.
Iâm not entirely sure why I am replying to him anymore. Iâm convinced this is just another account for Danutz. But Itâs quite amazing indeed what low odds do to the human brain. Itâs like playing EuroMillions with a win expectancy.
Iâll just have him run those 1000 cows. Three things I know will happen (they almost always do):
I think this is the crux of the issue. So many people are experiencing a âhighly improbableâ event at the moment - many are reporting no HR drops after long sessions AT ALL. Enough to be a little suspicious I mean.
Absolutely natural. There is no D2 player ever who has not asked this question to himself. Whatâs the deal with the loot? Am I really that unlucky?(always a hard thing to accept) Human brains are hardwired to search for meaning and patterns. What I donât get is when people keep on pushing this idea even after you explain in detail how the loot works, with lots of arguments. Everyone can check this in the files. The loot tables are right there.
There are not many people reporting highly improbable events. ALMOST NO ONE is reporting anything out of the ordinary at all. Not in here, not in the US servers, not in Asia. And nowhere has anyone filled a single bug report. One. Just one. One lousy bug about âthis issueâ.
In fact itâs only in here, the EU, that we are seeing all the loot bug idiots. This is not discussed anywhere else. Certainly not as it is in here. You are going to say itâs the EU servers then⌠
Itâs all in your mind. Learn to recognize bias.
I was surprised to see how civilized are the discussions on US server. I was expecting to be exactly the opposite, but on the US forum people are much more engaged and decent.
Even the ones asking for not so popular changes, like /players x on Battlenet or personal loot, at least offer some good arguments that at least make you think twice if not change your mind and donât show the entitlement we see around here.
P.S. I am all for preserving the original core gameplay of Diablo 2 because it is a precious relic of a bygone era when games didnât hold your hand and didnât cater to everyoneâs feelings. It was the wild west of gaming when games didnât offer instant gratification.
You know that around 1 in every 1000 runes dropped is Ist or higher right?
Now go do some hell cows and see how many runes drop per run on average.
Consider 1/1000 does not even guarantee a drop within those odds, itâs just an average.
Will you come back in a few weeks when you have 2 or 3 ists (or higher) drop within a few days, or do you say nothing and post again only during your next dry season?
These threads are pointless, drops are fine. If the grind is boring for you, this is not the game for you.
Make no mistake. Itâs unfortunate, but true. Thereâs more to learn and appreciate about this game in the US forums then in here. And the differences are abysmal. Myself, I spend more time in there these days than in here.
I have no doubt that I am often a caustic person. But I am always and only towards those I perceive as being idiots, trolls or plain stupid. And I put in that group anyone posing they know this game better than anyone else and coming in here complaining they are not getting their drops â 20 years after this game came out they would know how ridiculous they sound. The fact they donât have a clue, to the point of insisting in their coughed up thesis even after being explained, tells me all I need to know about them.
BTW: I dropped a Lem today⌠Not even in Hell. In Nightmare, while levelling a summoner in the Tal Rasha tomb. Very lucky!
Completely in agreement with you. Fortunately the moderators have done their jobs and eliminated(temporarily I think) the most disturbing element 
on this forum, and as you can seeâŚit the past couple of days we are starting to have an actual dialogue around here, without any on duty trolls foaming around the mouth and trying to cause disagreements just for the fun of it.
I said this multiple times, but Iâll repeat here too, for visibility.
There are two types of randomness used in games.
Actual randomness (aka ârealâ randomness, in quotes, because it is still a seed-based randomness, we cannot create a non-deterministic outcome in a deterministic environment, we can only emulate it) - The event X is independent, and odds of event X to occur do not change based on previous or future events.
Perceived randomness - what we, as stupid humans, âfeelâ is a correct representation of event X. Perceived randomness is usually used in games (reasons explained below).
Simplest example: a coin toss, letâs completely negate the edge possibility, and say that itâs strictly 50/50 for heads/tails.
With actual randomness, if you toss the coin 100 times, you may get into a situation, when you toss 10 heads in a row, and after, toss 10 tails in a row. You may get into a situation when you toss 10 heads, 1 tail, and 15 heads again. For stupid meat bags that we are, such results are extremely confusing, as we cannot match the odds (50/50) with result (10/1 for example).
With perceived randomness, you introduce additional rules that affect the outcome of event X based on PREVIOUS results. So letâs say you have a rule that if you toss the coin 3 times in a row as 1 side, you automatically assign the opposite result to the next toss, independent of outcome. So for example, if you toss 3 tails, next toss will be set as heads, even if you toss another tails. This will skew the outcomes to follow closer to the ânaturalâ feel of the probability.
Many games go with perceived probability, because many people did not study combinatorics (they should). And it makes people âfeel goodâ about the odds.
Amen to that, brother.
And some people donât understand that they interact with this principles on a daily basis. These cognitive biases are not unfortunately limited to D2 or games. And it all comes to education and training your brain, because as you so eloquently put it, we are stupid humans hardwired by evolution to recognize patterns in order to give sense to the world and find purpose. Understanding and accepting the chaotic nature of existence and how volatile âluckâ is, is quite the challenge.
Iâm an active XCOM player, and XCOM (both originals and remakes) use actual randomness.
And oh boy, how many threads have I read about people complaining about shot hit percentages. If for D2R itâs âLOOTZ IS BROKENâ for XCOM itâs âHIT CHANCE IS BROKENâ. I mean, people complained so much it basically became a meme. Whatâs funny, developers (Fireaxis) multiple times told that the math is fine, they even double-checked that statement several times. It never stopped people from complaining.
And I know, when you have that 98% hit chance, you REALLY expect to hit. Your monkey brain expects to hit. So when you miss, itâs infuriating. But thatâs randomness. You may even miss 2 times with 98% if you are really unlucky.
Similar to the reason why people spend their fortunes gambling and why gambling is such a dangerous addiction.
Why play roulette when you can play some Diablo 2 slot machine!? :)))
Been saying this forever, D2 is a slot machine. This is basically the âendgameâ of D2 - you spend ungodly amount of hours to get that Tyraelâs Might that you donât even need, because frankly, its a pretty crappy armor 
Well that would be normal. They donât want us to know the truth ! Only our Lord himself has this knowledge.
Praise.
Guys⌠you keep feeding the troll 
Is it feeding the troll when people are simply pointing out the stupidity in someones claim? 
For now the troll king is in the dungeonâŚsilenced and hungry. But no fearâŚhe will return starved and eager for vengeance. :)))
From what I have read in another threads, these are people who probably spent whole life grinding and farming in classics and now after 20 years and being grown up they just donât find any means to justify time spent 