Guys, this is insane, i`ve just spent 8k bounty materials to cruft a primal shield of fury and did not get even an ancient one !!! Its a second time im writing the post about crafting items, please take a look at the mechanism of primal and ancient probabilities, it works 100% wrong ! if it is said that the probability is 0.001% then it means that 1 time from the 1000 -1001 rolls i should get a primal item, but 8k rolls with no even ancient, really? )))))
And finally please do something with items proc, i do not need 10 primals of blackthorn )))
It seems that u cannot control this by your self already, why do i need the primal items for another classes ???
Please do something with cube abilities, for example 30 primals and one white item makes the 1 perfect primal or whatever !!!
The Cube recipe for reforging a legendary costs 5 of each Bounty material and 50 Forgotten Souls. If we assume you had 8000 of each bounty material (as opposed to 8000 in total), to be able to use them you would also have needed 80,000 Forgotten Souls. Anyway, let’s go with that…
8000 / 5 = 1600 reforges
Chance that reforging a legendary will result in a primal = (1/400)
Chance that reforging a legendary will not result in a primal = (399/400)
Chance that reforging X legendaries will result in none of them being primal = (399/400)^X
Chance that reforging 1600 legendaries will result in none of them being primal = (399/400)^1600 = 0.018
So, 18 people in a thousand would get this result.
Unlucky, yes.
Broken, no.
As for not getting any ancients in 1600 reforges…
Chance that reforging a legendary will result in an ancient = (1/10)
Chance that reforging a legendary will not result in an ancient = (9/10)
Chance that reforging X legendaries will result in none of them being ancient = (9/10)^X
Chance that reforging 1600 legendaries will result in none of them being ancient = (9/10)^1600 = 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000006138
So, roughly 614 in 1 trevigintillion would get this result.
I’ll take things that never happened for 500 please, Alex.
i got about 50k forgotten souls for now, im always running with low paragon guys for forgotten souls and always got a lot of this stuff ! is this all that surprises u ? And yes, i do not want to believe that im so unlucky ( so the only idea i got is that there is something wrong with my profile or with a character file, corrupted, maybe…it is not the first time im writing about this issue, but is seam to me that blizzard do not care about their clients !
Chance that reforging a legendary will result in an ancient = (1/10) - Really ? )))) 4 seasons ago i tried to forge Frydehrs wrath, spent 2k bounty ingredients and got the same result, no even ancient, wrote about that and the all answers that i got were taunts from all support community that this is simply impossible !
As shown in my previous post, the chances of what you are claiming (none of 1600 reforges resulted in an ancient item) are so slim that if I nominated a single atom in the entire universe without telling you which one, then asked you to pick an atom at random, you’d have better odds of being right than this claim being true.
Yes, really.
Items produced by all forms of crafting, via the Cube, or by gambling have about a 10% chance to roll as Ancient.
This has been known since Patch 2.1.2, when they were first introduced in 2015.
So 4 seasons ago you complained about bad rng in exactly the same way as you are doing now?
Why then do you expect the responses from the community to be different?
If you really spend 8k leg crafting mats on reforging 1 item and you didnt get a single ancient you are either the unluckiest person playing D3 or you are mistaken in some way, you either spend way less mats or you consider badly rolled ancients to not be ancients.
Hi Nightwish! Sorry to hear about your lack of luck with rolling an Ancient from your crafts, Diablo 3 is all about the numbers and happy to see that people have already been supplying you with the probabilities of how to get certain things.
The Technical Support forums are really only for people with Technical issues in the game, rather than suspected bugs which we don’t have a way to test or fix through Customer Support.
U know guys, all that what was said in this post is nothing but the only words without any single verification, so u r telling me that i got a 1/400 roll chance to get a primal item ? ill test it in nearest future, i already have 50k forgotten souls and about 1200 bounty materials, and will test it again, somehow i believe that 1/400 is wrong probability and nobody really knows how drop mechanism works, even Diablo developers…
1/10 ancient ? -Bullshit, 1/40 - 1/50 are my chances in real life…Im very sorry for that words, im just getting anger cuz all this situation (
Its been two months, two months from the start of the season and i still cannot get a primal shield, and im almost sure if i`ll get one, the stats will be awful !!! Why ? who knows, this drop mechanism does not make my game life easier…
Yeah, and another one thing. do u want me to record video while ill be rolling this god damn shield ? Some king of evidence…through that u will see that 1/10 & 1/400 does not work at all…
Okay, just so you know…
1200 of each bounty material = 1200/5 = 240 reforges.
Chances that none of 240 reforges will result in a primal = (399/400)^240 = 0.548399
So, you’ll have roughly 55% chance of not getting one.
Good luck.
Go ahead. The expected value for ancients, from 240 reforges, would be 24 ancients. When we see how many you actually get, we can do some statistical analysis of how many you get. By the way, the chance there’ll be none, is infinitesimal.
Chance that none of 240 legendaries will be ancient = (9/10)^240 = 0.0000000000104
All methods of obtaining legendaries have the same possibility of being ancient (1/10) and primal (1/400) with the exception of Cube recipe for converting set items (which can only result in a standard legendary).
I`ll gather 2k bounty materials to make 400 rolls, even 2005 mats to make 401 rolls, and im sure will result no primal, i had this issue before, need 2 more days to get them all.
i got another one question, just imagine i got 3 item i started to roll one of them and got ancient that i liked with its stats will 1/400 possibility work for all 3 items or just only for 1 item to roll at a time?
I tried a number of times to re-read this…
Every single time you do a re-forge, you have the same individual chance of the results, as follows…
359 in 400 = Legendary
40 in 400 = Ancient Legendary
1 in 400 = Primal Ancient Legendary
Do not confuse the individual chance with the cumulative chance. I’m not sure, but I think what you’re asking is akin to the Monte Carlo Fallacy, i.e. the mistaken belief that if you’ve had a run of bad results that you must due a good one (or vice versa).
Regardless of whether the reforge you just did resulted in a legendary, ancient or primal, that has absolutely no impact on subsequent reforges. Subsequent rolls are not predicated on the results of previous rolls, i.e. they’re not contingent.
