5 hour smoked brisket
7 year aged bourbon
30 month matured Parmigiano Reggiano
3 hour slow cooked salt n pepper pork belly
a 30 day Himalayan salt aged 1.4kg Tomahawk
Fast and spurios!
Most of the “speed runners”, are copy pasta imposters. I am glad they burnt out, they cheated, they took the softcore way out of copying other players. The rest of us OGs are loving the game, playing with builds, figuring it all out for ourselves. Plus, we have the season to look forward to!
You keep telling everyone that the drop chance is based on time spent playing, which is wrong. The loot system is based on percentages and the amount of monsters killed, not time spent playing the game.
Everyone have the exact same chance of obtaining an item. It’s individual, and that’s another thing you don’t understand.
By your logic, everyone should get at least one grandfather at the exact same time because the total amount of play time across all current players have reached x amount of hours. That would be wrong.
I’ve got plenty of valid arguments, because i’ve worked with people who’ve implemented loot systems in their games and had conversations with them about it since i’ve worked as a game tester for 20+ years. That’s why.
It doesn’t work the way you think it does. It really is that simple. Your estimates are wrong because the reasoning and logic behind your estimates are wrong and it has never worked the way you think in any Diablo game, ever.
100 million players could be playing for 1000 hours total, or individually and it still wouldn’t matter if the amount of kills each individual player is below the threshold.
Again, time means nothing. It’s the amount of mobs killed that means everything when you’re dealing with a percentage based loot system.
You’d need to kill on average, 100 monsters per hour for 10 hours to reach the threshold for an item with a 0.1% drop chance. That’s because 0.1% = 1000 kills. That’s the literal formula.
It doesn’t mean anything if the total player base have played for 100,000 hours or 1,000,000 hours if none of them have killed 1000 mobs individually during those hours.
Obviously, the more you play, the more mobs you’ll end up killing, but it’s still gonna be 1000 for an item with a drop chance of 0.1%.
You’re the one not understanding a thing here, bud.
Let me explain it in a way that most people should be able to understand then…
Time itself has no effect on your chances of getting loot. The only thing that matter is how many mobs you kill.
If you spend 1 year killing 1 mob per day but you play the game and idle for 5 hours per day, you’ll have killed 365 mobs on the last day of the year while having spent 1825 hours in-game. If the item you want has a 0.1% drop chance, you’ll still need to kill significanly more in order to have a decent chance of said item dropping.
It doesn’t matter if millions of players play for millions of hours, killing 100,000 mobs between them, because each drop chance is individual, meaning that if you want something, you’ll have to kill x amount of mobs yourself regardless of how much time is spent or how much time others spend playing and killing.
What’s guaranteed is that someone will get lucky before anyone else and be the first person to get x unique and ultra rare item.
You don’t seem to be capable of grasping the concent of percentage based drops in games, so i’ll just leave it at that.
“It doesn’t matter if millions of players play for millions of hours, killing 100,000 mobs between them, because each drop chance is individual, meaning that if you want something, you’ll have to kill x amount of mobs yourself regardless of how much time is spent or how much time others spend playing and killing.”
Is this your first time with statistics? Because they DO NOT work like this at all
No, time does not matter. Doesn’t matter what you say or do, because the only thing that matter is the amount of mobs you kill. Drop rates are not affected by your time spent playing.
Obviously if you kill far more mobs than i do, yes, you stand a greater chance of obtaining x item before me, but that’s because you kill more mobs, not because you spend more time doing it.
I’m applying facts to your fiction. Simple really.
It is literally how it works, yes, and no, they’re not statistics, It’s simply information based on how drop rates work in most games.
No, my first time working with statistics was when i studied for my BA in Marketing and sales. Then i went on to work in the gaming industry in marketing and sales, along with working as a game tester, which gave me even more experience and knowledge from working on testing literally thousands of games. Albeit, i quit working in the gaming industry with marketing and sales because the gaming idustry in general turned into a cesspool of greedy company CEOs who put their workers last and money first. I did keep working as a game tester for several years after.
This is derailing the topic, either way.
You either accept the facts of how things work, or you keep on believing in your own deluded version. Your choice. Me? Couldn’t care less. I’ve said my piece and i’m done with this tedious debate.
“It doesn’t matter if millions of players play for millions of hours, killing 100,000 mobs between them, because each drop chance is individual”.
True, it is individual, and you playing the game has no effect on my RNG roll.
But at the same time, how can you say that killing 100000 is not a fair metric of evaluation since the kills were split between x players? Like this I don’t understand.
Let’s say an item has a drop chance of 1 in 10 and we are 100 people, each killing 1 monster. That is 100 monsters killed. You are saying that because the kills are split amongst different players, that the roll on the RNG should not have happened?
Maybe we misunderstood what you are trying to convey, but if this is what you are trying to say, I am sorry to tell you it is wrong.
Assuming drop rates are straight and not influenced by factors like pity timers and such:
You are right that if something has a drop chance of 0,1% it is 0,1% each time a mob is killed.
However when you’ve set out to kill 1.000 mobs, your chance of seeing an item with that chance drop is about 63%.
Now if you set out to kill 10.000 mobs the chance of seeing this item drop is already almost 100%.
Note that this obviously never is 100% because there is always a chance of this not dropping.
(Calculation is 1-(chance of not dropping)^(number of mobs left to kill) → 1-0,999^1000 ≈ 0,63)
So the chance of not seeing this item in 10.000 mobs is really really small. It can happen though.
((Fun sidenote: after killing 100 mobs and not finding the drop, the chance of the item dropping in the remaining 900 mobs is about 59%, so lower))
Now what people are saying is that with the combined mob kills of the community it is very odd that we have seen certain items only drop a few times (or not at all).
Even if the drop chance is 1 in 1 million, we should definitely have seen one in about 10 million kills and with enough kills it should eventually normalise to AN AVERAGE of one drop in every million kills (because that is the drop chance).
What people are saying furthermore is that, using the logic of the formula above, is to have any realistic chance of the item dropping you must be prepared to kill a lot of mobs and most people won’t even see the item at all.
This doesn’t take away that even if the chance is 1 in 1 million, you could start up the game for the first time, kill your first mob and get the item, but that is a chance of like…
He thinks spending zero time has no effect on you getting the super rares… literally replied saying time does not matter to comparing zero time spent looting vs 6 hours a day… you are discussing it with a void, mate.
I truly think it’s a language barrier problem as I cannot believe a grown man does not understand something so basic. Maybe english is not his first language, mine either , and something got lost in translation. Otherwise, yikes
Well, I am not going to assume too much and I don’t want to sound like a d*. But there might be a misunderstanding.
They state time played has no influence on drop chance which is technically completely correct.
Furthermore, you cannot base any of these statistics DIRECTLY on time played.
However, there is the implicit assumption (and I think correct assumption) that time played is usually spent killing mobs. And mob kills are relevant to these statistics.
Now there are many reasons why people might fail to grasp that implicit assumption, so I will refrain from judgement for now.
I think it’s more about how “aggressive” he is in his opinions. He brings valid points but a lot of invalid ones , or maybe just ones that lost their meaning in translation. Who knows these days?
not that a super rare will drop for you but too many super rares are dropping
it the old 7 monkey
If 7 monkeys bang randomly on typewriter given time sooner or later one of them will type out the complete works of shakespere
And since most of those items end up on the RTM people cc their way to the top
So too many super rare make people too powerful and they rush to the end.
Super rares are just one aspect of the dumbing down
Content that is supposed to last 3 months is rushed through in a day or 2 using bots and exploits and just plain cheating buy impatient kids with the attention span of gnat
I think he is trying to combat the argument that time is a good measure for this calculation. Which I tend to agree somewhat. But if time is the only metric we have access to, how can we be blamed for coming to conclusions based on the information we have available? Is it a rough estimate? Of course. But I don’t think either of us claimed it as absolute truth so I do not understand what he is trying to say.
Of course we would all like to have the information filtered by above level 85 and mob kills instead of hours, but hours is what we get. And I do not think it is too farfetched to equate hours in an arpg to the killing of mobs.
