I asked a friend who works as an assistant professor at a Dutch university (in the field of statistics). Here is what he told me, in regards to the drop rates (MATH WARNING):
"An increase from 22.28 % to 23.04% considering the event to get the item at least once.
before the update: Probability of zero items: 0.9997^(60 times 14), so 1-0.9997^(60 times 14) is the chance to get one or more. This is equal to 22.28%
after the update: Zero items: 0.9997^(59 times 14) times 0.999^(1 times 14). One or more is 1-0.9997^(59 times 14) times 0.999^(1 times 14) = 23.04 %"
The above is based on doing all 840 attempts, so 60 characters per day for 14 days (which is what I’m doing). It is also assuming the “great increase” was to 0.1% up from 0.03% drop chance (for 1 char per day), which many have theorized is the case, based on the data we now have.
So this “great increase” was exactly as marginal and useless as I suspected.
The fact that they call this a “great increase” either means they are completely inept and incapable of performing math and assigning it to their loot tables properly OR they are being intentionally vague and not giving out numbers, because it’s easier to just dangle the illusion of a carrot in front of people and hope for the best.
Honestly disgusting wording in that blue post which addressed this update, considering the change garnered the people who farm on all their alts less than 1% increased chance.
Praying we can get a buff for the last week of the event.
There’s multiple posts about the drop chance now and a lot of the comments agree that the drop chance is too low, and that only buffing the 1st kill pretty much does nothing for collectors.
Buff it for every kill, don’t let us wait another year. Please.
Yeah I’m not holding my breath on that one, everyone on twitter is posting theirs and the devs love twitter so much so i doubt this will happen as they’ll just think it needs no change… the usual.
all confirmed kills on the forum and for such a small community that uses the forums now , there is no doubt it has gone up a little.
dont forget less then 3% of the EU playerbase even use the forums.
After i got mine last year i screamed then quickly felt numb and relief after 50 kills per day for as long as i could steaming back to first event.
I hope people get it but they cant rise it to high else it become’ s a nothing mount just like Sha has or increase the rate and take away the FoS. Even make it buyable for tokens.
Just because the <1% of people that own this mount, and not even all of those, would complain about their bragrights being taken away with a buff, doesn’t mean we should stop a buff from happening.
This mount shouldn’t be so ridiculously rare when only available for 15 days a year. It’s not fair to anyone.
Grats to the people winning the lottery, but I think it’s about time this mount gets buffed up to 1% per kill. It’s been long and tedious enough.
And if Blizzard has to remove the FoS to do that, feel free to do that, just give us the buff before the end of this years event.
No chance in hell this will happen. It took them over a year to come up with this ingenious idea of “GREATLY” increasing the drop for 1 character per account per day.
With Blizz? I wouldn’t bet. Apparently, DF is a success so until people start unsubbing en masse, we won’t get any improvements other than some devs polishing their own work.
Also, wait for 10.0.7 and this new ring - 100% negative feedback and they will still push it as if no one spoke about it.
The feedback to borrowed power has been pretty overwhelmingly negative, so the fact that they now want to add back, with a system that has already failed in the past, is pretty cringe.
Definitely not 100% though, because you still have the army of clueless orangutans pushing for updates like these, despite it doesn’t affect their gameplay in any meaningful way and is ruining the game for the rest, whom it does affect.
Its a free 421 ring for a few months doing some fun activities on new isle . it will be replaced in season 2 and by now everyone has KSM and Atoc so it makes no difference.
For a guy who just called out “baseless numbers”, only minutes ago, you sure do display a good amount of hypocrisy with a statement like that. But then again, what would I expect from someone hiding behind a level 10 character posting passive aggressive smileys as soon as someone challenges your views and opinions.
