Usually, private server population took a nosedive once AQ 40 was made available. By Naxx 40 release only about 1/3 of the original pop were still around.
I started playing in Dec 2005 during patch 1.8-1.9, the Gates Of Ahn Qiraj, and I remember well that Vanilla lasted abt 1 year more until Dec 2006.
Do you think we have 1 more year of Vanilla Classic on the current servers before they release TBC?
On Nethergarde Horde side there was/is a decline among raiding but some recruitment / guild reshuffling helped get the ~40 somewhat for us. It’s natural that the player count will decrease and for Naxx even more guild will have to merge.
TBC news with character migration option will invalidate that - new players will join to max out their chars before TBC and those that weren’t that keen at playing Naxx tier will be more inclined if they want to play more.
People increased in Classic only will decline as they did on pservers… but if Blizzard announces fresh then old realms can get killed pretty quickly. Not everyone is used to the pserver FRESH replay-ability but still even if half instead of the usuall 99% active players moves fresh it will be very impactful.
What makes you think they will release TBC?
I bet Classic will last till early spring before the big drop. Naxx is prob be released in early winter or late fall at earliest. As stated above. Its quite obvious that playerbase will decline with time.
I hope TBC comes next september 2021 or so. With that there will be plenty of people to return for the game as its get colder outside.
There was a very specific survey and there is a large (possibly larger than Classic) audience for TBC and WoTLK - including Kripparian 
I am seeing 3 months for AQ 40 before the whiners start whining that their guild is losing all members blah blah blah and Blizzard caving in and dropping Naxx.
So, I expect Naxx to be released in early November and I reckon 3 more months for the playerbase to get bored of Naxx content by which point I expect Classic pop will drop dramatically.
Vanilla basically dies as soon as Raiders stop caring and stop logging.
I expect Raiders being bored of Naxx content by Feb 2021. By that time Classic subs will have dropped by 2/3 over what we have now and the need to release TBC will become acute as the ppl who returned for original Warcraft won’t stay around for Refail.
So Blizzard must have TBC rdy for release early 2021.
There will be Shadowlands release in late 2020 so no Classic big patch will happen there. Naxx will be no sooner than some time after retail launches.
Well, the game ends when you clear Naxx.
Not sure there is a point in continuing to play past that event. I sure did keep playing back in Vanilla although I did not clear Naxx, I just don’t see a point in keep playing now after clearing Naxx.
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