Yep, some trinkets are more op than ones from m+, but sometimes vice-versa is also true.
Atleast for this season, in 11.5 we will have 2 token which can be exchanged for raid items. Atleast its something.
I simply dont agree with your math.
If you toss a coin, and want to calculate the probability of having 10 heads in a row. If you toss the coin sufficient times the probability of creating the sequence : 10 heads in a row asymptotically tends to 100%.
So whatever the size of the loot table, if you take random samples from it, eventually you will get what you want. That has a 100% chance of happening. The question is, how many draws do you need? Which can be quite a lot.
But I have to say that 80 runs to get an item you want is extremely anomalous. I don’t know anyone that has farmed for that long for 1 item. Especially because you can tip the scales of your looting chance by bringing people that share your loot table.
This “the item still has to drop, which can legit never happen” also applies to Raids. The vault situation you describe also happens as well for Raids.
The KEY difference is that you dont have to wait 1 week to try again.
And as I said. You have 100% chance of looting something if you repeat it enough times.
What you are describing is that the X amount of times you have to do that is too much for you. Which is a fair assumption.
But saying that M+ somehow gets loot “better than raids” is false. It is much easier to acquire in M+ because you can farm it (repeat the content many times). Unlike Raids.
And that is why raiders are farming M+ for some bracers and not some M+ players farming the Raid for some Bracers.
I cleared normal and then was lucky enough to get my ilvl 632 holy paladin into a heroic raid which we cleared 7/8.
Spent all day doing it.
Didn’t get one item.
Was a bit… dishearting.
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With all due respect my friend, the established rules of mathematics do not care whether you agree with them or not. 
If you take a 3% chance of a drop, that means that ther is also always a 97% chance of it not dropping. And you can easily calculate the cumulative percentage change of it dropping using the formula p= (.97)to the power of N, n being the number of attempts.
And even if you insert infinity for n, the mere fact that the constant of failure is in this case .97 and not 1 by definition means that it can never, theoretically nor practically, be a 100% guarantee, because they it would not be a random drop chance to begin with. Which means as my own experience and example showm that there is in the end always still a chance of failure, no matter how small it may be. 
This is simply basic cumulative probability calculation that used to be taught in highschool back in my day 
https://www.cuemath.com/numbers/theorem-of-total-probability/
Nor did I state that with regards to actually participating in the content, but merely with regards to the dinar /boullion system, which eradicates the chance of failure entirely from the equation. But, again, only in 1 direction, which is where it then becomes “unfair” to the raider that has to spam M+ for potentially the entire season and still possibly never see his item, even though the chance is low. Wheras the other side gets a freebie after x weeks and never has to actually play the content. That´s why I agree with Amonet that chase items from BOTH should be on the vendor, on myth track, and not always just giving the top level raidloot away “for free”, as is now happening for the third zime in 11.1.5
This is a classic probability problem involving independent trials. I know what I am talking about.
Given:
- Probability of picking the desired item in one draw: p=3%=0.03p.
- Number of draws: n=10 (for example).
- We want to find the probability of getting the desired item at least once.
Solution:
The easiest way to solve this is by using the complement rule:
-
Find the probability of never picking the desired item
The probability of not picking the desired item in one draw is:1−0.03=0.971. The probability of never picking it in 10 draws (since each draw is independent) is: 0.97 ^ 10 -
Find the probability of picking it at least once
Using the complement rule:
P(at least one success) =1 − P(no successes) = P (at least one success) = 1− 0.97^10
- The result
0.97 ^ 10 ≈ 0.737
1−0.737 = 0.2631
So, the probability of picking the desired item at least once in 10 draws is ≈ 26.3%.
20 draws is ≈ 45.9%.
30 draws is ≈ 59.9%
and so on…
Did I get something wrong here?
Especially with those “very rare” items.
Are we talking about just spamming M+ for HC gear or we talking Vaults. Cause I played the entirety of last season and never did se a weapon in the vault. Also when it does come to just dungeon spamming you do need a key for the dungeon at an appropriate level, which as a dps could be a problem and will limit your tries.
No, you are correct. But if you just look at the way teh numbers move, in ever smaller increments as teh number of attempts increases, it´s clearly a logarithmic equation. And as a result of that you can get infinitely close to 100%, but never actually have that 100% guarantee.
And that´s wher the crux of the issue lies and why some people never get item X even though they’ve been chasing it for almost 20 years
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The vault sucks because its weekly. That is the difference.
And we are talking about HC gear drops. Everyone knows the Vault is a scam.
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You dont need the probability to be 100% to see it drop.
You could get the drop at the 1st attempt.
You have to see those numbers the following way:
Out of 100 players farming those bracers, 23% will get it in 10 attempts. And 59% will get it in 30 attempts or less. And a super TINY fraction of the player-base will have to do more than 50 attempts to get that item. 1 in a million people.
That is why when you claim to be farming the bracers for 80 attempts, you are the ONE unlucky dude that had to farm it for that long.
And now that you have to farm them once again, the chances of you being in the 99% percentile of “unlucky” players twice in a row is really low… that indicates to me that there is something else other than chance at hand.
But whatever the math sais, you have a point. Farming IS annoying. Even if its 2 attempts. That is why Blizzard put all these “bad luck” protection mechanisms in place. The Vault being one of those attempts, and a lousy one at best.
So some reform is in order. But it still dosent change the fact that in M+ each “attempt” is 40 minutes of your time (which is feasible to do), while each attempt for a raid is 1 week. Which is not feasible. Basically, to get that 23% chance:
M+ = 10 x 40 minutes which is 6h of gameplay. You can do that 1st day of the patch if needed.
Raid = 10 x 1 week. Which is 10 weeks. The patch is over by then.
And that is why raiders farm M+. And that is why M+ players are so annoyed at raid loot.
Correct, and as I said before, i have notoriously bad luck on my mage because Blizzard hates gnomes or something, and I just have to live with that. 
But 30 attempts is still, assuming an average clear time of +/-30 minutes, 15 hours. Roughly the equivalent of 7-8 full raid clears. So, roughly 2 full months of the season doing nothing else, if we assume equal time invested in raiding and M+.
Again still you need a key/group in order tobget your tries. Now this is more a problem with roles shortages but its a factor.
Over all what I would want to see is a bullion vendor implemented from the start. We already get catalist charges biweekly, the bullions can be biweekly aswelll so you get something each week. Also have M+ loot in them for the raiders.
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7 full raid clears is 7 weeks. Dosent matter how long you play.
That is less than 24h in a day. Make that 2. Or 3. Heck, lets split that up in 1 dungeon per day (40 min a day). That is still 15 days, or 3 weeks.
3 weeks < 7 weeks.
Both ways are valid ways to look at it. The point is that the total time investment into content you wish you didn’t have to run is absolutely comparable, whether you go full sweatlord and run all 15 hrs in one day or split it into 1.5-2 hrs a week, the total time invested is still exactly the same, and therefore deserves a comparable reward.
But it doesn’t matter. Its really pointless to argue who has it worse. The issue is the problem exists for both sides, hence we need a better way to deal with this.
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I agree 100%.
Specifically, if we are going to have a dinar /boullion system every season going forward, as appears to be Blizzard´s intent, then chase items such as weapons and trinkets from both modes need to be on the vendor and upgradeable to max level, as you suggested
Otherwise the discussion will merely flip in one or two seasons and it will then in fact be primarily the raiders posting 4-5-6-20 threads /season about not wanting to run M+ to get thieir BiS items
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That is not my point.
My point is that as long as Raid gear remains a powerful source of gear, the fact that you have to wait for 7 weeks to get it is not ideal. At-least with M+ you have the option of going full sweatlord. Or not. Your choice. But raids have a weekly lock out. Like it or not.
I call that the Fyrak leggo effect:
The individuals that got it the 1st day got a massive power-up and could “benefit” from the item for a whole patch.
Then there are individuals that got it 3 weeks before the patch was over. When all bosses were killed. And all keys were pushed.
They literally spent the whole patch watching other people do 10, sometimes 20% more damage because they got “lucky”.
And the more power a specific item gives (weapons and trinket) the more pronounced is this problem.
So while bracers and boots dont present this issue as much, weapons and trinkets (especially those that give a lot of power such as Mr. Pick-Me-Up in case of RShaman) are an issue.
Correct, it was MY point 
And mine is that even if you do go full sweatlord, you can still come out empty handed at the end of the day, which is equally suboptimal
Yes some got it early and as a result got to shine for the first few weeks.
But anybody that got it after more than 15 weeks was not clearing HC in all of those weeks, but NHC and/or LFR, simply because due to the baked in bad luck protection it was a guaranteed drop in week 15, week 8 if clearing mythic. Or let´s say weeks 18 and 10 to account for progression. The same applies to Nasz’uro, and presumably to any legendaries going forward.
18 weeks is just over half the season… while it´s certainly annoying, that still leaves more than enough time for teh big end of season rating and title push
And that is a very significant difference in the way items like that work. There you absolutely can guarantee the drop eventually simply by engaging with the content
haha… got lost in the argument. Sorry.
I dont like to have to farm Raids. Its annoying.
Pugging is out of question.
Guilds require scheduling which is out of question.
So I only have 2 options:
- Go with out it.
- Get boosted.
I try to go with out it. Most of the time. But sometimes the item in question is simply so OP that I have to have it. I don’t play for “title” but I do play in a range that having 10% disadvantage is noticeable.
And I dont like this situation.
And I would say exactly the same for M+
That´s the thing, at the end of the day we are both effectively arguing for the exact same thing, just from different sides of the same coin, with reasons that are equally valid.
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This is a nice conclusion. Yes.
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