Hello everyone!
I am a Fury Warrior playing on Shazzrah (A) who has 79 kills (according to my DBM Addon) on Warchief Rend Blackhand.
I started slowly, with full runs (for the first 15-20 runs), trying to get everything in the dungeon (such as Truestrike, Painweaver or Armguards). However, after about 20 runs, not seeing any MH drop (at that point I had the OH), I decided that I need to make my own groups and to reserve it. (I simply did not want to risk it, having 15-25% chance to win the roll in case it drops).
So, that was about 15 days ago. Since then, I killed him between 1 to 10 times every single day, for a total of 79 kills. Last evening, we even got a Felstriker drop (0.1% drop chance according to Wowhead).
Also according to Wowhead, the drop chance of the Main Hand is between 4% to 5%. What is going on? Statistically I should have seen 4 weapons. Is Wowhead wrong? Is the drop rate 1% or what is going on?
I am not buying Krol Blade or anything like that. I cannot accept the idea of having /100 played hours invested in Jed/Runs and simply pay 400 G for a Krol Blade. (to me it would feel like studying for months for one exam and then bribing someone to pass the exam - something like this, I am sure you get the idea)…
Bad luck.
Random is random.
11 Likes
By my calculations, you have about a 2% chance to never see an item with 5% drop rate across 79 runs.
wowhead might be wrong. Don’t count on it. Also it might be bad karma for doing reserved runs.
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Unfortunately, it is always 5%. You can run this instance 4 million times and each and every time you go there, there is only a 1 in 20 chance you’re going to see it, prior runs don’t increase you’re likelihood. Right now you’re at 1 in 75 chance, however lots have seen it almost every time they go i;m sure. It all balances out sadly
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This.
I’ve done about half as many runs and still no luck, but there must be hundreds of players in the same boat.
No; statistically, players (as in “all players together”) will see it on average about ~4 times (if the drop rate is indeed close to 5%), but a lot of them have never seen it, and a lot of them have seen it many more than 4. Your individual experience is just one event.
The rogue I do “Rend runs” with (hoping for Felstriker in his case) has done it over 100 times, and still going for it. Nobody knows the drop rate for sure because when it’s so low data become unreliable. If you saw it in less than 79 you were lucky.
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For 79 kills you have:
100* (1 - ((100-5)/100)^79) = 98.3% chances of seeing the item drop.
That leaves 1.7% chances of not seeing it.
Even in 100 runs, you still have 0.6% chances of never seeing the item.
Probabilities can be a b*ch when you are really unlucky 
4 Likes
Did 15ish Maraudon Princess kills, and not see a single Blackstone ring drop, it has 23% drop chance.
Just bad luck.
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Saw both the swords drop twice. Also seen HoJ drop a bunch of times so yeah. Random is random.
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Not a 0% chance tho so still very possible
As someone who saw 2 onyxia mounts drop before I got the one weapon mog I wanted from her;
RNG is a fickle mistress
There is no bad luck protection so saying 2% chance that you see 0x 5% drops also gives a bit of a skewed image, it is 5% everytime, which is a low chance every time
You cant guarantee for example that if you pick 100 random numbers from 1-100 that it will select every number once
This was the point I was getting at. 2% is 1 in 50. OP’s situation is not actually all that rare when you look at it in those terms.
Yeah my thought as well, 1 in 50 in a million+ player game
I did it 48 times, and… nothing, never saw it. I did see Felstriker though.
Anyway, if you can manage to make 30g in an hour, spend about 10 hours doing that and get a Krol Blade, or just do another 10 runs , which would also take about 10 hours (1 hour per rend run, all inclusive). I’d say farming the Rend MH that long is not worth the time.
My guild did 120ish UBRS runs before we saw a main hand drop, and then we got 2 right after eachother.
Random is random and water is wet.
2 Likes
lmao, learn how statistics work
Same boat, 40+ runs and seen 1 drop. Typically the level 58 war in full greens won it. Seriously, my keyboard nearly went out the window. It’s the biggest rage I’ve ever had in a game lol.
I’ve given up now it’s seriously not worth the effort for 40 AP. You lose 16 stats from mirahs song alone having to use the trash off hand. That’s 16 AP and 0.25 crit. Is it really all that time for 24 AP? Which is like 2% more damage on a full pre-bis war.
I have over 90 kills of Guard Mol’dar, no bracers.
Luck is luck. The good thing is - once you get the item, that is that. No Titanforging, no random sockets, no corruption garbage.
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You have angered RNGeezus.
Never seen any of them swords while i have seen 2x felstrike. 35 Rattlegore kills and never seen shadowcraft boots. 20+ mara runs and never seen ring. RNG is RNG.
1 Like