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Fire is only effective with ignites.
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Unlike frostbolt (binary spell; meaning it either hits for the full damage or it “misses” (gets resisted)), fire spells can also be partially resisted (meaning that they can hit, but for half the damage or even less). This is made worse by a lot of bosses in MC/BWL either being entirely immune to fire or having fairly high fire resistance. Because of these things, frost is the safe & steady option at low levels of gear - it’s consistent and it works.
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Fire becomes better - much better - once you’ve got the hit and crit to roll ignites. That’s simply not possible with MC gear, as you go into BWL. Sure, world buffs help, but they’re just…not enough to keep it going. At that point, you’re probably not even hitcapped because the gear doesn’t allow you to be.
I mean, you’ve got access to tier1 - arcanist set. 5 out of 8 pieces have neither hit nor crit. Same thing applies for tier2 (netherwind). 5 out of 8 pieces have neither hit nor crit.
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Fire is sustainable when you’ve got plenty of crit thanks to Master of Elements (refunding some mana on crit), but for that you need to crit. With MC gear, you’ll crit once in a blue moon and you’ll actually go oom on plenty of fights (during progression) in average guilds (as in, guilds which don’t have 10+ warriors with rank 14 weapons to carry the dps on day 1). Even as frost, on Ragnaros, you struggle to keep up, often using 2-3 gems and mana pots + evo.
Once you’ve got full BWL bis (NOT tier2, but BWL - we’re talking Bracers of Arcane Accuracy, Mish’undare, not t2 helm/bracers; Neltharion’s Tear etc) you can start looking at fire and once you move to fire, you stay there until the end (for AQ and Naxx).
But until the end of BWL, as a mage, you’re going to be frost during progress, it’s not even up for discussion. Once it’s on farm and people have close to full bis gear, sure, some of them might go fire and do close to nothing on half the bosses in there.
I 100% agree with you. You can’t even dual spec as a mage, because before AQ you’re either frost or useless; after AQ, you’re either fire or useless.
Like every anti-dual-spec guy on the forum, he made up an imaginary scenario that’s never going to happen in any half-decent guild. It’s how they operate. “don’t touch my thing (which isn’t theirs) because look, in this impossible scenario, this might happen”.
It’s utter nonsense, like I said and clearly coming from someone who knows nothing about vanilla/classic mages anyway.
I’m sure there’ll be a few tryhards switching between fire and frost just because they can, on the few MC/BWL bosses where that’s even an option, but NOT because a guild will demand it.
Besides, at that stage, even if you DID have the gear for fire, even if you COULD somehow roll ignites, your tank would most likely not have the gear to hold aggro because their MC/BWL is crap too (other than TF).
By the time you’ve got the gear for fire (say, after you have full BWL bis gear), there’ll be no reason for any guild to ask you to have a secondary frost spec. Before that, there’ll be no reason for any guild to ask you to have a fire spec.
As a matter of fact, in FULL BIS BWL and MC gear, your gear grants you 8% crit and 4% hit (5% with ringo, which are for frost only)
Trying to play fire with 4% hit and 8% crit from gear would be hilarious. Sure, Elemental Precision helps with hit (up to +6% more), but that’s still waaaay too low. Sure, you’ve got Critical Mass and Combustion in the fire tree. But you’re still way under hitcap and nowhere near being able to reliably crit - and without that, you can’t get mana back from Master of Elements, nor are you able to keep up ignites.
With DMT buffs, Onyxia head and Songflower, you might be able to roll ignites with 3 other mages in the raid (all in bis gear, all world buffed) - so 4 mages, it’s just maths - but even then, hit chance is way too low and some bosses are still immune.
Besides, nobody’s going to force mages into anything. Their contribution to the raid dps is too low to even matter. With the buff/debuff limit removed, mages are mostly going to be brought to raids because there’s only going t be one druid (faerie fire bot) in a naxx raid and he won’t be able to decurse both sides at Sapphiron. For DPS reasons, look to wars and warlocks (now that they’re going to be able to use corruption and possibly CoA/CoD, if they’re not on CoR/CoW/CoE duty).