I think a likely deduction is that they have concluded, quite rationally that if and when they publish real server stats it will influence character creation and migration as players seek to find a server when any imbalance benefits them exacerbating the situation of faction imbalance.
There are websites that show these stats https://ironforge.pro/ however these results are not a guaranteed representation of actual stats.
There are easy small fixes that can help decrease the problem like restricting majority faction character creation etc and allowing only the majority faction population to transfer away etc
I believe this this is what they are attempting however they are limits to the effectiveness due to the human element. As has already been mentioned players will avoid unbalanced servers or whats worse activity seek ones that benefit them. And it’s a safe assumption that over there are more Horde Players on PvP servers and more Alliance players on PvE servers.
However, it’s plain to see that if overall horde players outnumber alliance players (and they do) all or almost all servers will be imbalanced. And I can’t see players been “forced” into a faction.
While these types of measures might help slow things from getting any worse now, the fact that they weren’t in place prior launch is the reason the majority of servers are in the kind of mess they’re in to begin with.
If someone is truly unhappy on their realm, blocking them from transferring will not make them just “suck it up” and play anyway, more likely they will quit or re-roll and the cycle continues.
Blizz cannot undo what they’ve created, not without starting fresh with proper limits in place from the get go.
Now let’s say 20 horde players want to join. Let’s consider some possibilities:
Ideal scenario: you somehow make those 20 players join server A. Both A and B end up perfectly balanced 50/50.
No player has the slightest clue where to go, so they randomly go half and half. Servers are now 40/50 and 60/50. Could be worse.
You let everyone know what the ratios are. Because nobody wants to be 31/50 they all join server B, leaving them with 30/50, 70/50. Awful.
Some people have suggested quotas, which are closer to option 1. On paper it’s the best for global population, but there are some practical problems affecting individual experiences which I guess is why Blizzard’s not a big fan.
Their approach is something close to option 2, except some people have some idea what they’re getting into. Instead they aim to balance population through migrations.
If you want to measure server stats download the Census plus addon, it still works perfectly fine but it can no longer run on autopilot, you have to press interface buttons or mouse click in 3D world aka play the game.
Count the level 60 characters on one faction (since it counts from 60 to 1) and do the same for other faction and you will get a rough estimate of faction balance.
Count during prime time since in off hours there are less players of dominant faction
I still cant believe they thought it was acceptable to start the launch name deal with ONLY 2 PVP SERVERS.
That kind of stupidity is insane. Especially when they knew at minimum 300k players would be playing and they would be a tiny portion of the initial playerbase etc