I noticed recently quite a lot of Deathcharger mounts on Mirage Raceway (and people I know on other servers have echoed the same).
The way the wikis, the elders and even the game developers discussed this mount, it was significantly rare.
I understand that grind groups (Cleave, AOE etc) are more common now, however the drop rate was so low that statistically speaking, you couldn’t have enough speeds runs to make a noticeable dent in the probability.
Couple that with the dungeon access limit per hour and it’s pretty astronomical.
I also noticed that the majority of people that had them, were not guild leaders or even ‘officers’ of any discernable type, leaving the impression these were likely dropped in PUGs - not exactly an ideal setup for dedicated farming.
What does this all mean? I do not know, purely an observation and given that the forums are littered with threads about whether Classic is actually Classic and the itemization concerns, it seemed interesting.
Any other (that once were)very low drop rate items that you’ve been seeing quite a lot of that you did not expect?
Well the populations are 3 times the size they were in vanilla so 3 times the amount of groups doing the dungeon plus way more farm groups can add up. Maybe lott tables are different due to classic basically being retail with a skin.
Also, the proportion of 60s to the rest of the populace is significantly higher now than back then. Which in turn increases the amount of dungeon runs.
I think the loot tables are daily based. 2 days ago about 7 ppl told me they saw a mount drop, all on the same day. So if you would have grinded strath that day, you would have had a high chance of seeing it drop.
Think of the probability more per server, instead of per player. So take the amount of runs on that server every hour, and then place the individual players who got it into that amount, and you’ll get a rough idea of how many runs it took for it to drop on that server.
Alliance Wise, on Gandling, there are something like 3 or 4 for the whole server.
There is a fresh 60 in greenies with it. I killed Baron across chars around 40 times, never seen it either the sword.
Drops ain’t that random, there is some code as someone above stated since by farming HoJ noticed a kind of “pattern” in the drops and in random boss spawns (arena).
Same goes for the baron drops. In 40 runs only 1 shadowcraft drop, 1 sword, 1 dagger, 6 backs, plenty of healing robes etc.
According to some sources the drop rate is one in 5000. If you had that many level 60 players doing Stratholme just once you’d already get one mount per realm on average. Most people will do this dungeon several times, and many will run a lot of them for either certain gear or in extreme cases farming the mount itself.
If you consider that the most active players are the most likely to have the mount (and therefore to show it around), there’s nothing rare about seeing a bunch of them after a few of months.
We wouldn’t know without collecting information from thousands and thousands of rolls. What any individual players sees in a dozen of dungeon runs is meaningless statistically speaking.
There’s absolutely no data supporting that theory, and really no reason to implement such an absurd system.
If seven people guessed the lottery numbers today it would still not mean you’re more likely to win on a Tuesday. In your case (assuming it happened exactly like you say and nobody was exaggerating) there’s also a good chance some of those 7 were the same drop.
For example there are peeps doing straight dozens over dozenz of HoJ runs with the same peeps and never seen it drop.
I’ve done for example 10 stealth runs and saw it drops 2 times.
Other patterns are like doing arena for a certain amount of times, always the Ogre boss to spawn - ALWAYS - , or killing the Golemlord boss, always the shoes to drop (vendored plenty) costantly across the whole afternoon and a dozen of kills.
Killing baron 4 times in an afternoon, always healing robe to drop in sequence.
Random ain’t really random, is a sum of multiple factors that combined generates a number. Given the same factors, output will be the very same.
Thereby a “pattern” to be seen, in the drop trama.
If you throw two dice over and over at some point someone’s going to see three “double 6” in a row. Or maybe you’ll throw it a hundred times without seeing a single 3+4. That still doesn’t mean your dice aren’t random.
We’re thousands of players. Necessarily some players will see peculiar “patterns” like both Dal’rend’s weapons dropping at the same time twice in a row, and there’s probably some warrior out there that killed another one by critting 10 times one after another. But that’s just how chance works, and not a real pattern that will repeat itself or influence future rolls in any way.
We can get philosophical here but strictly speaking random is random (although perhaps the more accurate word here would be uncorrelated, meaning the drop chance doesn’t depend on previous rolls). Computer-generated random numbers are actually pseudorandom, because they’re technically deterministic (the same inputs generate the same results), but they typically use complex enough functions of reasonably uncontrollable variables (such as the timestamp of the computer at the moment of the roll) to make them virtually indistinguishable from ideal non-deterministic events.
In vanilla, servers had say 10,000 active players. Not all of them reached level 60. And not all the level 60s regular ran dungeons.
On classic, you might have 50,000 active players racing to 60 and once there, everyone does dungeons.
The odds of it dropping are actually very high probably like 95%+ when you consider how many thousands of players have killed the Baron on your server.
Loads came through from the layering abuse in dungeons at the start. You could literally kill the last boss, and layer yourself to a fresh dungeon, stood at the last boss. Plenty of people abused the hell out of it for over a week, getting 100s of kills in one night. They got a 2 month ban if I’m not mistaken, meaning they’ve just come back in. From what I saw nothing got stripped either?
Uh no, there was around 3k, give or take a couple of hundred, per server. They weren’t set to handle higher numbers.
It’s around 10k+ now in classic.
But you’re misunderstanding the way probability works.
It’s true that the chance stacks up the more times it’s repeated, for example the chance to get heads at least once when flipping a coin is increased dramatically if you flip it 100 times compared to if you only flip it once.
While you’re very likely to see at least one having dropped after all of those thousands of times it has been done on the server, the chance of you being in that one run when it does drop, is still extremely tiny.
To go by your logic, I’m 100% guaranteed to see a lottery win. Doesn’t mean the chance of being the one who wins the lottery has increased any further though.
